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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #321
  • Sep 30, 2011 2:26am Sep 30, 2011 2:26am
Quoting TheSwede
Good luck to anyone trading today. Fridays are my day of and we're also having the last day of the month here (also a no no for me).

Will be back on sunday evening (when the Panthers are smashing the Bears) with my chart for the next week.

Have a good weekend.
You too Swede
Cheers
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #322
  • Sep 30, 2011 3:22am Sep 30, 2011 3:22am
For those of you who missed my post earlier this morning, heads up.

5:00am EST EU CPI Flash Estimate y/y expecting 2.5%
5:00am EST EU Unemployment Rate expecting 10%

40 minutes from now.

The CPI figure will give us a hint as to whether or not we can expect an ECB rate cut (if it stays the same or drops)

.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #323
  • Sep 30, 2011 4:05am Sep 30, 2011 4:05am
The sentiment cannot get any worse for the Euro currency
EU CPI Flash Estimate y/y was expected at 2.5% but rose to 3.0%
If the Euro was not so screwed, it would have started to rally by now.
Maybe there is a delayed reaction? I hardly think so. I've traded this news many times and I don't ever remember the market reaction being this stunned.

The writing is on the wall.

ADD: The Euro has dropped almost 30 pips since the news release pffff

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #324
  • Sep 30, 2011 4:37am Sep 30, 2011 4:37am
PT: I think, that it is not as positive news as it seems, because...

Italian data were positive, but French and German - were not. So it is like being happy that you managed to fix flat tire when your engine is about to break down any time. If PIIGS data get better at cost of French and German data - then it is not as optimistic sign as it could be.
  • #325
  • Sep 30, 2011 4:42am Sep 30, 2011 4:42am
Quoting Blobik
PT: I think, that it is not as positive news as it seems, because...

Italian data were positive, but French and German - were not. So it is like being happy that you managed to fix flat tire when your engine is about to break down any time. If PIIGS data get better at cost of French and German data - then it is not as optimistic sign as it could be.
Blobik you are correct and I know this.
I was just trying to make a point about how screwed the EZ is

Read my update from last night. I predicted this. EDIT: (Sorry not last night, Earlier today)

I inferred that the euro will go down harder if inflation was the same or less but would do nothing if it came in higher.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #326
  • Sep 30, 2011 5:07am Sep 30, 2011 5:07am
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Well I should left my trades on from yesterday , but today is another day.
Here is few charts . It was a triple top. Thanks PT for your sentiment.

fishman356
  • #327
  • Sep 30, 2011 5:46am Sep 30, 2011 5:46am
PT: Yes, I agree completely. EZ is screwed.

Judging from charts available to me (cannot use MT at work, so I the best what I have are the ones posted by fishman) we are going to break this triangle soon and try to go 1.35, perhaps staying there to fight against .346. I think .346 may be a support that will hold for today. But as a newbie trader I may be wrong .
  • #328
  • Sep 30, 2011 5:51am Sep 30, 2011 5:51am
Quoting Blobik
... I think .346 may be a support that will hold for today. But as a newbie trader I may be wrong .
I think you may be right on that one Blobik. Markets seem to be quite choppy today. US may bid up equities (month end shuffle and window dressing) right to close and keep it choppy.
However, if that happens, we will have a weekend gap down.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #329
  • Sep 30, 2011 5:55am Sep 30, 2011 5:55am
The German upper house approved the EFSF expansion, and the Euro started falling again.

I say the bulls just got their prairie oysters chopped off.

We shall see what happens on US open. Remember it is month and quater end so SP500 and DJIA may see lots of bidding but I don't expect any more than a choppy market at best.

Although I must admit I would love to see the 1.36 handle again so I can place another short

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #330
  • Sep 30, 2011 6:56am Sep 30, 2011 6:56am
My position trades so far.
Periscope down.
The order at 1.3716 is a sell limit order that never got triggered.. dammit!!!
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #331
  • Edited 7:24am Sep 30, 2011 7:01am | Edited 7:24am
When I think about that, I have additional sell limit at .36... So either way I get a better short or a profit

And, seems my other trades are doing better than I expected today - If it does not change a lot in few hours I'll be in a very good mood today evening

Well, we will see... maybe I'll be back in the money keep fingers crossed

EDIT: BTW, it gets stranger all the time - risk currencies up, USD/JPY - up, only EUR down. Is it now considered more risky than small European countries currencies ?
  • #332
  • Sep 30, 2011 7:34am Sep 30, 2011 7:34am
Hello all!

