This was on Reuters
Do your own European bank stress test calculator.
Enjoy.
I'm done for the week, Y'all have fun. I gotta get ready to go to Dallas.
- #862
- Oct 6, 2011 10:12am Oct 6, 2011 10:12am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
This was on Reuters
Do your own European bank stress test calculator.
Enjoy.
I'm done for the week, Y'all have fun. I gotta get ready to go to Dallas.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #863
- Oct 6, 2011 10:17am Oct 6, 2011 10:17am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Scratching my head. | 3,578 Posts
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
- #864
- Oct 6, 2011 10:28am Oct 6, 2011 10:28am
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: FXCM Representative | 5,808 Posts
I have already resolved the issue with the audit team and according to the email I received, they will be crediting my account with the slippage difference within the next 3 business days.
I'm a happy camper
Cheers........
- Jason
- #865
- Oct 6, 2011 10:33am Oct 6, 2011 10:33am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #866
- Oct 6, 2011 10:33am Oct 6, 2011 10:33am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #867
- Edited 1:25pm Oct 6, 2011 10:57am | Edited 1:25pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Well it seems we got a bear squeeze today. My sides are hurting 
Like AaronWard said, the Euro threw a party in honour of Trichet's departure.
No worries though. I am on it.
As mentioned earlier, the pair has retested the highs. However, it managed to break through into the upper zone which I didn't really expect but I am not altogether very surprised.
Since I now have two lows to go by, I have drawn a new rising channel (RCH-1) on those two points. Price is now pretty close to the top of that channel at the 1.3430 area (the channel top is a moving target and gets higher by the hour but right now is around the 1.3450 area)
I also take note of the fib drawn on the chart. Price has reached and closed above the 50% line and the next target (61.8%) falls at the 1.3475 area. If prices reaches that area tomorrow, then my sell limit order at 1.3480 will get triggered. It it doesn't manage to pierce up through the 61.8 line enough to trigger me, I may just take a market order in that region.
I have also created a new sell zone. This one is deeper than the last, starting around current price at 1.3412 and ending around 1.3545
I am still bearish on the Euro for many fundamental reasons already repeatedly explained and I also believe that the euro will resume it's downtrend fairly shortly. It may even happen after NFP tomorrow depending on how the numbers come in. Even if we get a slightly better than expected number, the USD may stage a comeback as fears of a Fed QE3 ease, which may put some pressure on the pair. Obviously a bad number will see the Euro tank faster.
In the mean time, I will be staying tuned for up to the minute news from the Euro Zone regarding the debt crisis and the bank capitalization issues.
Be careful out there fellow traders. Like I said last Sunday, it's going to be a rough ride.
.
Like AaronWard said, the Euro threw a party in honour of Trichet's departure.
No worries though. I am on it.
As mentioned earlier, the pair has retested the highs. However, it managed to break through into the upper zone which I didn't really expect but I am not altogether very surprised.
Since I now have two lows to go by, I have drawn a new rising channel (RCH-1) on those two points. Price is now pretty close to the top of that channel at the 1.3430 area (the channel top is a moving target and gets higher by the hour but right now is around the 1.3450 area)
I also take note of the fib drawn on the chart. Price has reached and closed above the 50% line and the next target (61.8%) falls at the 1.3475 area. If prices reaches that area tomorrow, then my sell limit order at 1.3480 will get triggered. It it doesn't manage to pierce up through the 61.8 line enough to trigger me, I may just take a market order in that region.
I have also created a new sell zone. This one is deeper than the last, starting around current price at 1.3412 and ending around 1.3545
I am still bearish on the Euro for many fundamental reasons already repeatedly explained and I also believe that the euro will resume it's downtrend fairly shortly. It may even happen after NFP tomorrow depending on how the numbers come in. Even if we get a slightly better than expected number, the USD may stage a comeback as fears of a Fed QE3 ease, which may put some pressure on the pair. Obviously a bad number will see the Euro tank faster.
In the mean time, I will be staying tuned for up to the minute news from the Euro Zone regarding the debt crisis and the bank capitalization issues.
Be careful out there fellow traders. Like I said last Sunday, it's going to be a rough ride.
