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  • #545,781
  • Oct 1, 2011 6:44am Oct 1, 2011 6:44am
Quoting egkid
It suppose to b bearish on my chart but it go against it
Conflict between 4H AND Weekly!!!
Could b ECB buying??

4h says 1.3760
PA now 1.3610

I could b wrong but that what i c
CU Will run to my work
your right i make long at morning of 30/9 and have very big loss her did know sell or wait as i buy on 1.3540
  • #545,782
  • Oct 1, 2011 8:05am Oct 1, 2011 8:05am
Hi there, I'd like to share my view about the current market condition of the EUR/USD.

The currently strongest and weakest market players seem to be...

+ medium term bears, medium term bulls
~ short term bears, short term bulls
- long term bears, long term bulls

This equals a market condition of...

short term (days): neutral
medium term (weeks): neutral
long term (months): neutral

So, the market environment remains fairly tricky and I'm not risking a lot at the moment. That is, my position sizing is currently very conservative.

I see that we cracked the 1.34 level. I will probably already be at the trading desk when the market opens on late Sunday night (European Time) to observe if the price wants to further break down or we head up again.

My first guess is that the medium term bulls will strike back again and thus the EUR will rise. But as I said it's extremely tricky at the moment, I won't risk much, if I decide to go in.

Stay tuned.

Cheerio,

Jeffrey
  • #545,783
  • Oct 1, 2011 8:45am Oct 1, 2011 8:45am
Quoting leerees
I hate to break it to you but the reason you are successfull is because every man and his dog is shorting the euro, so no matter what indicator you look at from MA to BB's to RSI etc they will ALL give you a clear short signal. Just be warned this won't last for ever, institutional buyers and banks will only allow it to drop so low before new buying starts and the trend changes, and they don't care about your ma line, lol
Indeed i know exactly what you mean... but buddy my MA144 and MA169 are the important things. they determine when the trend changes.. if the Red line is below blue thats a bear trend and i will only look to short... when to short?? when Purple Crosses the Yellow line downwards... and i will never long in those situations... Oh oh and another interesting thing... do you see that white band thingy? i call it the Keltner Band i specifically adjusted the parameters to fit for the MA144 ... if both MA144 (red line) and MA169(blue line) are OUTSIDE this band, its NOT SAFE to follow normal trade rules as theres a possible retracement or a beginning of trend change... but not this case... the short i entered was perfect because MA144 was in the band... you need both outside to be a risk

when trend changes... that means MA144 the red line will be above MA169 then its a bull trend, ill be looking to long, how to long?? when purple line crosses yellow line from below going, then i enter long...
its fairly simple... it TAKES both TIME and 200-500 pip manipulation to get my MA144 to cross MA169 to determine the trend...
sooo im faily comfy with my strategy.. and hey IF IT MAKES MONEY, you cant argue about it... regardless if the whole world is shorting or not... you shouldnt be LONGING when the trend is telling you to Short like the one mine does...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #545,784
  • Oct 1, 2011 9:02am Oct 1, 2011 9:02am
ok you buy I will sell it to reach 1.29 will wait for higher price for sell
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #545,785
  • Oct 1, 2011 9:05am Oct 1, 2011 9:05am
I'm not a volume expert, however, I do spend a lot of time on the 1 minute charts... every dip during the London NY crossover seemed to have the holy living beep bought out of it despite the continuing dips. Confused the crap out of me really. Monday should be very telling as to what all that contract flipping was about. If I was forced to wager, I would think accumulation rather than distribution at that level. Inflation raging and ECB rate cut doesn't make much sense to me, but then again rates are set by clowns attempting to win popularity contests these days so who knows.

Beyond the hysteria surrounding my relatively insignificant (economically) country's debt, can someone explain to me why the fed buying it's own bonds is bullish for the dollar, I read that in a couple of articles and it made my eyes turn to the back of my skull, am I missing something?
  • #545,786
  • Oct 1, 2011 9:24am Oct 1, 2011 9:24am
Quoting SerpentDove
I'm not a volume expert, however, I do spend a lot of time on the 1 minute charts... every dip during the London NY crossover seemed to have the holy living beep bought out of it despite the continuing dips. Confused the crap out of me really. Monday should be very telling as to what all that contract flipping was about. If I was forced to wager, I would think accumulation rather than distribution at that level. Inflation raging and ECB rate cut doesn't make much sense to me, but then again rates are set by clowns attempting to win popularity contests...


