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  • #441
  • Oct 3, 2011 9:06am Oct 3, 2011 9:06am
US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in higher at 51.6 vs an expected 50.5

This should give us an upward swing on the Euro. How far it will get is a different question altogether.

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #442
  • Oct 3, 2011 9:07am Oct 3, 2011 9:07am
Interesting news:

USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif51.6http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...ol_refresh.gif 50.5 50.6

Will come back later with my analysis of the market

This week will be hard though... due to so many high-impact news releases

Pbh
  • #443
  • Oct 3, 2011 9:19am Oct 3, 2011 9:19am
nice thread...
  • #444
  • Oct 3, 2011 9:23am Oct 3, 2011 9:23am
I guess market might go mad tomorrow, as both Trichet and Bernanke will be speaking one after another, what may drive EUR/USD crazy.

Right now by looking at some USD pairs, it seems that dollar is bouncing up and down in an unpredictable manner

Edit: Oh, wait, seems seanosms actually predicted it! Mr. Market: "no matter the data are good, let's start bouncing" On the other hand, it means hope for more stability, and USD down as a result... But probably the Eurozone will kindly provide some new bad rumours soon and my equity will look much better
  • #445
  • Oct 3, 2011 9:35am Oct 3, 2011 9:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in higher at 51.6 vs an expected 50.5

This should give us an upward swing on the Euro. How far it will get is a different question altogether.

.

Just enough of a bounce for 20 pips and a bit left over....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 5min.gif Size: 25 KB
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #446
  • Oct 3, 2011 9:37am Oct 3, 2011 9:37am
Quoting aqeelaputra
nice thread...
aqeelaputra, Thanks for your thumbs up and welcome to EurAnalysis.
I assume you have already had a look at page 1 and familiarized yourself with the objective and rules of this thread. If you haven't done so yet, please click here.
Looking forward to your future participation.
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #447
  • Oct 3, 2011 9:39am Oct 3, 2011 9:39am
Quoting NZ Chris
Just enough of a bounce for 20 pips and a bit left over....
Great!
Unfortunately for me, not enough to trigger my sell limit LOL
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #448
  • Oct 3, 2011 9:43am Oct 3, 2011 9:43am
Careful here with shorts.
Now sitting on falling trend line support (FTL-3 on the chart) at approx 1.3290
and intraday support at 1.3285.
.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-h1.gif Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: liveeurochart.jpg Size: 190 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #449
  • Oct 3, 2011 9:44am Oct 3, 2011 9:44am
Quoting PipTrapper
Great!
Unfortunately for me, not enough to trigger my sell limit LOL
Booooo !!!!! I'm sure you will still get it. Your analysis is excellent. I took your advice on Friday, produced a lovely 60 pips last thing in the day.

Great thread, right up my street.
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #450
  • Oct 3, 2011 9:47am Oct 3, 2011 9:47am
Quoting NZ Chris
Booooo !!!!! I'm sure you will still get it. Your analysis is excellent. I took your advice on Friday, produced a lovely 60 pips last thing in the day.

Great thread, right up my street.
Excellent. I am glad you are enjoying it.
I am also
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #451
  • Oct 3, 2011 9:57am Oct 3, 2011 9:57am
The southbound EUR/USD train looks like it is getting ready to leave the station. Next stop 1.3260 possibly followed by 1.3200
Let's see what happens.

EDIT: 1.3200 by NY session end will land us on falling channel support. that is where I expect a good bounce unless all heck brakes loose.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: liveeurochart.gif Size: 44 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #452
  • Oct 3, 2011 10:04am Oct 3, 2011 10:04am
Quoting PipTrapper
The southbound EUR/USD train looks like it is getting ready to leave the station. Next stop 1.3260 possibly followed by 1.3200
Let's see what happens.

EDIT: 1.3200 by NY session end will land us on falling channel support. that is where I expect a good bounce unless all heck brakes loose.

.
My E/U trade from earlier is now closed for +70 pips so the train is likely about to accelerate and go full speed ahead to the next station. Done for the day now, more than my targets have been achieved.
Thanks PT
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #453
  • Oct 3, 2011 10:09am Oct 3, 2011 10:09am
Quoting NZ Chris
My E/U trade from earlier is now closed for +70 pips so the train is likely about to accelerate and go full speed ahead to the next station. Done for the day now, more than my targets have been achieved.
Thanks PT
Congrats Chris
Enjoy the rest of your day
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #454
  • Oct 3, 2011 10:11am Oct 3, 2011 10:11am
Seems that once again market is more bearish on Euro than we are . But, sth is different than on Friday. On Friday USD was getting stronger. But right now I see that commodities don't follow the EUR and USD/JPY is falling (so, risk off or on, actually?).

