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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,821
  • Sep 29, 2011 11:41am Sep 29, 2011 11:41am
Quoting Alorente
I agree with your positive assessment, but what are the factors that make you believe that? I would really like to know...

On the monthly chart i attached you can see that the previous month it went up to test previous months resistence but couldn't make it up there and came crashing down closing below it's opening price. Now after that candle you would think it would continue falling down even more but the market had other things in store.

As we can see it has held up very well making a higher low then the previous month and trading in a very tight inside range. Very strong signs of a reversal taking place and by the looks of things with 1 day to go before this months candle closes, it seems it will close above it's opening price!. So there should be no reason at all why it won't continue up next month. Those 2 lines i drew would be the major resistance levels we want to see it test and where i would most likely be taking profit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd.jpy1.png Size: 9 KB
Happy Trading
  • #27,822
  • Sep 29, 2011 11:42am Sep 29, 2011 11:42am
Quoting freiburg
i deleted the rebelling comment because now i am in the money again. Ok, will ride up to 77.30. not selling anymore (but it was nice to squeeze out some cash a second time again).



we all climb the Great Wall of Worry together!!

Here is the daily chart. I hope to relieve a little bit of your stress. There is clear sailing until we get to the 60EMA which coincides with the spine of the channel at 77.30/40. It may stick there for a day or two, but I think we will clear it and move to the top wall of the channel at 78.60 quickly. The reason I say this is because the Fast Trix on the THV is right now crossing the Slow Trix and about to cross the 0.00 line. You cannot get any more bullish than those two signals. On top of that, there is a bull divergence on the THV (Green Arrow) and several price divergences on the RSI. Also, the RSI is ready to cross 50. It hasnīt climbed much above 50 since the March intervention. I think it is about to do just that in this instance. Also, I use Heikin Ashi candles. This is the third green candle. Until a candle turns red there is nothing to worry about.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 114 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,823
  • Sep 29, 2011 11:51am Sep 29, 2011 11:51am
Quoting extract
On the monthly chart i attached you can see that the previous month it went up to test previous months resistence but couldn't make it up there and came crashing down closing below it's opening price. Now after that candle you would think it would continue falling down even more but the market had other things in store.

As we can see it has held up very well making a higher low then the previous month and trading in a very tight inside range. Very strong signs of a reversal taking place and by the looks of things with 1 day to go before this months...
Yes. Also the Doji candle we are building for Sept with one day to go is very meaningful on the monthly. especially combined with the third consecutive RSI price divergence on the monthly chart (1st in 11/2009, 2nd in 10/2010 and now in 09/2011). There are many indications that point the bullīs way in charts of ALL time frames.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,824
  • Sep 29, 2011 12:08pm Sep 29, 2011 12:08pm
Quoting Alorente
Yes. Also the Doji candle we are building for Sept with one day to go is very meaningful on the monthly. especially combined with the third consecutive RSI price divergence on the monthly chart (1st in 11/2009, 2nd in 10/2010 and now in 09/2011). There are many indications that point the bullīs way in charts of ALL time frames.

Yes that Doji is looking very delicious indeed. Also lets not forget the fact that today we hit 77.02 which was previous weeks High. So if you think about it with all these reasons why it will go up this would have to be the easiest long ever. I'm all in hope you guys are to

Happy Trading
Extract
Happy Trading
  • #27,825
  • Sep 29, 2011 12:13pm Sep 29, 2011 12:13pm
Quoting extract
Yes that Doji is looking very delicious indeed. Also lets not forget the fact that today we hit 77.02 which was previous weeks High. So if you think about it with all these reasons why it will go up this would have to be the easiest long ever. I'm all in hope you guys are to

Happy Trading
Extract
HEY, I am suspicious and generally terrified.

NEVER say "easy long." Please. It means the robots will stop me out!
  • #27,826
  • Sep 29, 2011 12:13pm Sep 29, 2011 12:13pm
Quoting extract
On the monthly chart i attached you can see that the previous month it went up to test previous months resistence but couldn't make it up there and came crashing down closing below it's opening price. Now after that candle you would think it would continue falling down even more but the market had other things in store.

As we can see it has held up very well making a higher low then the previous month and trading in a very tight inside range. Very strong signs of a reversal taking place and by the looks of things with 1 day to go before this months...
Here is the monthly chart. I use Heikin Ashi candles so they look a little different than yours but here is the point I want to make. I Placed an arrow in the exact spot where the bar for the month of October crosses the wall of the 4+ year long descending wedge. Guess what? that point at 80.50 matches the line of resistance that you drew in your chart. Two different ways at arriving at the same point. As you know, when a descending wedge is broken, price is expected to return to the original start point of the wedge (123.60), but breaking the wedge upper wall will not be easy. There will be quite a battle going on when price meets that wall, so it is perfectly logical to plan to take profits at that point. Plus, even if it breaks the wall, you will most likely get another chance to get back in later, since wedge walls when broken are almost always tested on the other side before heading up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 112 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,827
  • Sep 29, 2011 12:35pm Sep 29, 2011 12:35pm
Earlier I am short,But Now am long..there is no technical reason for short now..Daily Show bullish,and We break the range bar already...when you guys decided short then keep hold your short,if long then keep hold your long...nobody is wrong or correct...your MM is your problem,simple like that
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,828
  • Sep 29, 2011 12:56pm Sep 29, 2011 12:56pm
Quoting FXMindset
Daily Show bullish
Can you please show us a chart and tell us what exactly you think is bullish about current daily setting ? I fail to see it.
  • #27,829
  • Edited 2:39pm Sep 29, 2011 1:49pm | Edited 2:39pm
Hello Sigurs