Hmmm, maybe it goes this way:

it is kind of taking money off the table. The remaining, outstanding USD will get worth more.

Kind of share buy back of companies.

Maybe Sisse or Cloggie can explain better.


But for me as an Elliottican it is not about this mentioned topic. It is simply that the mod has changed toward USD.

USD has reserve status, the EUR not. The US is commodity rich, the EU is not. The US of A are more ONE country. The EU is NOT. The EU banks are in a far far more worth situation than the US banks......
  • #545,787
  • Oct 1, 2011 9:24am Oct 1, 2011 9:24am
Quoting bguguen
Indeed i know exactly what you mean... but buddy my MA144 and MA169 are the important things. they determine when the trend changes.. if the Red line is below blue thats a bear trend and i will only look to short... when to short?? when Purple Crosses the Yellow line downwards... and i will never long in those situations... Oh oh and another interesting thing... do you see that white band thingy? i call it the Keltner Band i specifically adjusted the parameters to fit for the MA144 ... if both MA144 (red line) and MA169(blue line) are OUTSIDE this...

Do you mind showing me how to add MA 144, MA 169, Yellow and Purple lines to MT4
  • #545,788
  • Edited 9:49am Oct 1, 2011 9:41am | Edited 9:49am
Quoting infinitus
Hmmm, maybe it goes this way:....
Appreciated, but was looking for something more like Godzilla has been spotted in the waters of the Aegean and is preparing to stomp Athens into antiquity. I have a feeling the hysteria has reached fever pitch, I don't expect the current trend to stop on a dime, but I am weary of parity calls. Yes the problems are real, but I see changes taking place to reflect those problems on a daily basis.

I fear that the market makers and media have done themselves a huge disservice in switching the economic focus to debt, especially if the idea is to strengthen the dollar. I guess I can see the purpose in keeping the hysteria going as long as possible, lower euro is a goldmine for German exports.

This was going to turn into a speech, I stuffed it, everyone can breath a sigh of relief now

by the way.... "The EU banks are in a far far more worth situation than the US banks" was that a Freudian slip...
  • #545,789
  • Oct 1, 2011 10:06am Oct 1, 2011 10:06am
Quoting hadydodo
your right i make long at morning of 30/9 and have very big loss her did know sell or wait as i buy on 1.3540
whenever you need whatever it is, comes to the win because nobody gives you anything.
the rest sleep, pray and give vivid that it takes...
  • #545,790
  • Oct 1, 2011 10:27am Oct 1, 2011 10:27am
Quoting extradeath
You can check www.xe.com
Hi Thank you so much.

Kenfen gave this site yesterday.

But, I dont see any price change for last 24hrs.

thought the rates will move even on the week-end.

Looks like its same for last 12hrs.

KC.
  • #545,791
  • Oct 1, 2011 10:36am Oct 1, 2011 10:36am
Quoting infinitus
Hmmm, maybe it goes this way:

it is kind of taking money off the table. The remaining, outstanding USD will get worth more.

Kind of share buy back of companies.

Maybe Sisse or Cloggie can explain better.


But for me as an Elliottican it is not about this mentioned topic. It is simply that the mod has changed toward USD.

USD has reserve status, the EUR not. The US is commodity rich, the EU is not. The US of A are more ONE country. The EU is NOT. The EU banks are in a far far more worth situation than the US banks......
not only that... US has more countrie's currency pegged to them too... maybe thats what you call as the reserve status...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #545,792
  • Oct 1, 2011 11:32am Oct 1, 2011 11:32am
Yeah interesting to look at the dollar index (WSJ) its been rising for a month plus.
Until euro votes on thursday I can't see the euro pulling out of the fall
  • #545,793
  • Oct 1, 2011 11:46am Oct 1, 2011 11:46am
This is directed to those on here who enjoy treating others disrespectfully.
Perhaps one day you will realize that all you are doing is disrespecting yourself.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #545,794
  • Oct 1, 2011 11:52am Oct 1, 2011 11:52am
Sorry for any disturbing, I would be very appreciated if you could provide me with your MA settings.
What is the MA 144 and MA 169 Shift, method & apply to what?
The period, shift, method and the apply to for the yellow & purple lines.
Also if there are any specific setting for the levels & visualization?