As long as commodities grow, I am careful with EUR - since lately the show some correlation, pointed out in copper example by walb99.

On the other hand they may grow just due to positive US data. But I think euro will beat them down a little bit more (in longer term) until they become free of European debt crisis impact.
  • #455
  • Oct 3, 2011 10:20am Oct 3, 2011 10:20am
Quoting PipTrapper;
aqeelaputra, Thanks for your thumbs up and welcome to EurAnalysis.
I assume you have already had a look at page 1 and familiarized yourself with the objective and rules of this thread. If you haven't done so yet, please click here.
Looking forward to your future participation.
Cheers
PT

sorry mate... my view on the on h4 and daily at 13180 if this can break we can go to 13050-70
  • #456
  • Oct 3, 2011 10:21am Oct 3, 2011 10:21am
Quoting ntrprz
PT, I am definitely finding this an educational thread and look to learn to add long term strategies to my short term tendencies. What are some of these other indicators you use and where do you get them? I know many are in my platform, but there are also set up options and other items that I would find helpful in understanding how you are deriving the technical analysis that is far beyond my simplistic methods.

NTRPRZ
Well yes, you do have all the tools in your platform. I have nothing special installed. It's just trend lines, fib tools, shape tools and horizontal support/resistance lines. These are all placed manually on my charts and manually adjusted a few times daily.

It's one thing to have the tools and a completely different thing to apply them to the charts. It comes with experience which gives you the ability to read the charts and recognize certain patterns and candle behavior. Not really something I can explain. Just keep learning and applying it and in time you will get your own feel of the charts.

Don't forget the fundamentals. The technicals are only a representation of trader behavior and traders' behavior is based on fundamentals and general market sentiment.

I hope I have given you enough to get a good picture. If not, keep following along and it will come to you eventually. It's not easy but it's not rocket science either.

Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #457
  • Oct 3, 2011 10:25am Oct 3, 2011 10:25am
All aboard...... And with the southbound leaving the station and the ticket way too expensive for me to climb on board I took a look into 2 other trades that have done well for me because of intervention.

USD/JPY and EUR/CHF

Last week Japan was crying about they couldn't hack the 75-80 level in the $J and piled a bunch of $$$ into their intervention fund and again this morning saying theirs no reason for the Yen to be a safe haven.

The EJ cross pushed the $J down into into a demand zone I was watching
Long @ 76.58 already a nice 10 pip bounnce out of there.
SL 76.31
TP 77.17
R/R 3:1

The Swiss intervention Ninja looks like he's been sneaking around the 1.2130 Limit order pending

L - 1.2129
SL - 1.2109
TP - 1.2189
R/R 3:1
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #458
  • Oct 3, 2011 10:28am Oct 3, 2011 10:28am
Let's see...

Right now, we are looking to sell on rallies. I'm anxiously waiting for the RBA statement , hopefully they'll give us another 1000 pips this month. But as Euro is concerned, I think it should bounce back some good pips due to yesterday's UK PMI and today's US PMI (I guess) readings.

That should enhance a little bit of profit taking at the london close 11:30 EST (a minute from now) and we should see the market giiving us a better entry if we are not in yet.

Here's a chart as needed

Pbh
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD JPEG.JPG Size: 263 KB
  • #459
  • Oct 3, 2011 10:29am Oct 3, 2011 10:29am
Quoting Blobik
Seems that once again market is more bearish on Euro than we are ...
Quoting aqeelaputra
sorry mate... my view on the on h4 and daily at 13180 if this can break we can go to 13050-70
Yes Blobik, the euro certainly is a lot more bearish than we are today.

Although I fully agree with you aqeelaputra, that if 1.3180 is broken, we will see the euro accelerate downwards, I do not see that happening today. But then what the heck do I know? Clearly the market is not behaving today. LOL
However, from a fundamental perspective, price still needs to correct this week. We may just be seeing the continuation of Friday's fall and then the market will start its correction either after Europe close (now) or at Asian open.

I hate Mondays
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #460
  • Oct 3, 2011 10:35am Oct 3, 2011 10:35am
Quoting PipKiller
...
The EJ cross pushed the $J down into into a demand zone I was watching
Long @ 76.58 already a nice 10 pip bounnce out of there.
SL 76.31
TP 77.17
R/R 3:1

I'm already in on that one since 76.54
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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