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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #361
  • Sep 30, 2011 11:26am Sep 30, 2011 11:26am
Quoting Blobik
In moments like this one, I really hate proxy in my work that prohibits me from using MT But I guess I'll just chill out and try to find best position to get (partially) out of market when I come back from work. And perhaps I'll leave some shorts open - even the strongest EZ magic won't break the Euros fall curse. The effects can only be delayed... So in longer term I hope I get another monthly bearish candle. After all, when you sit away from MT 10 hours a day and sleep at least 6, then you are forced to try longer term moves.
As long as you make green pips, you're doing well
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #362
  • Sep 30, 2011 11:27am Sep 30, 2011 11:27am
Quoting PipPipPip
250+pips.
Congrats PipPipPip
I reached 550 pips floating plus the 54pips I already took in profit
I also just took profit on a USD/JPY long. Another 57 pips
4 trades total in 8 trading days.
Feels good, doesn't it?
Cheers and happy weekend
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #363
  • Sep 30, 2011 11:28am Sep 30, 2011 11:28am
I've made over 300 pips on just the euro this week , im still holding higher sell positions so I have a buffer. I am also in this for the long term given my monthly chart I showed earlier. But it's getting late and the market may not even pop up there waiting for Monday and having patience is the best call.
  • #364
  • Sep 30, 2011 11:35am Sep 30, 2011 11:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
Congrats
thanks pip. youve done great yourself too mate. and it feels great. lol

that 250+ pips was just the two days of this week. not including the month's earnings. check out my joournal. i am still holding that short position. if this month closes around this price range 1.3420-1.3470, i am looking early next week as a potential test at around the 1.36-1.365 area for a possible extra entry. Next week will be nice.
  • #365
  • Sep 30, 2011 11:36am Sep 30, 2011 11:36am
Quoting Gaara
I've made over 300 pips on just the euro this week , im still holding higher sell positions so I have a buffer. I am also in this for the long term given my monthly chart I showed earlier. But it's getting late and the market may not even pop up there waiting for Monday and having patience is the best call.
Exactly. Patience. If you chase it, it will get away from you. Let it come to where you want it. You are the boss, not the price. If the price doesn't listen, screw it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #366
  • Sep 30, 2011 12:24pm Sep 30, 2011 12:24pm
Buy a notebook and 3G access


Quoting Blobik
In moments like this one, I really hate proxy in my work that prohibits me from using MT But I guess I'll just chill out and try to find best position to get (partially) out of market when I come back from work. And perhaps I'll leave some shorts open - even the strongest EZ magic won't break the Euros fall curse. The effects can only be delayed... So in longer term I hope I get another monthly bearish candle. After all, when you sit away from MT 10 hours a day and sleep at least 6, then you are forced to try longer term moves.
  • #367
  • Sep 30, 2011 12:31pm Sep 30, 2011 12:31pm
Not really sure what you are trying to do but...

The best advice I can give you here is that never scale into a loser. What I mean by that that is if you are down on one open position never open a new position (in either way) on the same pair (I know you talk about different pairs).

Scaling into a loser is a sure way to a margin call. Learn to cut off the loser. Which is hard enough to do. Set a limit on how much you can be wrong and cut or set a hard stop loss. It is always ok to be wrong as long as you learn from it.

Losses should be cut never mitigated.

Quoting ntrprz
Does anyone else trade into the trends? For example, if you end up the wrong way on a trade, say you were long EUR/USD while this trade today surely looks to have a long term down trend. I realize it is probably a dangerous strategy, but when you have a reversal in the CCI on the 5 and 15 minute charts accompanied by increasing resistance, and the line is riding the lower bollinger for those periods, do a quick in and out on the bounce with a larger position to try and average into the trade?

I am new at this, but it has helped mitigate my losses...
  • #368
  • Sep 30, 2011 1:05pm Sep 30, 2011 1:05pm
Quoting TheSwede
Buy a notebook and 3G access
swede, i actually have been seriously thinking about tablet pc's.
i know ipads dont work : ( they dont run java w/out serious tweaking, not appropriate for trading.
  • #369
  • Sep 30, 2011 1:24pm Sep 30, 2011 1:24pm
Quoting ntrprz
Does anyone else trade into the trends? For example, if you end up the wrong way on a trade, say you were long EUR/USD while this trade today surely looks to have a long term down trend. I realize it is probably a dangerous strategy, but when you have a reversal in the CCI on the 5 and 15 minute charts accompanied by increasing resistance, and the line is riding the lower bollinger for those periods, do a quick in and out on the bounce with a larger position to try and average into the trade?

I am new at this, but it has helped mitigate my losses...
Just by what your saying I can see your confusing yourself. Keep your trading strategy simple. I know a lot of trades use different indicators but I'm not to big on those. They seem to contradict each other and lag tremendously. The best strategy is price action on support and resistance. Never chase the market. If you miss a trade wait for it to come back to you cause I guarantee it will. The strategy your using is destined to blow out your account. Keep it simple my friend. Besides you shouldve been bullish on the US/CAD. Have you tried a demo before live trading?
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #370
  • Sep 30, 2011 2:28pm Sep 30, 2011 2:28pm
Near 1.34 . Btw, silly me. Was getting nervous because I completely forgot, that I set TP and it was triggered before I got home . But, this rally down is stronger then I expected, and stronger than this what I didn't anticipate. It brings confusion, why is it happening so fast? Aren't we bearish enough, or what ?

