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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #801
  • Oct 6, 2011 4:55am Oct 6, 2011 4:55am
Quoting Gofer Pips
I closed my sells yesterday at .3362 and .3343 at profit befor NY close to prevent swap, and waited and entered 1/2 standard lot at gap closing and got in at .3390. I have sell limits set for higher levels but news can make you
I'm still holding my 1.3341 short plus I have another sell limit order at 1.3480
I am hoping that price will at least spike up that high during the ECB news conference to trigger my order before plunging down again.
I also still have my 1.3604 and 1.3773 shorts holding
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #802
  • Oct 6, 2011 4:56am Oct 6, 2011 4:56am
(Couldn't post image properly - attached as gifs. Will try to fix that later EDIT: oh, wait, It seems they actually did get posted )

The only thing that was bugging me all the time, is very sharp correction in AUD/USD and USD/CAD, which started seeming more like a reversal. Right now I put sell order, because i spotted chance of returning to downtrend, but I am not completely sure, if the USD is still keen to get stronger.

One graph is M15 for more detailed view and one H1 for more global outlook.

The triangle is a place where I expected a nice sell zone. But it got missed, because AUDUSD returned to the ascending channel after breaking. This created a fear in my head, that it may continue to strenghten against USD. CAD is doing the same. In this situation, EUR seems... undervalued against USD . Can anyone point, what am I missing, so I could have my full faith in EUR down restored ? Because this significant correction in AUD and CAD start to worry me...

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/27/audusde.gif/

http://imageshack.us/f/27/audusde.gif/
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdh1.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #803
  • Oct 6, 2011 5:02am Oct 6, 2011 5:02am
Sorry for the disrespect. Deleted the post. Lets get back to business.

Quoting PipTrapper
This reflects the sentiment of the majority of Americans but unfortunately is quite filled with misguided statements.

On top of that Swede, it is filled with profanity . Please read page 1 again
  • #804
  • Oct 6, 2011 5:06am Oct 6, 2011 5:06am
Quoting Blobik
...Can anyone point, what am I missing, so I could have my full faith in EUR down restored ? Because this significant correction in AUD and CAD start to worry me...
Blobik,
One thing I am considering that you may not have considered is that this is the start of a new quarter where everyone is hopeful, fund manager are still re positioning, headline news is messing with trader sentiment and there is no clear immediate direction.

This happens every quarter and once the ECB and NFP news is over, the original sentiment will be in the forefront.

The sentiment drivers are:
1. Euro debt crisis with no imminent solutions.
2. Global economic slowdown with high risk of recession.
3. American debt (corporate and consumer) is still highly leveraged.
4. European banks are still under-capitalized and only action will fix that, not words. The only action is to provide liquidity (Euro easing).
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #805
  • Oct 6, 2011 5:09am Oct 6, 2011 5:09am
Quoting TheSwede
Sorry for the disrespect. Deleted the post. Lets get back to business.
Cheers mate
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #806
  • Oct 6, 2011 5:22am Oct 6, 2011 5:22am
Quoting osthafen
too much channel-pressure on the gap-resistance
Still a perfect channel - but this time I couldn't resist to place a sell-order at the spike's top .

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pressure2.jpg Size: 125 KB


Cheers
  • #807
  • Edited 5:35am Oct 6, 2011 5:23am | Edited 5:35am
US Libor points to another market downturn

Greek Debt Crisis Timeline of Policy Summits, Bond Maturities

ADD: German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Fall

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #808
  • Oct 6, 2011 5:25am Oct 6, 2011 5:25am
Quoting osthafen
Still a perfect channel - but this time I couldn't resist to place a sell-order at the spike's top .

Attachment

Cheers
Good move. That should be good for at least 40 pips.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #809
  • Oct 6, 2011 5:27am Oct 6, 2011 5:27am
Quoting osthafen
Still a perfect channel - but this time I couldn't resist to place a sell-order at the spike's top .

Attachment

Cheers
Where will be your exit point?
  • #810
  • Oct 6, 2011 5:50am Oct 6, 2011 5:50am
Quoting mkrajaci
Where will be your exit point?

Could have taken the 40 pips right now. I'm usually skalping channels or channel-breakouts. I would find the exit-point using a fibonacci expansion.
But inspired by this thread I think I'll give position-trading a try and hold it all the way down . There's no tight stop to prevent news-spikes stopping me.

Cheers
  • #811
  • Oct 6, 2011 6:11am Oct 6, 2011 6:11am
Quoting osthafen
Could have taken the 40 pips right now. I'm usually skalping channels or channel-breakouts. I would find the exit-point using a fibonacci expansion.
But inspired by this thread I think I'll give position-trading a try and hold it all the way down . There's no tight stop to prevent news-spikes stopping me.