Thanks



Quoting bguguen
Indeed i know exactly what you mean... but buddy my MA144 and MA169 are the important things. they determine when the trend changes.. if the Red line is below blue thats a bear trend and i will only look to short... when to short?? when Purple Crosses the Yellow line downwards... and i will never long in those situations... Oh oh and another interesting thing... do you see that white band thingy? i call it the Keltner Band i specifically adjusted the parameters to fit for the MA144 ... if both MA144 (red line) and MA169(blue line) are OUTSIDE this...
  • #545,795
  • Oct 1, 2011 11:56am Oct 1, 2011 11:56am
oh my, there must be so many noobs who have lost money from this thread.

So many different speculators all speculating something completely different.
Now i see why the market can be so undecided when you have all these people with their crazy looking indicator frenzy headache charts sending 1,000,000 different messages out.
  • #545,796
  • Oct 1, 2011 11:59am Oct 1, 2011 11:59am
Quoting Raghu_C
Buy EU Now, UPPER Rally Started ...
WTF
  • #545,797
  • Oct 1, 2011 12:59pm Oct 1, 2011 12:59pm
Hi Guys,

Try to share my view on monday - Forecast
- Friday Daily Close We've tested the support & hold so far @ 13382 But We've close lower from 6 previous Daily low's
- EU Monthly Trend Support lying @ 1337 Level and We close 7 Month Previous Low's,Personaly I Think Once We are breaking the Friday Support Level @ 13382 Possible we might see another new down
- EUR Index Performance Strong Support Lying @ 105.14,Open Below That then might be Bad for EUR

Only a simple and poor chart,hopes can be help
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Daily.png Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Monthly.png Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURX Monthly.png Size: 39 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #545,798
  • Oct 1, 2011 1:35pm Oct 1, 2011 1:35pm
Quoting fibbonix
finally someone with a clear message instead of all these strange graphs with those useless lines and arrows
What do you want? Trade signals? Lol
  • #545,799
  • Oct 1, 2011 1:40pm Oct 1, 2011 1:40pm
Quoting bguguen
Indeed i know exactly what you mean... but buddy my MA144 and MA169 are the important things. they determine when the trend changes.. if the Red line is below blue thats a bear trend and i will only look to short... when to short?? when Purple Crosses the Yellow line downwards... and i will never long in those situations... Oh oh and another interesting thing... do you see that white band thingy? i call it the Keltner Band i specifically adjusted the parameters to fit for the MA144 ... if both MA144 (red line) and MA169(blue line) are OUTSIDE this...
If your trading strategy is catching trends then I'm not one to argue however I would like other retail traders to be mindfull of volumes and institutional buying levels. It's helpfull for everyone if we are all trading with the big boys, rather than against them.

The reason I don't use moving averages or any other forms of indicators is because they skew what's really happening in the market.

Take note of high volumes and draw these levels onto the chart for future reference, because it gives you an idea of who's brought into the market should price come back to that level.

i.e. a massive volume spike on buys with no massive volume spike at an obvious sell point means the big boys are still in, sure they can tranch out orders slowly to trick us but most of the time it doesn't matter as other traders will all assume they're still holding and the combined volume from all these people will act as support or resistence.

I can't really offer any advice as it's just something I've came up with over the years but I belive my method is similar to volume spread analysis.
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  • #545,800
  • Oct 1, 2011 1:44pm Oct 1, 2011 1:44pm
Quoting leerees
If your trading strategy is catching trends then I'm not one to argue however I would like other retail traders to be mindfull of volumes and institutional buying levels. It's helpfull for everyone if we are all trading with the big boys, rather than against them.

The reason I don't use moving averages or any other forms of indicators is because they skew what's really happening in the market.
exactly, MAS are the useless thing i have come across, MA cant detect if ur arriving at some HUGE SELLERS or HUGE BUYERS

mas lag and i hate that, supply and demand is the way forward, and has been since the creation of any market.
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