Any ideas, about opening after weekend? I guess if we don't get any amazing news then there will be bearish gap... And if we get some EUR positive news, then we simply won't see any gap . Or at least it seems to me, that market is in strong anti-EUR mood. ...Or maybe this is all due to end of the month?
  • #371
  • Sep 30, 2011 3:03pm Sep 30, 2011 3:03pm
Okay, watched the price action till the end. Will the bulls pick up the fight when market opens? Will see. Can't wait to watch what will happen on Monday. See you all when the markets open again
  • #372
  • Sep 30, 2011 4:28pm Sep 30, 2011 4:28pm
Quoting Blobik
Okay, watched the price action till the end. Will the bulls pick up the fight when market opens? Will see. Can't wait to watch what will happen on Monday. See you all when the markets open again

The 12ma(green line) I have on my monthly euro chart below has been good to me. I have been using for some time to indicate long trends.. As you can see up until 2008 the market just stayed above it. In 2008 a open and close below the ma and you can see that huge fall the next 2 months. Then again in Jan. 2010 open and close 5 months of bullish USD. I made a great deal of money on that trade. There was one false break out dec. 2010 but I lost very little compare to the gains I had made plus I just bought on the open and close above the ma and made way more back....

Now here we are piercing the .50 fib with a big candle moving way below the ma historically this looks very good. My opinion is we will see 1.3050 area before any major pull back. I am already in a few shorts ahead of the curve so we can only wait and see but I will open another short on Euro at the start of the next monthly candle(Monday) according to the trade I have been executing , it doesn't happen very often and has BIG potential.

Have a good weekend talk to you guys Monday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro monthly.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #373
  • Oct 1, 2011 10:48am Oct 1, 2011 10:48am
Friday was an interesting day:
As you all know, it was a combination of Week's end in a risk averse market, Month's end and Quarter's end. We did in fact see the equity markets bid upwards for a while but that bidding did not last long. I suspect it was mostly window dressing and short coverings. Anyway, as I warned earlier, we had a sell-off in the afternoon. This drove the EUR/USD down quite aggressively in the final 2 hours of the NY session. Will it gap down over the weekend? That all depends who your broker is and what time they shut down at week's end and start up again next week. However, I suspect most of you will in fact see some gaping. The only question is whether or not price will break last Monday's low of approx 1.3360. According to xe.com the average price (Avg between bid and ask) is currently sitting at 1.3383 (Saturday midday NY time)

New week, new month, new Quarter:
According to my long term analysis mentioned in my second post to this thread, I expect the October candle to be bearish. This is both from a technical perspective as well as fundamental. Both perspectives still support this projection and sentiment is even more negative now. However, before we jump into any new short positions, considering Friday's meltdown of this pair (EUR/USD), we need to see some corrective move to the upside. I believe this correction will take place during the first part of the new week after the pair has finished extending its losses at the opening (unless it is already done). This correction should end on Tuesday. I expect Wednesday and Thursday to be somewhat sideways (ranging), and then it gets very interesting when the ECB will release their rate statement and Trichet holds his last press conference as president before Draghi takes his place. Friday is the famous NFP day. I am chewing my fingernails in anticipation of these two major risk events. It should be interesting.

The chart:
Here is my H1 chart. As you can see I have made some adjustments to it since Friday. As it stands now, provided we do not get a very large gap to the downside, the new "sell" zone (SZ-1) sits between approx 1.3486 and 1.3564. I will be placing a fresh sell limit order at 1.3525. This is where the falling trend line (FTL-1) intersects with the rising trend line (RTL-1) and also coincides with the 50% fib level of the move up from last week's low of 1.3361 and last week's high of 1.3689 and also falls right in the middle of the sell zone. If price does not make it that high by Tuesday, I am ready to take a short position around the 1.3485 area. So far, all indications are that it will in fact reach my 1.3525 limit order and possibly a bit higher. However, as I always say, things can change. So, I stay nimble and ready to adjust to market conditions. If we do not get a corrective move (which I seriously doubt), I have enough shot positions to take me into sufficient profit and make this all worthwhile for me. Currently I have active short positions at 1.37732 and 1.36034

If there are any meterial changes to this update, rest assured I will post them as soon as possible.

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #374
  • Oct 1, 2011 12:04pm Oct 1, 2011 12:04pm
http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/1...59651520111001

I think a Greek default is a foregone conclusion and has been agreed upon for some time by the bankers and their minions in govenment. Various dilatory processes are being thrown up the last many months just to kick the can down the road while the bagholding banks work to limit their exposure to the future, probably scipted and scheduled Greek default..

