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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #881
  • Oct 6, 2011 11:12am Oct 6, 2011 11:12am
what amazes me is bloomberg, cnbc, ... all they wanna talk about is Steve Jobs today... I guess they find it more fun than talking about financial numbers..
  • #882
  • Oct 6, 2011 11:16am Oct 6, 2011 11:16am
BRICs to the rescue -NOT!

A very good read if you have some time.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #883
  • Oct 6, 2011 11:18am Oct 6, 2011 11:18am
Quoting drtorque
what amazes me is bloomberg, cnbc, ... all they wanna talk about is Steve Jobs today... I guess they find it more fun than talking about financial numbers..
That's probably because they're not sure how to read the latest financial numbers and frankly I don't blame them. It's a big mess out there. Loads of talk and no walk.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #884
  • Oct 6, 2011 11:30am Oct 6, 2011 11:30am
Not to be rude or anything but hey piptrapper dont you wanna check that sell limit of yours cause i think the price should make it to 1.3499 well 1.3503 to be exact but hey dont listen to me cause im most of the time wrong ... well ive place my sell limit there lets see how it plays out
  • #885
  • Oct 6, 2011 11:41am Oct 6, 2011 11:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
That's probably because they're not sure how to read the latest financial numbers and frankly I don't blame them. It's a big mess out there. Loads of talk and no walk.
Obama and Trichet gave a speech today. Apparently, they never met Steve Jobs in person, such losers...
But more important than them we have Steve's primary school friend here. Tell us was he a visionary student back then, did he carry apple in his lunch box?
  • #886
  • Oct 6, 2011 11:50am Oct 6, 2011 11:50am
Quoting drtorque
Obama and Trichet gave a speech today. Apparently, they never met Steve Jobs in person, such losers...
But more important than them we have Steve's primary school friend here. Tell us was he a visionary student back then, did he carry apple in his lunch box?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #887
  • Oct 6, 2011 11:54am Oct 6, 2011 11:54am
We have now reached the top of the rising channel RCH-1 coinciding with Falling Trend line (FTL-1)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #888
  • Oct 6, 2011 12:28pm Oct 6, 2011 12:28pm
I come back from school and wow. What happened to the markets? can anyone answer this one ?

Pbh
  • #889
  • Oct 6, 2011 12:43pm Oct 6, 2011 12:43pm
Pbh here's the answer


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  • #890
  • Oct 6, 2011 12:45pm Oct 6, 2011 12:45pm
Quoting Gofer Pips

I guess SL at BE saved me from this one
  • #891
  • Oct 6, 2011 12:56pm Oct 6, 2011 12:56pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Pbh here's the answer


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-22tna7KHzI

That's too funny
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #892
  • Oct 6, 2011 1:22pm Oct 6, 2011 1:22pm
This is what I was explaining to CommercialB earlier but this article does a much better job of explaining it.

Here is the excerpt and I have supplied a link to the source article at the bottom of this post:

What to Expect from Market Reaction

Better Than Expected Report - A jobs figure that surprises on the upside would have 2 impacts – it should be help to boost US equities but also help the dollar to gain.

Usually these two markets move opposite to each other as the US dollar is considered a safe haven, and during times of risk appetite or when equities are climbing then the dollar weakens. However in this particular indicator, when it comes to jobs and the labor market, the impact is more direct on the US dollar. Why? Well it’s because good news on the jobs front would mean that the Federal Reserve would have less pressure to follow through with further monetary easing in order to help the jobs picture. That then is a positive for the US dollar. Now we still may see the US dollar weaken if risk appetite is very strong, but the non-farm payroll does tend to have this dual impact.

Weaker Than Expected Reading – A weaker than expected reading would add further pressure on the Fed to act and therefore would weaken the US dollar from a monetary policy perspective. However a weaker jobs reading would also pressured stocks and risk appetite and therefore safe haven currencies like the Japanese yen and US dollar should benefit.

Therefore it’s always a little tricky trading to non-farm payroll report, trying to anticipate beforehand exactly which way the market will take the news.

Source article: http://www.fxtimes.com/fundamental-updates/previewing-the-september-non-farm-payroll-report/

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #893
  • Oct 6, 2011 1:30pm Oct 6, 2011 1:30pm
Gofer Pips: I hope sth like that won't happen with my account, but with EUR instead

Just curious, what NFP are you guys expecting? Personally, I think that it will be better than last '0' and perhaps better than estimates. But this week I am doing things so badly, that I prefer not to think of NFP. I just know it will be a good time to sit in front of chart and watch the price carefully.

And, is there any value, that would extend our correction and support higher (EDIT: Oh, I see PT answered my question before i finished writing it )? Because I don't see NFP as a threat to EURUSD downtrend, either the positive or negative final result.

I mean, bad data means more risk off means USD up as a safe haven.
Good data means less risk of QE3, so if any got priced in its effect shall disappear.

