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  • #521
  • Oct 4, 2011 5:44am Oct 4, 2011 5:44am
Quoting PipPipPip
According to my ccharts, 1.3215 was hit.
As for me, I have a running position from 1.4436 and 1.3678. I am doing just dandy.
Not all charts are the same. Mine shows 1.32104 on one broker and 1.32111 on another. Of course you also have to add the spread as the close price of a short is the ask not the bid. So it also depends on your broker's spread. I am sure you already know this PipPipPip and I am only writing it for the benefit of those readers who do not.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #522
  • Edited 7:01am Oct 4, 2011 6:34am | Edited 7:01am
All technical indicators say we are oversold so a corrective move to the upside is due.

However, there is no fundamental support for this at this time, so we shall have to wait and see what happens when Wall St. traders hit the consoles.

Also at 9:00am EST, Trichet is due to testify before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, in Brussels. Not sure if anything he says will move the markets.

Then, at 10am EST, Bernanke is also due to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. Now what he has to say will be very closely scrutinized for any hint about any further tools the Fed may look to use in the future.

If neither Trichet or Bernanke manage to move the markets, it's pretty well a slow day, and with the ECB rate statement due on Thursday and the NFP due on Friday, I say we range a bit from here with a bias to the downside.

I am currently sitting on my hands until such time as we get a decent correction so I can short again.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #523
  • Oct 4, 2011 7:48am Oct 4, 2011 7:48am
Good MAE

Here's a few of the morning headlines out right now...

Big European banks Dexia, BNP, Societe Generale and Deutsche Bank all over the news today with liquidity problems, Greek exposure and missing profit targets.

Goldmann Sachs is predicting a recession in Germany and France

Greek aid delayed until november now and they want banks to take a bigger haircut

Asian stock markets down today, European stock markets down about 3% across the board.

US stock futures are down before the market opens..... That headline is also plastered on about every major news outlet home page.
It's doom and gloom today so far.


Heads up with Trichet speaking in about an 10 minutes and Bernanke in an hour.


Me personally, I'm flat on everything with these 2 jawboning, cashed in my short term EurChf and $J for a small profit adding about 3% to the account vs the 12% I I was shooting for, didn't get anywhere near where I wanted, didn't move far and kept bouncing back and forth through my entry which usually ain't a good thing.... and of course they both popped up right after I did that.

Keep the big picture on the weekly in mind. I think she may start to get choppy pretty soon. She's near the 61.8 retracement at 1.3046 of a long term up trend, near a pivot low and support at about 1.2911 and a strong demand zone from 1.2588 - 1.2911
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Here's the 30 minute and some levels I'm watching. Looks like she's consolidating while everyone waits for the Trichet and Bernanke show. I honestly don't know what I'm going to do this morning other than go make me some breakfast in about 5 minutes.
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Trade safe.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #524
  • Oct 4, 2011 8:35am Oct 4, 2011 8:35am
Quoting PipKiller
...
Here's the 30 minute and some levels I'm watching. Looks like she's consolidating while everyone waits for the Trichet and Bernanke show. I honestly don't know what I'm going to do this morning other than go make me some breakfast in about 5 minutes.
Attachment


Trade safe.
Thanks for your excellent post PipKiller
Hope you had a good breakfast coz it's going to be an interesting day.
I think we are forming a base at 1.3150 but then I thought that yesterday also at 1.3310 and look what happened, despite good econ data.
Perhaps if price breaks back into the channel, we may stand a chance for a decent correction upwards for another shorting opportunity.
.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #525
  • Oct 4, 2011 8:42am Oct 4, 2011 8:42am
eu retracing
chart update
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/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #526
  • Oct 4, 2011 8:48am Oct 4, 2011 8:48am
Mmmmmm tummy full, Mikey happy

Big headline on TV CNBC is covering a big chunk of the bottom of the screen... S&P 500 in bear market territory down over 20% since April.

Looks like Eur/Gbp is leading a push up in the Euro right now.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #527
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:15am Oct 4, 2011 9:15am
Quoting PipKiller
Mmmmmm tummy full, Mikey happy

Big headline on TV CNBC is covering a big chunk of the bottom of the screen... S&P 500 in bear market territory down over 20% since April.