Cheers
Let me explain my position trades before you jump into it at this point.

I am already short at 1.3773 and 1.3604. Therefore I can afford to let my short at 1.3341 go against me for quite some time and still be in overall profit.

The market is currently at a crucial point where the downtrend has decreased in its intensity as it awaits news from the ECb and the NFP report.

I still very strongly believe that the market will go much lower but there is still a possibility that price can retrace up as far as 1.37 before it resumes the downward trend with significant force. My view is that very significant resistance resides at 1.3420 and 1.3480, but these resistance points mean nothing if market sentiment were to change suddenly.

In conclusion, placing a short position here to build a series of positions comes at a greater risk than it was when price was still at 1.38 area

One of the rules I trade with is that price always returns to its mean at some point when momentum diminishes. Has the momentum diminished? In my opinion yes, but I am not saying that it is time to return to the mean yet because the sentiment is still very negative. However, news can change that, and today & tomorrow, we have very high impact news.

As such, please be careful
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #812
  • Oct 6, 2011 6:16am Oct 6, 2011 6:16am
The bulls are unwinding in preparation of the ECB rate statement, especially after the not so encouraging German factory orders report.

German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Fall
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #813
  • Oct 6, 2011 6:21am Oct 6, 2011 6:21am
Important read.....

Trichet Exits on a Low Note
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #814
  • Oct 6, 2011 6:21am Oct 6, 2011 6:21am
Osthafen now you have nice 100 pips. Now is the point will you risk that for bigger pips, or take this profit and go again in sell on higher position.
  • #815
  • Oct 6, 2011 6:35am Oct 6, 2011 6:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
Let me explain my position trades before you jump into it at this point....
As such, please be careful
Thank you very much for your warning - greatly aprechiated!

Just now we had a channel breakout south - a clear downward sign, which gives me also a good buffer of about 100 pips (atm) for spikes.


Also if I look at the monthly channel, there's plenty of room downwards.

I'll see what the news brings - if afterwards the sentiments change I probably close the position.
But there could'nt be a better time for a clear down signal , could it ?

We'll see - thanks a lot again.

Breakout:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pressure3.jpg Size: 131 KB
  • #816
  • Oct 6, 2011 6:38am Oct 6, 2011 6:38am
Quoting osthafen
Thank you very much for your warning - greatly aprechiated!

Just now we had a channel breakout south - a clear downward sign, which gives me also a good buffer of about 100 pips (atm) for spikes.


Also if I look at the monthly channel, there's plenty of room downwards.

I'll see what the news brings - if afterwards the sentiments change I probably close the position.
But there could'nt be a better time for a clear down signal , could it ?

We'll see - thanks a lot again.

Breakout:
Attachment
Absolutely you are correct. The down signals are very strong. That is because they match with current sentiment.

All I was saying is that sentiment can change during or after Trichet speaks.

I am still very bearish.

Best of luck and a truckload of green pips to you
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #817
  • Oct 6, 2011 6:38am Oct 6, 2011 6:38am
This is really nice trade. I finished my work for today, will hear you guys tomorrow.

God bless you all.
  • #818
  • Oct 6, 2011 6:40am Oct 6, 2011 6:40am
Lovely thread Pip-trapper, loyal follower.

How big do you traders believe a possible ratecut would be on? Personally i think they remain unchanged.

Best regards
  • #819
  • Oct 6, 2011 6:40am Oct 6, 2011 6:40am
Good Lord... Lucky me, I exit GBPUSD long just before BOE statement took nice profit from 1.54000 to 1.54775 waiting for the EUR to cheer up to enter short or for Trichet to doom it into darkness .

My AUD/USD short still stands, seems USD is finally strenghtening. Crude starts getting weaker too. Now I sense this 'itch' that I was missing before - EUR will fall this week. May retrace even much higher, but in the end - it cannot change the inevitable

BTW, as a newbie trader I may be wrong, but the EUR got punched by BOE decision, and if the rates remain at 1.50 bp, then it will cheer up. If I held any "winning shorts" right now I would consider booking profit. But, as I mentioned - as a complete noob I have great probability of being wrong. And my account confirms, that trading opposite to would be profitable
  • #820
  • Oct 6, 2011 6:45am Oct 6, 2011 6:45am
Quoting Blobik
...And my account confirms, that trading opposite to would be profitable

Don't be too hard on yourself. I used to say that about my account
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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