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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #1,061
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:24am Oct 7, 2011 11:24am
Here is my live chart.
Now I have 3 shorts again.
The original at 1.3773 and two new ones (1.3513 and 1.3460)

Someone on CNBC said "The euro is dead... bury it"
Well not quite but it is certainly very ill.

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,062
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:25am Oct 7, 2011 11:25am
I took a short at 1.347 based on my falling channel and major resistance at 1.351... It's paying off.. You better get in I think this is the one!
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #1,063
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:28am Oct 7, 2011 11:28am
Ah, PT you must be feeling pretty smart about now...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #1,064
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:29am Oct 7, 2011 11:29am
Quoting BullsVsBears
I took a short at 1.347 based on my falling channel and major resistance at 1.351... It's paying off.. You better get in I think this is the one!
Fitch has downgraded credit ratings of both Italy and Spain.

I am now expecting a default of Greece. Some say it will be orderly. I seriously doubt it

I am in with 3 short positions and I am keeping them

Periscope down
Prepare to dive

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,065
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:30am Oct 7, 2011 11:30am
Quoting AaronWard
Ah, PT you must be feeling pretty smart about now...
Actually Aaron I am disappointed. I expected the reversal to end at 1.3360

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,066
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:32am Oct 7, 2011 11:32am
A shooting star formed on the 1hr and 5min. It looks like the sentiment has gone bearish again. Strong resistance at 1.351
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #1,067
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:36am Oct 7, 2011 11:36am
I still need to see a break and hold below the sell zone to be sure we have a sell-off. But it's a good start.

I'm in anyway so worst case I break even today but I am 90% committed to these shorts right now.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,068
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:43am Oct 7, 2011 11:43am
If the bears can hold for the next 2 hrs we'll have a dark cloud cover or bear engulfing on a 4hr. This will confirm the bears have taken control and the train will leave the station. I'm 95% certain we've made the right decision!
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #1,069
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:47am Oct 7, 2011 11:47am
THAR SHE BLOWS!!!! Thank you Fitch.

So far my macro is right, got in at 1.351 on the short, how far on a technical basis would the more seasoned chartists say this has to run on the downside? To me it looks like 1.337 is where it should find some support before resuming south. As more of a short term trader than a long term position holder historically, I would normally close out and wait for the next bounce, in fact I might even go long for a few minutes.

Secondarily, at what types of levels would you look to add more short positions? I see this heading south of 1.30 eventually over the next week or so, but everyone here seems to do things differently. Interested in input.
  • #1,070
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:50am Oct 7, 2011 11:50am
Quoting BullsVsBears
If the bears can hold for the next 2 hrs we'll have a dark cloud cover or bear engulfing on a 4hr. This will confirm the bears have taken control and the train will leave the station. I'm 95% certain we've made the right decision!


we need to see a daily close below 1.3350

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,071
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:54am Oct 7, 2011 11:54am
Quoting ntrprz
THAR SHE BLOWS!!!! Thank you Fitch.

So far my macro is right, got in at 1.351 on the short, how far on a technical basis would the more seasoned chartists say this has to run on the downside? To me it looks like 1.337 is where it should find some support before resuming south. As more of a short term trader than a long term position holder historically, I would normally close out and wait for the next bounce, in fact I might even go long for a few minutes.

Secondarily, at what types of levels would you look to add more short positions?...
If we get a daily close below 1.3350, we will see 1.2910. the only variable is when. Probably next week.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,072
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:56am Oct 7, 2011 11:56am
I think someone is looking down on me today im long on brent oil since 102.80 and am short from 1.3480 the selling has turned into buying in brent oil while the selling continues in eur/usd. This is great!!!!!
  • #1,073
  • Oct 7, 2011 11:58am Oct 7, 2011 11:58am
Quoting RodMca
I think someone is looking down on me today im long on brent oil since 102.80 and am short from 1.3480 the selling has turned into buying in brent oil while the selling continues in eur/usd. This is great!!!!!
Congrats Rod
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,074
  • Oct 7, 2011 12:00pm Oct 7, 2011 12:00pm
Quoting PipTrapper
If we get a daily close below 1.3350, we will see 1.2910. the only variable is when. Probably next week.
If we fail to hit that level by the end of today, is that considered bullish and that this is just a short term reaction to news on the way to a full correction up to 1.38 or so? Or would you look for it to gap further over the weekend?

By the way, Governmental intervention in currencies happens also, what are indicators to look for at a government might screw things one way or the other, like recently the Swiss? Is there anyone in power who has a vested interest in seeing the Euro not go below a certain level? It seem to me if anything the ECB needs a weaker currency to help economic growth and make it easier to pay the bills. In the US, it would seem a stronger dollar while perhaps hurting exports, would help the overall economy by lowering energy costs going into winter, which helps the government as they have already wanted to cut assistance to low income.

I don't see any part that really wants a stronger Euro right now. Who am I missing?

PS, I just closed my trade at 1.339 and will watch for a bit I think.
  • #1,075
  • Oct 7, 2011 12:01pm Oct 7, 2011 12:01pm
Closed shorts couple of days ago, jumped back in last night and this morning, didn't get top but did average in. Coming up on pivot, if it goes through and close below may pick up a little more. See chart below if I attached correctly
  • #1,076
  • Oct 7, 2011 12:03pm Oct 7, 2011 12:03pm
Thanks PT, was getting quite worried we'd see a break above 1.3520 but thankfully held out. Lets hope for that close below 1.3350. Maybe even test 1.2640 next week seeing as we took out two supports this week! Oh and 110 in Brent would be nice ha!
  • #1,077
  • Oct 7, 2011 12:06pm Oct 7, 2011 12:06pm
Quoting ntrprz
If we fail to hit that level by the end of today, is that considered bullish and that this is just a short term reaction to news on the way to a full correction up to 1.38 or so? Or would you look for it to gap further over the weekend?
No, the Bulls have already lost control. We are neutral above 1.3350. Below there, the bears will be in control.

Quoting ntrprz
By the way, Governmental intervention in currencies happens also, what are indicators to look for at a government might screw things one way or the other, like recently the Swiss? ...
zero to none. The ECB and the Fed intervene with notice. No surprises. The two are the most liquid currencies in the world and also the two official reserve currencies. If they intervene without notice, we would end up in a global currency war and nobody wants that.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,078
  • Oct 7, 2011 12:08pm Oct 7, 2011 12:08pm
Quoting RodMca
Thanks PT, was getting quite worried we'd see a break above 1.3520 but thankfully held out. Lets hope for that close below 1.3350. Maybe even test 1.2640 next week seeing as we took out two supports this week! Oh and 110 in Brent would be nice ha!
I'll be drinking some champagne to that tonight after NY close


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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #1,079
  • Oct 7, 2011 12:09pm Oct 7, 2011 12:09pm
Nice sell off and that could hold until the weekly close. Looks like everybody's on the green size again ... No more saying: when thing turn to be great, there's something that messes it up.

Pbh
  • #1,080
  • Oct 7, 2011 12:09pm Oct 7, 2011 12:09pm
Quoting RodMca
Thanks PT, was getting quite worried we'd see a break above 1.3520 but thankfully held out. Lets hope for that close below 1.3350. Maybe even test 1.2640 next week seeing as we took out two supports this week! Oh and 110 in Brent would be nice ha!
Where do you think Gold is heading. I am projecting below 1500
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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