Don't you get the feeling, that the market is waiting again fo sth that is not going to happen? Or, perhaps, for any data of significant importance, so the analysts have sth to blame for another fall of the Euro?

Btw, I just noticed my strategy for tomorrow would be really painfull if the correction turned out to be a temporary reversal, as I might hit my 'maximum allowable loss limit' easily, since I was planning to play bigger positions as usual. I will need to rethink that... Perhaps I will try scaling in when the train starts instead...

Well, either way, I am going to bed right now. Good night to everyone.
  • #894
  • Oct 6, 2011 1:32pm Oct 6, 2011 1:32pm
PT,

I read this also and it seems to me that the Dollar would fare better against the Euro if we have a risk off trade even though Dollar could strengthen on good news due to delay of any QE3. What are your thoughts? Mine on this article




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  • #895
  • Oct 6, 2011 1:41pm Oct 6, 2011 1:41pm
Regardless of which way she rolls tomorrow on the NFP, the problems in the EZ will not be gone come Sunday opening and there should be a correction of the correction!

I am interested in what may happen in the Asian session into opening hours of London
  • #896
  • Oct 6, 2011 1:56pm Oct 6, 2011 1:56pm
Quoting Blobik
.../ Oh, I see PT answered my question before i finished writing it )? Because I don't see NFP as a threat to EURUSD downtrend, either the positive or negative final result. ...

.../Btw, I just noticed my strategy for tomorrow would be really painfull if the correction turned out to be a temporary reversal, as I might hit my 'maximum allowable loss limit' easily, since I was planning to play bigger positions as usual. I will need to rethink that... Perhaps I will try scaling in when the train starts instead...
Blobik,

Make sure you read the full article. The link is at the bottom of my previous post.

As for scaling in, I would highly recommend.

This is the reaction I feel the EUR/USD will see in the four possible scenarios:

1. NFP at or a bit better than expectation: The uptake in USD value will be short lived and the rally in equities may keep going. Therefore the Euro will drop and then either stabilize or retrace a bit but not for long. Monday may see more EUR/USD losses.

2. NFP much better than expectations: The uptake in USD will last longer but the the uptake in risk currencies will be stronger in the long run so the Euro may start off stable and then take off to the upside.

3. NFP a bit lower than expectations: Expect the euro to go down to retest the lows and probably finish there for the weekend with a possible small gap on Monday when it could lose a bit more.

4. NFP much lower than expectations: The euro will plummet into the close, gap on the weekend and continue downwards on Monday with a clear break of the lows.

Good night

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #897
  • Oct 6, 2011 2:03pm Oct 6, 2011 2:03pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Regardless of which way she rolls tomorrow on the NFP, the problems in the EZ will not be gone come Sunday opening and there should be a correction of the correction!

I am interested in what may happen in the Asian session into opening hours of London
Gofer,

That's also a coin toss.

However, considering that usually on an NFP day, the market stays in a tight range until the release, and considering we have hit major resistance at 1.3420/40 area and are also sitting at the top of the rising channel resistance, I project a painfully slow retrace of today's move up (probably down to the 1.3350 area.

Cheers and good night,
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #898
  • Oct 6, 2011 4:57pm Oct 6, 2011 4:57pm
Price broke the 1.341 area. Price is now constrained so strong resistance is at my 21 EMA 1.359.. I'm looking for a possible short soon!
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I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #899
  • Oct 6, 2011 5:22pm Oct 6, 2011 5:22pm
Although price movement is counter trend there is a lot of strength coming into the market. It caught me off guard and ran one of my stops (I was swing trading). I guess intra day trading is the way to go.
  • #900
  • Oct 6, 2011 6:32pm Oct 6, 2011 6:32pm
When we look at the fall of the Euro, from 1.45 to 1.315 in a few weeks, it is important to remember that what really happened is the Euro fell about 500 pips and the USD rose by about 1000 pips. Look at gold, or oil, or the CAD and you will see what I mean.

Yesterdays adventure was the USD fall, not the euro rising. You can see this quite clearly if you pull out GBD/USD and USD/CAD.

Of course, you can argue that the USD is rising because the situation in Euroland is bad. And I would agree. And you can argue that yesterday people decided that the Euro would survive Halloween and maybe even Thanksgiving. And I would agree.

My favorite explanation is that while other developed economies are sounding the QE horn, the ECB, central bank for the worlds largest market, says "I think refinancing to the tune of a miserable 40 billion is what I am willing to do."

In this forum, when we say we short the Euro, we are really saying "I think I will buy some USD". If our account is in CAD, then we use our CAD to buy (borrow) Euros which we then use to buy USD. We are left holding USD.

And when it comes to currencies and their power to move markets, it is important to remember that if the Euro is the moon, the USD is the sun.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
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