I have booked the monthly profits and need to take care of a few things today!

Be careful out there as it is FREAKY FRIDAY!

I have posted two fib and one support charts with notes and would appreciate any comments.
Thanks all................back to whittling more teeth!

Have a great weekend!
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  • #333
  • Sep 30, 2011 7:37am Sep 30, 2011 7:37am
Seems like price wants to head up to the 15 minute upper trendline channel around 3520. Above that and 3580 is next. I will sit out of shorts for now as I am Leary that the price may even go higher once above 3520.
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REQUESTING NO VOUCHES.Vouches are useless.
  • #334
  • Sep 30, 2011 7:40am Sep 30, 2011 7:40am
End of week and end of month. Could be profit taking around the corner soon which could take the price up. I will most likely not trade today.
REQUESTING NO VOUCHES.Vouches are useless.
  • #335
  • Sep 30, 2011 7:46am Sep 30, 2011 7:46am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Hello all!

I have booked the monthly profits and need to take care of a few things today!

Be careful out there as it is FREAKY FRIDAY!

I have posted two fib and one support charts with notes and would appreciate any comments.
Thanks all................back to whittling more teeth!

Have a great weekend!
Hey Gopher,

Freaky Friday or not, entry into the sell zone or not, today the fundies will trump all. They may bid up the equity markets today (month and quarter end) but besides bad econ data out of Europe and a whole plethora of other reasons which I outlined in my update, the Troika in Greece are being harassed and not allowed to do their job. Therefore there will be no audit report before market close today. Which means??? That's right, risk aversion before market close. Euro spiral and equities back down to the bottom of the trading range.

In conclusion, my shorts are in place and I'm ready for it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #336
  • Sep 30, 2011 7:49am Sep 30, 2011 7:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
Hey Gopher,

Freaky Friday or not, entry into the sell zone or not, today the fundies will trump all. They may bid up the equity markets today (month and quarter end) but besides bad econ data out of Europe and a whole plethora of other reasons which I outlined in my update, the Troika in Greece are being harassed and not allowed to do their job. Therefore there will be no audit report before market close today. Which means??? That's right, risk aversion before market close. Euro spiral and equities back down to the bottom of the trading range.

In...
Hey PipTrapper, thanks for your insights fundamentally. I am not very strong fundamentally. Keep them coming!!!
REQUESTING NO VOUCHES.Vouches are useless.
  • #337
  • Sep 30, 2011 7:56am Sep 30, 2011 7:56am
Shorts look set for a fakey fakey, so keep stops tight.

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Dotted blue line needs to be revisited imo.
  • #338
  • Sep 30, 2011 8:06am Sep 30, 2011 8:06am
hmmm weak internet today. Storming here. Well have a great weekend everyone
REQUESTING NO VOUCHES.Vouches are useless.
  • #339
  • Sep 30, 2011 8:11am Sep 30, 2011 8:11am
On "Freaky Fridays", it is sometimes best that the markets open lower so that the bidding takes place in the morning and the selloff takes place after lunch.

If they do bid up and the sell off does not break support, we will most probably gap down over the weekend.

Remember, I am not psychic, and past performance does not guarantee future results but I do know what has always happened on risk-averse Fridays.

Stay nimble and best of luck today.

ADD:

Oil: Down
Gold: Down
EUR Index: Down
All Equities: Down
USD: UP
JPY: UP

Cannot get any more of a risk averse signal than that.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #340
  • Sep 30, 2011 8:14am Sep 30, 2011 8:14am
See you have a live order. On what did you take that on if I may ask?

Quoting ukdaytrader
Shorts look set for a fakey fakey, so keep stops tight.

Attachment

Dotted blue line needs to be revisited imo.
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