USD/JPY Discussion

I guess from a fundamental side news should be interpreted as positive or at least neutral for UJ (less demand for save haven).
Keeping my long overnight

Yeah equities went bonkers running into the close.
Will be interesting to see how US equities play out tommorow.
The Dow ended right at the purple resistance.

DJ M1

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

its guarantee that usd/jpy gonna start rising eventually and reach 90-100 at least,but as we seen from usd/chf and aud/usd examples,the huge killing was made on those who vent long/short on them pairs,so dont rule out a possibility for a spike ,before any turnaround north

TL tested again and again. if it dun hold den is gonna break.

last hr close on my chart and TL still hold for now, looks like some volume is kicking in. break that 77 come mon

Daily Chart Update,Hold so far..
Lets see if we can going thru the green lines or not

Not sure how everyone is drawing their trendlines. There are some different angles depending on what your start point is and your broker's feeds, but I have this (see attached). According to this trendline I've drawn, I've had an hourly close below it.

How is everything going mate?
The Daily Hold Well But this is what I am see which might be happening whatever am hope am wrong as many people going long

Everything going well mate. I concur with your chart. I think we will drop. Furthermore, from my own observations in the past, when the masses say "this" it does "that". And I see way too many people talking about a trendline holding. Just looking like a setup to break down to me. Now all the people on here talking could be lying. I can't verify whether they tell the truth so much as I can't confirm Oanda's figures below. However, one has to think that the figures below are somewhat accurate given it's plastered up on their website and they report to CFTC.

Yes,Even the daily trend hold beautifully but that kind of pattern may point the next fall and I wont threw my Big Bom into long until am see 74,Just a several small bom to test the water how's going

Agree with u

Cheers

pair is still bugger but it does respect some trend lines on the minor and major TF's lately.
I agree with you that behavior of the masses are a very good contra-indicator in fx and in life in general but for UJ this measure has been high for ages now I don't think this will change before a possible major trend change.
Not much more to do then standard TA where this pair also has it's virtues and see what future brings us....

We may be seeing a Head & Shoulders pattern playing out.
The neckline coincides with the ascending trend line also.
A break out could lead to a 75 pip drop down to 75.75.

USD/JPY H1

On the Daily Yen Futures there is a definite line in the sand being drawn around 13.07.
Ichimoku is bullish with a recent bounce off the top of the cloud and a close above the 13.07 level should give the bulls more strength.

Yen Futures Daily

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I would not use this board as a measure of bullish sentiment. Besides myself, and the 2 or 3 other posters pushing for this to go higher, there's about 3 posters on the other side of trade, and about three who want to wait and see ... which just about reflects what USD JPY has done ... go nowhere.



ps: every video and "professional" or for marketing purposes chart analysis advises caution on this pair, to not short, and to not enter long either. Maybe a scalp trade with slight bullish bias due to BOJ.

all kinds of yen news today ....

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/busin...bu081000c.html

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...157374/1/.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7L507E20111005

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-a-abroad.html

nice reads, thanks

volume and prior trend play an important part in determining if H&S formations are valid. Many relevant data do not indicate this is a valid formation.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...nd_shoulders_t

Hello Guys,

Just for your Information Regarding Yen's Rise effects for Japanese Industry

80% of firms fear yen's rise

More than 80 percent of companies are concerned about the continued appreciation of the yen, a recent survey by The Yomiuri Shimbun has found.

If the yen continues rising, domestic firms may accelerate their corporate restructuring at home and their shift of production bases overseas, further eroding the foundations of domestic industry. Many of the firms surveyed called on the government to cut the effective corporate tax rate, and on the Bank of Japan to conduct further yen-selling market intervention.

Of the 118 companies surveyed by questionnaire, 47 said their business conditions were stagnant and six firms said they were slowly deteriorating. The most commonly cited reason--given by 49 companies--was sluggish exports due to the rapid appreciation of the yen.

On Wednesday, the yen temporarily hit a postwar high of 76.11 yen to the dollar on the Tokyo exchange market. The yen has also risen against the euro, straining the earnings of home appliance makers and other firms that export heavily to eurozone countries.

Asked how much their business performance was being harmed by the present strength of the yen, 30 firms said "greatly" and 41 said "to some extent." Only 22 said there was "no impact."

Just five firms said the yen's rise had been beneficial, facilitating imports for example.

Even import-oriented firms have suffered from the yen's rapid appreciation, with a food manufacturer saying it will slow down the domestic economy, thus affecting the manufacturer's business performance.

JR Tokai, a domestic demand-oriented firm, said the yen's continued rise will strain earnings of export-oriented firms and lead to a hollowing-out of the manufacturing industry. This would slow down the overall economy, JR Tokai said, thus indirectly harming its own business performance.

===

Ideal and reality

The yen is currently far stronger than many firms would like, the survey showed. Asked the desirable range of the yen against the dollar, 24 firms said "in the 90-94 yen range," 18 said "in the 85-89 yen range," and 14 firms "in the 80-84 yen range."

However, 60 firms said they expected the yen to be "in the 75-79 yen range" at the end of December. Pollees expected the yen's appreciation to continue for some time amid concern about the slowdown in the U.S. and European economies, and no firms expected the yen to drop to the "90-94 yen range" at the end of December.

Asked how they were dealing with the yen's rise, 57 companies named "cost-cutting efforts at home," while 46 firms said they were "expanding the procurement of parts and materials from abroad."

If the current strength of the yen continues, an electrical appliance maker said it would "expand production in such emerging economies as China," while Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings Corp. said it would "scale down or pull out of businesses that are not internationally competitive."

Regarding the measures they wanted taken by the Bank of Japan, 47 companies wanted the central bank to continue yen-selling market intervention or to heighten such efforts.

Forty-one firms said they wanted further relaxation of monetary policy.

Asked what should be done to stem the hollowing-out of industries, many firms called on the government to draw up and implement mid- and long-term strategies.

Specifically, 69 companies wanted the government to cut the effective corporate tax rate, while 57 firms wanted the promotion of free trade, such as through Japan's participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.

Meanwhile, 38 companies said the government should review and carry out its new growth strategies, and 28 firms said they wanted the government to help firms keep bases for production and research in Japan.

The firms could choose from multiple answers to the survey questions.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp

as i already told to all of you that BOJ will have to intervien in the market.