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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #681
  • Oct 5, 2011 7:50am Oct 5, 2011 7:50am
1.32 here we come

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  • #682
  • Oct 5, 2011 7:55am Oct 5, 2011 7:55am
IMHO....If ECB lowers rate tomorrow in order to bolster bank liquidity.......Greece, game, set, match on inevitability of default! Will be very volatile as default may not be orderly, nor Euro friendly.
  • #683
  • Oct 5, 2011 7:58am Oct 5, 2011 7:58am
Want to see a clean break of 1.32719 before.... Looks like there could be a bullish hammer forming on M15.

Quoting aqeelaputra
1.32 here we come

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  • #684
  • Oct 5, 2011 8:02am Oct 5, 2011 8:02am
Quoting drtorque
apparently, I was wrong.. saw the price reaction, going up, and jumped on it
The reason you were wrong is that the difference between the expectation and the released number wasn't big enough.

Pbh
  • #685
  • Oct 5, 2011 8:04am Oct 5, 2011 8:04am
Don't trade the numbers trade the reaction to the numbers...

Quoting Pbh
The reason you were wrong is that the difference between the expectation and the released number wasn't big enough.

Pbh
  • #686
  • Oct 5, 2011 8:12am Oct 5, 2011 8:12am
I don't think it's going to 1.32 in a hurry.
Equity indices are still bullish and everything is still pointing to risk on.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m5

I feel we may still have another swing high to make a lower high.

However, a quick sell-off close to the end of the European closing bell is possible.

I am going to wait until Europe closes before cautiously celebrating .
Then we shall see what the US session does. At best, if we don't get a sell-off, I see a ranging market until the ECB press conference tomorrow.

Remember my Weekend Update in which I wrote that the correction will end by Tuesday and we will range on Wednesday till the Thursday ECB press conference? I think I may have been right. Let's see.


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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #687
  • Oct 5, 2011 8:18am Oct 5, 2011 8:18am
Quoting PipTrapper
I don't think it's going to 1.32 in a hurry.
Equity indices are still bullish and everything is still pointing to risk on.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m5

I feel we may still have another swing high to make a lower high.

However, a quick sell-off close to the end of the European closing bell is possible.

I am going to wait until Europe closes before cautiously celebrating .
Then we shall see what the US session does. At best, if we don't get...
Here is the referenced excerpt from my weekend update. I'm still sticking by this for now:

New week, new month, new Quarter:
According to my long term analysis mentioned in my second post to this thread, I expect the October candle to be bearish. This is both from a technical perspective as well as fundamental. Both perspectives still support this projection and sentiment is even more negative now. However, before we jump into any new short positions, considering Friday's meltdown of this pair (EUR/USD), we need to see some corrective move to the upside. I believe this correction will take place during the first part of the new week after the pair has finished extending its losses at the opening (unless it is already done). This correction should end on Tuesday. I expect Wednesday and Thursday to be somewhat sideways (ranging), and then it gets very interesting when the ECB will release their rate statement and Trichet holds his last press conference as president before Draghi takes his place. Friday is the famous NFP day. I am chewing my fingernails in anticipation of these two major risk events. It should be interesting.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #688
  • Oct 5, 2011 8:26am Oct 5, 2011 8:26am
A Gap return is still a possibility

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  • #689
  • Oct 5, 2011 8:28am Oct 5, 2011 8:28am
Interesting day. while I was sleeping , market certaintly went up and down in a little range (in my opinion). We are close the the London Close and I am wondering I would like to see another high before market dropping like a bitch due to ECB's possible rate cut.

What I don't know, is how much this upward swing should last. Maybe until the Asian Open, maybe until the london open or asian close. I will be watching the market carefully and see if I can sell the sucker at a good level.

Here's a chart of what I expect to happen in the short term (london close).

To back up my opinion of a higher swing, we have all the good economic releases that came out recently. Will Euro still come down, YES, and PT, you will still celebrate and you know it.

This is my view of the market

Pbh
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  • #690
  • Oct 5, 2011 8:35am Oct 5, 2011 8:35am
Quoting KenFx
A Gap return is still a possibility

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KenFX (and everybody else),

That gap may will be filled tomorrow in one of two ways.

1. A quick spike upwards during the ECB rate statement or Trichet's press conference.

2. A very short term rally to approx 1.34 or 1.35 on news of an ECB rate cut.

Now you may ask "Why would an ECB rate cut be Euro positive?"

Well, in reality it is not and that is why any such rally will be short lived. The reason we may get a rally is because a rate cut by the ECB may signal the market that at least Europe is doing something to stimulate the economy... and that would be Euro positive until the market again starts focusing on the harsh realities of the debt crisis. It will also trigger whatever institutional and retail sell limits that may be residing up in the region.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #691
  • Oct 5, 2011 8:36am Oct 5, 2011 8:36am
Quoting PipTrapper
Here is the referenced excerpt from my weekend update. I'm still sticking by this for now:

New week, new month, new Quarter:
According to my long term analysis mentioned in my second post to this thread, I expect the October candle to be bearish. This is both from a technical perspective as well as fundamental. Both perspectives still support this projection and sentiment is even more negative now. However, before we jump into any new short positions,...
  • #692
  • Oct 5, 2011 8:38am Oct 5, 2011 8:38am
Quoting PipTrapper
KenFX (and everybody else),

That gap may will be filled tomorrow in one of two ways.

