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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #28,001
  • Oct 5, 2011 9:21am Oct 5, 2011 9:21am
Quoting USD-Bear
76.98 on the bid
Just hang on 76.902... then drop..
Anyhow, it has chance to go up to R2, then drop..
  • #28,002
  • Oct 5, 2011 9:29am Oct 5, 2011 9:29am
JUst +14.6p.

Now, plan new target..
Sell: 76.900
TP: 76.700
SL: 77.150
  • #28,003
  • Oct 5, 2011 9:34am Oct 5, 2011 9:34am
Quoting freiburg
and by what time GMT? Thanks
bit variable, last NY hour
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #28,004
  • Oct 5, 2011 9:36am Oct 5, 2011 9:36am
Quoting USD-Bear
bit varable, last NY hour

:-) but if you don't hang on an hour or two you get to miss out on the BOJ intervention any day soon.



But don't listen to me, my (occasional) lapses of discipline have cost me a lot, and still learning hard lessons!
  • #28,005
  • Oct 5, 2011 9:43am Oct 5, 2011 9:43am
Quoting freiburg
:-) but if you don't hang on an hour or two you get to miss out on the BOJ intervention any day soon.



But don't listen to me, my (occasional) lapses of discipline have cost me a lot, and still learning hard lessons!
lol, it's only today's policy
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #28,006
  • Oct 5, 2011 9:46am Oct 5, 2011 9:46am
ah well,
higher high already, leaving positions overnight

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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #28,007
  • Oct 5, 2011 10:12am Oct 5, 2011 10:12am
Well one things for sure no matter where it closes today(unless below 76.65) it has formed a great setup for a move the following day.
Happy Trading
  • #28,008
  • Oct 5, 2011 10:57am Oct 5, 2011 10:57am
have you checked the daily candel on the 16 03 2011
  • #28,009
  • Oct 5, 2011 11:20am Oct 5, 2011 11:20am
would be nice if we could end this retrace at 50%

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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #28,010
  • Oct 5, 2011 11:30am Oct 5, 2011 11:30am
damn getting nervous, prob very bad decision but closed @ 76.86 (too much money involved)
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #28,011
  • Oct 5, 2011 11:36am Oct 5, 2011 11:36am
Quoting USD-Bear
damn getting nervous, prob very bad decision but closed @ 76.86 (too much money involved)
I'm still in my position ... willing to lose my paper profits, have some paper loss, while awaiting 77.20 plus to get the bigger catch. But if recent history serves as a guide, then you've done the statistically conservative decision.
  • #28,012
  • Oct 5, 2011 11:44am Oct 5, 2011 11:44am
One failed attempt after another. Reminds me of the attempt made to break and hold 77.50 after the Japanese intervention early August. People were also conforted by the ascending trendline which kept for quite a while.

Bear in mind that failed patterns/trendlines tend to go very fast the opposite way. I'd keep my stops very tight (which I did).
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  • #28,013
  • Oct 5, 2011 11:53am Oct 5, 2011 11:53am
Quoting SIgurs
One failed attempt after another. Reminds me of the attempt made to break and hold 77.50 after the Japanese intervention early August. People were also conforted by the ascending trendline which kept for quite a while.

Bear in mind that failed patterns/trendlines tend to go very fast the opposite way. I'd keep my stops very tight (which I did).
probably wrong, but it just looks too obvious and consistent that it will go down yet again. We are right at the point for a whoosh down. I'm gonna hang on anyway, at least to see what Japan does tonight. (maybe)
  • #28,014
  • Oct 5, 2011 11:59am Oct 5, 2011 11:59am
Quoting freiburg
I'm still in my position ... willing to lose my paper profits, have some paper loss, while awaiting 77.20 plus to get the bigger catch. But if recent history serves as a guide, then you've done the statistically conservative decision.
well freiburg I've been trading UJ so long first waiting for the big move resulting in let's say 100 trades of which 98 ending @ BE
The BE's are because you act in the blind so have to be 95% sure next 10 pips are in green, enabling to move it fast to BE.

Then I realized giving up so many 10-20-30 pip trades @ BE is ashame so I changed myself in a scalper within UJ. This was/is a great phase and I did very well collecting lots of small profits.

Like realjumper says, it's prob best to stay on scalping (or do nothing) on this pair until it proves to be in a uptrend.
Looking at it right now (objective and without a position) I would say holding above WPP @ 76.82 is very bullish
holding above DPP @ 76.77 is likely
below 76.77 is back to 76.66
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #28,015
  • Oct 5, 2011 12:07pm Oct 5, 2011 12:07pm
well, I think the answer is more or less showing itself ... better than a swiss clock. Amazing how redundant this pair can be, in comparison to all the action over at EUR USD.

It also makes me think that the structural problems of USD are really much bigger than made out to be. Man, they are printing a lot of money, those slime bags!
  • #28,016
  • Oct 5, 2011 12:30pm Oct 5, 2011 12:30pm
I dont fundamental at all,like to know what the effect about china currency bill with US Dollar ? Maybe someone can explain for me


Thanks
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #28,017
  • Oct 5, 2011 12:41pm Oct 5, 2011 12:41pm
As you can see, UJ is still drawing a pretty cup formation. Now comes the hard part. Climbing that steep wall in a short period of time. Will it do it. I´m still holding on for the ride.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #28,018
  • Oct 5, 2011 12:42pm Oct 5, 2011 12:42pm
Quoting FXMindset
I dont fundamental at all,like to know what the effect about china currency bill with US Dollar ? Maybe someone can explain for me


Thanks
Mickey Mouse version (cause I don't understand it either)
China and Japan sells stuff to US for dollars. Since there is not much action the otherway around, these two countries have huge dollar accounts, but US has no Yen or Yuan). What do Japanese and Chinese do? Buy US treasuries because they pay interest, which of course the US sells to them and with that finances regime change in Iraq, Welfare, etc etc. Due to currency controls, Chinese goods stay "cheap" for Americans, but it is an intervention, which some day will blow up (either slowly or quickly) ... because the Chinese are not going to stay wage slaves of the earth forever! Hello New World Order.

Of course they can try to get out of the dollar when america prints and scares them (which they do by buying Yen and Gold) ... or at some point, they might start buying stuff around the world (like real estate and business -- hello sovereign wealth fund). When they really start buy real things, then along comes inflation ... assuming no new resources are found.

Eventually the Americans are so cheap that they get to export (in 2050) and maybe because of their amazing brains they invent the next internet, which propels them further and serves as the great big equalizer.

Thus, one never knows really which force predominates over the long term, except that its all intertwined, but Asians basically getting richer for now.
  • #28,019
  • Oct 5, 2011 12:57pm Oct 5, 2011 12:57pm
Out break even. Still holding on to my Eur/Jpy position.

Looking at other pairs makes it crystal clear that Usd is the one lagging big time. Setups on other pairs appear to be much healthier.
  • #28,020
  • Oct 5, 2011 12:59pm Oct 5, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting freiburg
Mickey Mouse version (cause I don't understand it either)
China and Japan sells stuff to US for dollars. Since there is not much action the otherway around, these two countries have huge dollar accounts, but US has no Yen or Yuan). What do Japanese and Chinese do? Buy US treasuries because they pay interest, which of course the US sells to them and with that finances regime change in Iraq, Welfare, etc etc. Due to currency controls, Chinese goods stay "cheap" for Americans, but it is an intervention, which some day will blow up (either slowly...
Very good Freiburg. Very succint and to the point. Good job!
Observation is the path to discovery.
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