Looks like Eur/Gbp is leading a push up in the Euro right now.
Bernanke is currently testifying. See it on CNBC
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #528
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:20am Oct 4, 2011 9:20am
Quoting PipTrapper
Bernanke is currently testifying. See it on CNBC
It's on, been listenng to it.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #529
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:21am Oct 4, 2011 9:21am
Looks like big words or is something else going on. Lets see if I can get my position trade at 1.331.

Quoting PipKiller
It's on, been listenng to it.
  • #530
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:23am Oct 4, 2011 9:23am
Very Heavy USD/CHF Selling Blamed For Dollar Slump:

Talk that a Boston-based custodian hammered USD/CHF, traders relay…EUR/USD reversed losses to 1.3169, launching to 1.3243, squeezing shorts in the process.
It really is 2008 all over again! Volatility sky-high.
  • #531
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:32am Oct 4, 2011 9:32am
Quoting tycan
Volatility sky-high.
VIX still over 45
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #532
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:36am Oct 4, 2011 9:36am
can i say that correction start now ?? can i take sell now ??
  • #533
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:38am Oct 4, 2011 9:38am
Quoting aqeelaputra;
first step need break 1.3280-1.33 and maybe after that we can reach 1.36 before next down again
hopefully the process will continue..see you guys
  • #534
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:44am Oct 4, 2011 9:44am
Doesn't really make any sense why would EUR/USD rally on heavy selling in USD/CHF? It popped back up? Well I'm flat anyway? This must be something else too. What is Ben saying QE3?
  • #535
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:44am Oct 4, 2011 9:44am
Another rumor about the SNB raising the floor to 1.30
This is also booting the euro as EUR/CHF is being bid upwards.
Last time this happened, the euro took a dive after they were done by using the Euros to buy USD.
Will be interesting to see how this unfolds if the rumors are in fact true.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #536
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:50am Oct 4, 2011 9:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
Another rumor about the SNB raising the floor to 1.30
This is also booting the euro as EUR/CHF is being bid upwards.
Last time this happened, the euro took a dive after they were done by using the Euros to buy USD.
Will be interesting to see how this unfolds if the rumors are in fact true.
Market talk of Swiss names buying EUR/USD - Unconfirmed

rumors making the rounds also of the eurchf floor moving to 1.3000

SNB say they have no comment about change in floor to 1.3000

Normally when an authority has "no comment" about a rumor, it confirms the rumor as fact. Is that also the case this time?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #537
  • Oct 4, 2011 9:53am Oct 4, 2011 9:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
Another rumor about the SNB raising the floor to 1.30
This is also booting the euro as EUR/CHF is being bid upwards.
Last time this happened, the euro took a dive after they were done by using the Euros to buy USD.
Will be interesting to see how this unfolds if the rumors are in fact true.
hearing the same thing on the rumored SNB 1.30 peg

Last time they said they were not going to peg and then the SNB ninja slammed the market the next morning.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #538
  • Oct 4, 2011 10:20am Oct 4, 2011 10:20am
Yes, it is quite crazy right now. But good for my CHF shorts . Too bad my counter-trend, risky EUR long hit SL before skyrocketing like that .

But, finally we get something interesting. It was quite boring today ...
  • #539
  • Oct 4, 2011 10:24am Oct 4, 2011 10:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
Another rumor about the SNB raising the floor to 1.30
This is also booting the euro as EUR/CHF is being bid upwards.
Last time this happened, the euro took a dive after they were done by using the Euros to buy USD.
Will be interesting to see how this unfolds if the rumors are in fact true.
Lets hope so, I am now short from the candles up from 1.3288
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Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #540
  • Oct 4, 2011 10:33am Oct 4, 2011 10:33am
We finally have a nice correction forming and it has come a long way up in just one hour.

However, I am waiting as I don't think the correction is done yet. Even if it is, it is still too expensive for me to go short again quite yet.

Here's my updated H1 analysis chart with a new sell zone.
I have moved my sell limit down to 1.3350 from 1.3500

.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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