There will probably be volatility in e/u during October similar to what was seen in September, but more ranging south. When finally the can runs out of road then a supposedly "orderly" default may be announced for Greece. As it becomes clear what the damage is to the eurozone banking sector from this event, the euro will be dropping hard. Such a critical event could play out over several weeks and would have volatile swings in the rate but overall I think you'd have to say 1.1x or even lower is on the table. If things really get out of control and you see a liquidity crisis in the EZ banks across the board then I don't know what could happen. The forex brokers are exposed to such a systemic catastrophe just like all the banks are and at some point they would have to shut down to save their asses if there is a snowballing run on the euro. How safe is the money in your trading account at Broker X?

Pullbacks are a gift to build a short position on. It remains to be seen what the limits of the Greek defult may be. Market is pricing in this even tover weeks and weeks and if a Greek default is seen as a cure for further sovereign debt crisis contagion in the EMU and the damage to the EZ banks is well controlled then the euro may stage a dramatic rebound after the dust settles.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #375
  • Oct 1, 2011 12:17pm Oct 1, 2011 12:17pm
Quoting The Fool
http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/1...59651520111001

I think a Greek default is a foregone conclusion and has been agreed upon for some time by the bankers and their minions in govenment. Various dilatory processes are being thrown up the last many months just to kick the can down the road while the bagholding banks work to limit their exposure to the future, probably scipted and scheduled Greek default..

There will probably be volatility in e/u during October similar to what was seen in September, but more ranging...
Excellent commentary fool.
Thanks for your contribution.
Please keep following and contributing more.
Cheers
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #376
  • Oct 1, 2011 12:45pm Oct 1, 2011 12:45pm
Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #377
  • Oct 1, 2011 2:10pm Oct 1, 2011 2:10pm
in trading always follow the white rabbit

------
fundamentals are driven by NationalDebt of various european countries
non only the so called PIIGS, also others like France are on the brink

look at these charts

http://www.cep.eu/fileadmin/user_upl...zelstaaten.pdf

and US is broke too!!!!!!
http://ow.ly/i/imiv/original
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #378
  • Oct 1, 2011 3:04pm Oct 1, 2011 3:04pm
I think US has potential to tackle their problems better. At least they don't need to pass everything through many different parliments, and they seem to be noticing (a bit late, but still it is positive) their problems and willing to take necessary actions. Its just not clear, what actions would be the good ones; but I think no one can give a good solution, since the problem grew bigger and bigger over the years and now is simply very tough one.

And, US Dollar Index is rebounding from it's lows, and it looks promising. Safe haven status (or semi-safe haven status, whatever you prefer) helps maintain this bullish scenario.

Finally, the problems of Eurozone look far more entertaining, with dozens of rumours, politicians, Merkel-Sarkozy meeting one after another, and conflicts between different countries needs. So this forces US problems out of sight for a while.

Oh, and don't forget, that Europe offers you a "domino effect". After the "Greece default show" - comedy for whole family - you don't need to change channel - after short commercial break you will get action film "Italy struggle", and if you dislike it, you can always hope for a good horror "Sinking Portugal" (or something like that). You may even get "Crashing French Banks", if you are lucky.

I don't believe that everything will get that badly for Eurozone, but still, market always takes worst-case scenario into consideration.

Eyes will turn on US, when the Eurozone problems will start to get smaller (or, burst and move to the past - Greece).

That is my opinion, why US debt problems can be underestimated in near future.

PS. Wow, I became talkative BTW, sorry if I make some mistakes, but I am not a native English speaker and sometimes write horribly.
  • #379
  • Oct 1, 2011 3:22pm Oct 1, 2011 3:22pm
Quoting Blobik
I think US has potential to tackle their problems better. At least they don't need to pass everything through many different parliments, and they seem to be noticing (a bit late, but still it is positive) their problems and willing to take necessary actions. Its just not clear, what actions would be the good ones; but I think no one can give a good solution, since the problem grew bigger and bigger over the years and now is simply very tough one.

And, US Dollar Index is rebounding from it's lows, and it looks promising. Safe haven status (or semi-safe...
you are right, EZ is just a set of horror movies, but on the other hand a group of 17 could control each other better than the FED, which is only controlled by itself.

On the agenda:
Italy has to get a new leader, Sarkozy will perhaps not survive next elections,

interesting for me, nobody in the southern countries wants to have the local currency back, even the greece want to keep the euro,

but there is no solution in sight unless they start restructuring national debts in most of the countries, starting with greece, following by Portugal, Italy and so on, but they will not call it default, just debt restructuring measures accompanied by bank bail-outs.

all this will take years.

cheers

livestream NYC

http://www.livestream.com/globalrevolution
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #380
  • Oct 1, 2011 3:33pm Oct 1, 2011 3:33pm
Quoting walb99
on the other hand a group of 17 could control each other better than the FED, which is only controlled by itself.
Hmm, okay, you have the point .

BTW, right now I think FED is going the right way, since I didn't believe QE to change things (at least, last QE did not improve the situation). And Operation Twist has limited impact, but I think it is one of the best solutions Bernanke had.
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