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EurAnalysis

  • #921
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:01am Oct 7, 2011 3:01am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
Hi Swede,
One of the ways (there are others) to identify a retrace is with Fib lines.
Typically a retrace will only do 61.8% of a move. However, it can do 100% also. 100% is considered double top (or double bottom depending on the direction of course)
Basically until price exceeds 100% of the original move, it is still a retrace. Over 100% it is considered a reversal when it also has a reversal pattern with it. However, both retraces and reversals mean nothing because they can still quickly change direction. You don't really know 100% until it is...
I agree. Most of current NFP analysis show bearish for EUR/USD and price is hitting resistance. My estimate is that we see 1.32ish at closing of market. But as everybody should know - my crystal ball is malfunctioning and thats why I have to read market news
  • #922
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:17am Oct 7, 2011 3:17am
ABC Continuation?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #923
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:28am Oct 7, 2011 3:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
ABC Continuation?
harmonics 101
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #924
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:31am Oct 7, 2011 3:31am
Yes but still believe we are in A and haven't seen B yet.
  • #925
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:32am Oct 7, 2011 3:32am
Quoting AFXFin
I agree. Most of current NFP analysis show bearish for EUR/USD and price is hitting resistance. My estimate is that we see 1.32ish at closing of market. But as everybody should know - my crystal ball is malfunctioning and thats why I have to read market news
Welcome to EurAnalysis AFXFin,
Thanks for posting.
Have you read page 1 yet? If so, that's great
Looking forward to your participation here
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #926
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:35am Oct 7, 2011 3:35am
Quoting KenFx
Yes but still believe we are in A and haven't seen B yet.
Yes it is possible that we are in the ABC of the A. In which case we will be looking for a retrace up to 1.3625 area after we form a B around 1.3275

However, the fundamentals will dictate that after the NFP report.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #927
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:41am Oct 7, 2011 3:41am
Agree, fundementals will need to play out. They are saying 1bln expiries at 1.3500 and 2bln expiries at 1.3400, do you think this will keep us range bound today until Monday?
  • #928
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:46am Oct 7, 2011 3:46am
congrats to PT for the vouch

i see the abc pattern piptrapper's analyzing and heres my elliot wave view on it..

They say if u have 2 or more elliot wave traders in ONE room, they can argue on and on on wave counts lol.


sorry for the handwriting.. its paint..

ADD: it could also be the 3rd wave of the big wave down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #929
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:47am Oct 7, 2011 3:47am
Quoting KenFx
Agree, fundementals will need to play out. They are saying 1bln expiries at 1.3500 and 2bln expiries at 1.3400, do you think this will keep us range bound today until Monday?
I feel that if the NFP either exceeds or fails to meet expectations, that will be an overwhelming force on the markets and it will dictate future price over everything else (at least till sometime on Monday anyway). Then we get to re-analyze.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #930
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:56am Oct 7, 2011 3:56am
Quoting bumapatria
congrats to PT for the vouch
Thanks buma
.
Quoting bumapatria
i see the abc pattern piptrapper's analyzing and heres my elliot wave view on it..

They say if u have 2 or more elliot wave traders in ONE room, they can argue on and on on wave counts lol.


sorry for the handwriting.. its paint..

ADD: it could also be the 3rd wave of the big wave down.
Whatever it is, I'm still keeping my shorts on

I've pretty much given up on trying to predict elliot wave counts. I only consider them once they are fully formed.
I pretty much stick to basic harmonic patterns when they correlate to s/r, fibs, supp/dem and trendlines/channels. Furthermore, there has to be fundamental confirmation, otherwise I ignore everything.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #931
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:58am Oct 7, 2011 3:58am
Hi PipTrader, this thread looks very populated, congratulation.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #932
  • Oct 7, 2011 3:58am Oct 7, 2011 3:58am
Quoting PipTrapper
Thanks buma
.


Whatever it is, I'm still keeping my shorts on

I've pretty much given up on trying to predict elliot wave counts. I only consider them once they are fully formed.
I pretty much stick to basic harmonic patterns when they correlate to s/r, fibs, supp/dem and trendlines/channels. Furthermore, there has to be fundamental confirmation, otherwise I ignore everything.

yup dude, i dont trade eli waves. i just look like i know about it lol. Harmonics are great, especially when trading it while it is formed. Thats what i love to do
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #933
  • Oct 7, 2011 4:00am Oct 7, 2011 4:00am
Quoting mla
Hi PipTrader, this thread looks very populated, congratulation.

mla
Thanks mla. Don't be a stranger
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #934
  • Oct 7, 2011 4:03am Oct 7, 2011 4:03am
Quoting PipTrapper
Trend line Resistance on E/U & E/J. Trend line and almost S1 Support on U/J
Price is currently being well rejected with PA confirmation at the resistances and the support I mentioned in the quoted post.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #935
  • Oct 7, 2011 4:05am Oct 7, 2011 4:05am
oil forming or formed double top.

or not...

my sell stop triggered.

What i see this into eur/usd is that they move as one, as with gold and silver.

Im short on gold, and im in profit.

theres still no clear direction for now, before that NFP stuff.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #936
  • Oct 7, 2011 4:08am Oct 7, 2011 4:08am
Quoting PipTrapper
Thanks mla. Don't be a stranger
I will pop in for an espresso with grappa.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #937
  • Oct 7, 2011 4:13am Oct 7, 2011 4:13am
Just from experience trading the Eur/Usd on NFP news, I have learned that it is best to not trade it until around 15 minutes after the release or when it is clear that the dust has settled from all the volatility.

This is because sometimes, the initial direction on the Euro is not the longer term one.

Just a heads up to those who don't already know that.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #938
  • Oct 7, 2011 4:14am Oct 7, 2011 4:14am
A possible double bottom bull flag forming.

mla
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 30 KB
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #939
  • Oct 7, 2011 4:16am Oct 7, 2011 4:16am
Quoting PipTrapper
Just from experience trading the Eur/Usd on NFP news, I have learned that it is best to not trade it until around 15 minutes after the release or when it is clear that the dust has settled from all the volatility.

This is because sometimes, the initial direction on the Euro is not the longer term one.

Just a heads up to those who don't already know that.

Cheers
PT
What time does come out?

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #940
  • Oct 7, 2011 4:17am Oct 7, 2011 4:17am
Quoting bumapatria
oil forming or formed double top.

or not...

my sell stop triggered.

What i see this into eur/usd is that they move as one, as with gold and silver.

Im short on gold, and im in profit.

theres still no clear direction for now, before that NFP stuff.
It's not that they move as one but it is more the risk-on/risk-off phenomenon.
Both the euro and commodities are considered risk instruments.

If you want to trade a pair which is more closely correlated to Oil, take a look at USD/CAD. As Oil gains, so does CAD. I am not sure because I haven't looked but I believe the same applies to the AUD
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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