.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #868
- Oct 6, 2011 11:03am Oct 6, 2011 11:03am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #869
- Oct 6, 2011 11:08am Oct 6, 2011 11:08am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Scratching my head. | 3,578 Posts
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
- #870
- Oct 6, 2011 11:18am Oct 6, 2011 11:18am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
PT -- I don't really understand what the ECB is doing in terms of bank recapitalization. Did you follow the following:
The ECB will not re-capitalize, I am not sure they are even allowed to do that. The re-capitalization will be done by the bank's home country governments, most likely in the form of partial nationalization, or an outright bailout at the cost of taxpayers.
ADD: Just to make it clear, LTROs (long term refinancing operations) are put in place to refinance the collateral that the bank is holding (corporate/consumer loans / equities / bonds / etc). This provides the banks with liquidity (cash)
Therefore in a way, the ECB is taking on risk on it's balance sheet because if the borrowing bank fails, the ecb is left holding the bag but can then take to collateral and sell it to another bank (probably at a discount)
Banks never give money to other banks, they only lend it.
Governments never lend money to banks, they only give it after they steal it from the people.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #872
- Oct 6, 2011 11:30am Oct 6, 2011 11:30am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Scratching my head. | 3,578 Posts
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
- #873
- Oct 6, 2011 11:37am Oct 6, 2011 11:37am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
so why is there a headline out "ECB does the QE dance"? Are they just making stuff up?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #874
- Oct 6, 2011 11:44am Oct 6, 2011 11:44am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Scratching my head. | 3,578 Posts
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
- #875
- Edited 12:22pm Oct 6, 2011 12:06pm | Edited 12:22pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Compliments on the thread PT! I'm not up to chart posting level just yet, however your thread is very helpful & encouraging and hopefully soon with all I learn from your thread I'll be contributing too ... can't wait! :-).
Glad to have you here and looking forward to your contributions.
If you haven't already done so, please read page 1. Thanks in advance
Back to theme, with the crazy correlations we're currently experiencing could better that expected NFP not also mean more risk on and hence weaker "safe haven" dollar? ..just a thought.
Keep up the good work.
However, it's a bit more complicated than that right now. The US dollar is currently being held down by concerns over more Fed easing and is making somewhat of a comeback vs the JPY as a safe haven whenever we see better than expected US econ data. If concerns over QE3 ease, then more money will flow out of the JPY into the USD. Remember we are still in a very bearish equity market and generally it is risk-off but bargain hunters are buying up undervalued equities and dumping riskier assets. As the USD becomes less risky and the Euro remains just as risky or becomes riskier, the EUR/USD will come under pressure. Also consider that the BOJ is in intervention mode so investors looking for a safe haven are more likely to choose the USD over the JPY provided the threat of QE3 was not hanging in the air.
For a perfect example of this, take a look at how the correlation between the EUR/USD and the SP500 was broken in 2010.
I must add a caveat here. Obviously if the NFP number comes out much better than expected, expect the USD to come under considerable pressure while the equity markets are rallying which would obviously help the EUR/USD.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #876
- Oct 6, 2011 12:11pm Oct 6, 2011 12:11pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #878
- Oct 6, 2011 12:45pm Oct 6, 2011 12:45pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
The following story reminds me of the situation Europe is in. Trying to do the impossible by kicking the can down the road. Enjoy
There’s a famous story involving the Persian philosopher and fool-figure, Mullah Nasrudin. One day, he was watching the Sultan of Baghdad tame a new horse. Suddenly, the Sultan was flung from the back of a new wild stallion brought to his stables from Bactria (modern-day Afghanistan). The horse was wild and uncontrollable. Nasrudin began laughing because the Sultan was covered in dirt and manure.
Angrily, the Sultan rose to his feet and ordered his bodyguards to arrest Nasrudin. "Why are you laughing at me?" the Sultan asked. "Because I was flung from my horse?"
"No," said Nasrudin the fool. "Because you are trying so hard to tame the horse in a single day, and failing. You should stick to what you are good at, not breaking horses."
The Sultan grew red-faced. "I suppose," he said, "that you could do better?"
"Oh yes," said Nasrudin, and he grew boastful. "I could tame that horse," and here he snapped his fingers, "like that! But better than that… because of my great wisdom, if I had a year…. well, I could teach that stallion to talk!"
The Sultan smiled an evil smile. "In that case," said the Sultan, "you may have a year. In a year, I expect this beast to be a trained, talking war-horse. And if not, I shall take his head, and yours, and mount them both on spikes above my gate for insolence!" And the Sultan stomped away.
