EurAnalysis

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Don't leave.

I'll try to post a market update just before Europe open.
I'm tired right now and cannot think straight.
Perhaps too much grappa in my espresso

I'm off too Gofer.
Need some shuteye
Hope you had a productive day today
Cheers my friend

AU Retail Sales +0.3% than expected = 0.6%, but we're seeing risk aversion all across the board.

I think I'll wait until the London Open to see how the market properly reacted to this news and if I could issue any trade from there.

I'd like to see EURUSD higher before the asian close. But it's not a fact, neither what I am expecting to happen. It's only my short-term dream. I wanted to point out this.

See you all around 4 hours later.

Trade Safe. It's the asian market.

Pbh

Twin Peaks but one hangs a bit lower than the other.

Later Pbh. I will have my market commentary before Europe open.
I'm off to snooze for a few hours.

See ya

PbH- might just happen. i booked profits from 3270s and turned long.. for anything above 33, maybe 3320.. will see..

That's great , I think all of us will have a better understanding and reading of the market just before the London Open. I hope you can make some good pips.

Pbh

Nice

Poked my head in to see what's going on before bed and now I'll be dreaming of lopsided hangers all night

Happy hunting PT, Nite Y'all

re-post from my trendline thread

closed longs around 3300 early..
turned back to short again from 3310-20.. 1 hr to London bridge

I was looking at the area marked by the magenta rectangle on the daily chart (about 1.3365 to 1.3460).

Does this look like anything to anyone else? I was thinking it might be a whole bunch of resistance and a good place to short.

I usually scalp for 10pips or so on 5min, but am trying to gradually shift into longer time frames.

UPDATE: (About 4 hours later) Second picture (see magenta circle) shows price bounced off of resistance area and back to parallel trendline (up to 40 pips possible move). This was pretty much what I was thinking might happen. Had already had a good day and was asleep when this happened, just thought it was cool that I'm finally starting to see some things like this.

Well it's been a very interesting week so far.

First we see a further push down on Monday to the depths of the 1.3150 area before we even get a hint of a correction, then yesterday we spend the day forming a nice base followed by a beautiful correction upwards with a final surge at NY close.

It is quite obvious to me that from a technical perspective, this correction was long overdue. However, I am still trying to figure out the fundamentals that support this correction. Let's look at a few things.

Greece is no closer to a resolution than they were last week or last month. A default is imminent but that is already priced in. Fine.

The European banks that hold Greek debt and other derivatives that would be affected by such a default/haircut took a bashing over the last several weeks over concerns that they may not be able to weather the storm. Okay that's fine too.

Yesterday the EU finance ministers decided that they will do whatever it takes to shore up these vulnerable banks in order to prevent a meltdown. Hey, that's fantastic and that's why the market reacted so positively.

Wait, I smell a rotten fish. This makes no sense to me. The European finance ministers do not have the authority to provide the funds for such a move. These funds will have to be approved by all 17 member states' parliaments. How in the world are they going to manage to do that so quickly, plus what exactly is 'that'. They never gave any details on how they are going to do it. They simply do not have a clear plan on how they are gong to rescue the banks so how the heck can they even take such a plan to their respective parliaments for approval???

Now we throw another wrench in the works. Moody's downgrades Italy's government bond ratings to A2 with a negative outlook

My view is that we have a case of 'Buy the rumor, Sell the fact', or perhaps seller exhaustion and hopeful buyers.

That works quite well for me. It gives me a decent corrective rally for more shorting opportunities and I am certainly going to take advantage of it.

This Is The Story That's Made The Market Come Surging Back

ADD: Dexia Moves Debt Crisis From EU Periphery to Core

ADD: Moody’s Sees More European Downgrades

The road ahead is full of more risk events.

Today at 8:15am EST we will get a preview of what the NFP number might be from the ADP version of the NFP which measure job creation in the private sector. This may rock the market.

Today At 10am EST we get the ISM Non Manufacturing PMI from the US. This news event will most likely be overshadowed by the ADP report.

Tomorrow at 7:45am EST, The ECB releases their minimum bid rate. This may definitely rock the market if it includes a rate cut. It will be hard to call. Typically if the ECB cuts rates, then the Euro would lose value. However, if they do cut rates, the Euro is not likely to lose much value because it would appear that the ECB is doing something to address the underlying economic woes. Actually I wouldn't be surprised if we get an uptick on that. Yeah I know it goes against the norm but it is certainly a logical assumption.

45 mins after the rate statement, Trichet will hold his last press conference as the president of the ECB before Draghi takes his place at month end. This will be the press conference that rocks the Euro. I am going to be careful on this one and I refuse to get tempted to follow the price on this one until at least 30 minutes after he has finished answering questions.

Coincidentally, at the same time as the scheduled start of Trichet's press conference, just to throw some confusion into the mix, the US Weekly Jobless claims report will be released. This gives us one more hint about the all important holy grail NFP number due on Friday, but I suspect that this number, although not completely ignored, will be pushed to the background as the market listens intently to what Trichet has to say.

Then comes the big event on Friday. Non-Farm Payroll report. The grand finale to the week. Estimates are that this number will come in around 51,000 new jobs. Last month the figure was exactly 0 (zero, nada, zilch). That is highly unlikely so I would also expect a revision of that previous number.

So all in all, we have some turbulence ahead. It may get quite rough. I'm going to buckle my seat belt and hang on because I am still confident that the only direction for the euro in all this mess is downhill in the long run. Whatever price does in the next 3 days will only be a distraction from the ultimate destination. I made it very clear in my first post that the decline to my target was not going to be a straight line.

Let's see what happens. I am ready.

.

Hey PT, glad to see you got your entry. All the sweeter when it happens when you are out enjoying yourself.

Yeah, I am a bit upset that I got slipped 19 pips though.
However, I am sure my broker will compensate me. They always have in the past.

Trade safe today

Piptrapper -
i had a tight stop at 3333 , im taken out then below 33 again

anyways, i turned long b/w 3280-90.
3360 doesnt look like a very serious resistance, and in case its broken,
(europe markets are all up, if u remember i was saying this is what i was afraid of related to being short. EU copying the US turn back), anyways.. long story short 3480 wouldnt look too unreasonable if id see it on my chart..

maybe im just fantasizing. actually, i toootallly agree w/ur fundamental analysis. just a long fantasy

drtorque,
We know it's going to be a volatile week so I wouldn't rule out 1.3480. Actually I have a sell limit order waiting at 1.3490

Yesterday rush made me loose my profits... Just as I was scalping happily on AUD/USD .

But I get over it and think that I will not enter new trades today, cause the market is really unpredictable. I keep changing my mind and cannot decide where the possible sell zone is (the best sign not to enter); but I put some sell limits below 1.35, cause I do not expect the correction to be more powerful. And I stick to PT analysis, which seems far more accurate than mine.

And still I stick to my confidence, that this month candle will be bearish so I can get enough profit .

Safe trading. For me, it will be being more 'out' than 'in' the market