1. A quick spike upwards during the ECB rate statement or Trichet's press conference.

2. A very short term rally to approx 1.34 or 1.35 on news of an ECB rate cut.

Now you may ask "Why would an ECB rate cut be Euro positive?"

Well, in reality it is not and that is why any such rally will be short lived. The reason we may get a rally is because a rate cut by the ECB may signal the market that at least Europe is doing something to stimulate the economy... and...
Hi, why do you expect a rate cut?
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #693
  • Oct 5, 2011 8:39am Oct 5, 2011 8:39am
Quoting PipTrapper
KenFX (and everybody else),

That gap may will be filled tomorrow in one of two ways.

1. A quick spike upwards during the ECB rate statement or Trichet's press conference.

2. A very short term rally to approx 1.34 or 1.35 on news of an ECB rate cut.

Now you may ask "Why would an ECB rate cut be Euro positive?"

Well, in reality it is not and that is why any such rally will be short lived. The reason we may get a rally is because a rate cut by the ECB may signal the market that at least Europe is doing something to stimulate the economy......
Now you got me. I don't know if market would go up with a rate cut. And I don't even know if trichet would call a rate cut. I'll be following you on this one.

Pbh

PS: I'm off to study for a conference at school tomorrow. Will be checking the market closely.
  • #694
  • Oct 5, 2011 8:41am Oct 5, 2011 8:41am
Am I missing something, or we are not discussing, what might happen, if the rates won't get cut? Just curiosity, since I have no idea how this can affect the market in these conditions... In generale it would be EUR-positive, but... Wouldn't it mean, that even ECB stopped doing anything to fight the crysis?
  • #695
  • Oct 5, 2011 8:43am Oct 5, 2011 8:43am
Quoting walb99
Hi, why do you expect a rate cut?
It doesn't have to be a rate cut. It only has to be implied that a rate cut will come before the end of the year.

I expect a rate cut because of the current economic situation. The fundamentals do not currently support the rate at 1.5%. The ECB was obviously following its mandate to control mid term inflation when it raised the rates twice earlier this year. However now, the economic outlook has changed.

As most of us already know, the ECB (at least under Trichet's rule) will NOT print Euros unless absolutely necessary. Therefore the only other stimulus measure available to them is to cut rates.

ADD: Remember that even if ECB cuts the rate to 1.00%, it will still be higher than the BOE and the FED and the BOJ rates combined. Therefore a rate cut will not necessarily unwind the interest rate differential trades. Rather, because it will be temporarily seen as a stimulus measure to the economy and because the rate would still be the highest in the advanced western economies, it may very well be Euro positive.
I know it doesn't fit with what one would expect but these are not normal times.
Anyway it is just a theory and certainly not to be interpreted as a trade signal.
We shall just have to wait and see.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #696
  • Oct 5, 2011 8:44am Oct 5, 2011 8:44am
My broker is IBFX. They close at 4:00 EDT on Fridays. My gap is 25 pips,
with low of close at 1.33939 on Friday and high of open at 1.33681.

Is this accurate?
  • #697
  • Oct 5, 2011 8:50am Oct 5, 2011 8:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
It doesn't have to be a rate cut. It only has to be implied that a rate cut will come before the end of the year.

I expect a rate cut because of the current economic situation. The fundamentals do not currently support the rate at 1.5%. The ECB was obviously following its mandate to control mid term inflation when it raised the rates twice earlier this year. However now, the economic outlook has changed.

As most of us already know, the ECB (at least under Trichet's rule) will NOT print Euros unless absolutely necessary. Therefore the only other...
I think in Germany the inflation is above 2% and the germans would be very upset if the ECB will cut rates.
Equities formed a reversal pattern (DAX), energy shares were very strong last weeks, all in all I am not so sure to see levels again below 3300.
Everything is possible, one option is that this retracement turns out to be a reversal.
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #698
  • Oct 5, 2011 8:57am Oct 5, 2011 8:57am
Quoting H.z
Hi Pip Trapper,

I have a question for u, you've been trading for almost 10 years, Do u think Forex could be a trade for living?

Thx
This is my answer, yes you can. Stick to this forum and you'll learn how, this is a the union of fundamentals, tecnichals, market cycle and price action. This is everything you need to know.

Just stick around and you'll see

Pbh
  • #699
  • Edited 10:39am Oct 5, 2011 8:57am | Edited 10:39am
Quoting walb99
I think in Germany the inflation is above 2% and the germans would be very upset if the ECB will cut rates.
Equities formed a reversal pattern (DAX), energy shares were very strong last weeks, all in all I am not so sure to see levels again below 3300.
Everything is possible, one option is that this retracement turns out to be a reversal.
Hi Walb99,
I just looked at the daily chart of the DAX and what I see is a bear flag completing its wave 5.
Yes it could be a reversal but at this point I feel it is premature to call it.
Cheers
PT

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #700
  • Oct 5, 2011 8:58am Oct 5, 2011 8:58am
Certainly, in all this discussion it points to "roll the dice". It may be a reversal and not a retracement as well. PT, the advice is yours "wait and see".
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