Nasrudin’s followers wept, and tore at their beards. They urged Nasrudin to come with them, and escape! But Nasrudin only went into the paddock with the wild horse, and picked a handful of sweet grass, and tried to get the horse to eat it. Again and again, the horse only ran away, or kicked at him. This went on for months. Finally, one of Nasrudin’s disciples asked him, "Master, why do you not run away? The horse is dangerous, and the Sultan is even more dangerous. Why not give up this mad pursuit?"
Nasrudin shrugged. "Ah, my disciple, how little you know! A lot can change in a year. The Sultan could die of old age, or an assassin’s knife. He could be strangled in his harem by a jealous concubine. I could die, of disease or age. I might feel an urge to make the hajj and go to Mecca, and even the Sultan could not refuse me that. I could be laid low by a wasting sickness, or there could be a palace coup, or the Mongols may invade."
"But, master" said the student in a doubtful voice, "that does not explain why you persist, day after day, in trying to tame this dangerous and wild stallion."
Nasrudin smiled, "Oh, that. Well, a lot can happen in a year. It may even be that I shall succeed in teaching the horse to talk."
There’s a famous story involving the Persian philosopher and fool-figure, Mullah Nasrudin. One day, he was watching the Sultan of Baghdad tame a new horse. Suddenly, the Sultan was flung from the back of a new wild stallion brought to his stables from Bactria (modern-day Afghanistan). The horse was wild and uncontrollable. Nasrudin began laughing because the Sultan was covered in dirt and manure.
Angrily, the Sultan rose to his feet and ordered his bodyguards to arrest Nasrudin. "Why are you laughing at me?" the Sultan asked. "Because I was flung from my horse?"
"No," said Nasrudin the fool. "Because you are trying so hard to tame the horse in a single day, and failing. You should stick to what you are good at, not breaking horses."
The Sultan grew red-faced. "I suppose," he said, "that you could do better?"
"Oh yes," said Nasrudin, and he grew boastful. "I could tame that horse," and here he snapped his fingers, "like that! But better than that… because of my great wisdom, if I had a year…. well, I could teach that stallion to talk!"
The Sultan smiled an evil smile. "In that case," said the Sultan, "you may have a year. In a year, I expect this beast to be a trained, talking war-horse. And if not, I shall take his head, and yours, and mount them both on spikes above my gate for insolence!" And the Sultan stomped away.
Nasrudin’s followers wept, and tore at their beards. They urged Nasrudin to come with them, and escape! But Nasrudin only went into the paddock with the wild horse, and picked a handful of sweet grass, and tried to get the horse to eat it. Again and again, the horse only ran away, or kicked at him. This went on for months. Finally, one of Nasrudin’s disciples asked him, "Master, why do you not run away? The horse is dangerous, and the Sultan is even more dangerous. Why not give up this mad pursuit?"
Nasrudin shrugged. "Ah, my disciple, how little you know! A lot can change in a year. The Sultan could die of old age, or an assassin’s knife. He could be strangled in his harem by a jealous concubine. I could die, of disease or age. I might feel an urge to make the hajj and go to Mecca, and even the Sultan could not refuse me that. I could be laid low by a wasting sickness, or there could be a palace coup, or the Mongols may invade."
"But, master" said the student in a doubtful voice, "that does not explain why you persist, day after day, in trying to tame this dangerous and wild stallion."
Nasrudin smiled, "Oh, that. Well, a lot can happen in a year. It may even be that I shall succeed in teaching the horse to talk."
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
If you haven't already done so, please read page 1. Thanks in advance
...The US dollar is currently being held down by concerns over more Fed easing and is making somewhat of a comeback vs the JPY as a safe haven whenever we see better than expected US econ data. If concerns over QE3 ease, then more money will flow out of the JPY into the USD...As the USD becomes less risky and the Euro remains just as risky or becomes riskier, the EUR/USD will come under pressure....
Hadn't been considering significance of QE3 angle..thanks for that.
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
- #880
- Oct 6, 2011 12:57pm Oct 6, 2011 12:57pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Hi Everyone!
I'm not a macro genius but...
It seems like most (if not all) of the measures taken by the ECB, IMF and other (Merkozy, European goverments) are just to pump in more cash into the banking system or PIIGS countries or small nonsense policies like ban of short selling financial stocks. There aren't really anything done to the underlying problems (except for GB and Ireland). As long as nothing is done to really fix the problems they will just surface again.
In Sweden we had a real banking crisis in the 90's and a lot of budget...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it