I have attached my Daily chart many times but hey yo here again simple because I think you are quite cute and adorable sigurs
1.My Daily Green Lines cross the red lines - 80 % accurate and I've made money based on that indicator in these years as long we stick with it combine with several simple trendlines
2.We've have 2 bottom low which we close higher ( Blue mark ) and We've break the range of inside bar today which is 76.96 ( Orange Mark ) Indicated Bullish

am added some POIN for longterm outlook

3.We Possible see DOJI This Close Month which will be show NEW BEGINNING
4.There were many DRAGON FLY FLYING above 76.00 in these past 30 days over

BUT

I am see 73-74 @ Monthly

Anything can be happens,as I stated before the JPY cross will always brings effect to UJ pairs whatever and am see this happened many times over and over again.

"Euro Sell and Yen will be Bought" While USD also Be Bought...

I need today daily close above 76.60 to remain Bullish,if not am gonna cut my "long" short again.We see it breaks but the moves so slow and the price keep drop doesnt mean you are wrong..as long your technical show bull or bear keep it and personaly how many % you are willing to risk..stick with it...Stay discipline with your rules...

I have a quite simple technical only,but as long the winning rate is 70% should be no problem with me,the key is MM..however confirm you are with the moves dont bet to big..this is rules

If am see bulls even the prices keep drop..I wont be afraid and change my bias outlook untill the green lines cross against the red lines.

Trading simple is psychology and mind tactic sometimes....but its very difficult applied by human indeed

you shouldnt need to follow me as I'm simple idiot and stupid and the pro never like the way am trade
this is my personal analysis only.If you analysis show "short" then go for it bro
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily.png Size: 31 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,830
  • Sep 29, 2011 9:29pm Sep 29, 2011 9:29pm
Good Usd/Jpy Buy order at 76.30/35 with TP at first target 77.15/20, 2nd 77.35/40 3rd 77.70/75 with open TP for intervention purposes, SL below 76.10
  • #27,831
  • Sep 29, 2011 9:35pm Sep 29, 2011 9:35pm
Yesterday sell close... +27.4p
  • #27,832
  • Sep 29, 2011 11:47pm Sep 29, 2011 11:47pm
I still think 74.00 will happen before 78.00....
USD has been weak and JPY is still appreciating...
Next month will shall see a new low....
  • #27,833
  • Sep 30, 2011 12:29am Sep 30, 2011 12:29am
Hi Alontet i seem to b in line with u.kindly upload ur green n red indicator.thanks
  • #27,834
  • Sep 30, 2011 1:35am Sep 30, 2011 1:35am
Well after last nights performance of hitting 77.02 and trickling down to close at 76.6 on the daily which is it's highest closing price so far this week and forming a higher low to boot, today we will be watching to see if she can retest yesterdays high and actually stay there this time!

Extract
Happy Trading
Happy Trading
  • #27,835
  • Sep 30, 2011 1:43am Sep 30, 2011 1:43am
Azumi speaks

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7KU03T20110930

also, today is supposed to be the last day of Japan exporter repatriation. So maybe we get to up again in European and American sessions!
  • #27,836
  • Edited 3:36am Sep 30, 2011 3:23am | Edited 3:36am
Quoting freiburg
Azumi speaks

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7KU03T20110930

also, today is supposed to be the last day of Japan exporter repatriation. So maybe we get to up again in European and American sessions!
Thank you for that post freiburg. Reading into the article they seem very serious.
Gone to a better place
  • #27,837
  • Sep 30, 2011 3:24am Sep 30, 2011 3:24am
Quoting freiburg
Azumi speaks

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7KU03T20110930

also, today is supposed to be the last day of Japan exporter repatriation. So maybe we get to up again in European and American sessions!
Thatīs exactly right. Today and next week we finally should reap the rewards of our patience.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,838
  • Sep 30, 2011 3:33am Sep 30, 2011 3:33am
Quoting Alorente
Thatīs exactly right. Today and next week we finally should reap the rewards of our patience.
what do you think of TRY/JPY? Turkey's economy is doing well, and their currency has depreciated the most (and they want to strengthen) versus Yen (economy is hurting and they want to depreciate yen).

Also, TRY/JPY pays big interest while you sit and wait.
  • #27,839
  • Sep 30, 2011 3:33am Sep 30, 2011 3:33am
Quoting pip police
Hi Alontet i seem to b in line with u.kindly upload ur green n red indicator.thanks
I assume you mean the chart by the red and green indicator so here it is. This is the H4 chart. We are attacking the 200SMA again right now. Seven times in the last couple of days. I have a feeling this time it breaks it. Then we need to test it from the other side and hold it. After that, we will be on our way to 80. I believe next week will be a lot of fun for the longs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 120 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,840
  • Sep 30, 2011 3:40am Sep 30, 2011 3:40am
Quoting freiburg
what do you think of TRY/JPY? Turkey's economy is doing well, and their currency has depreciated the most (and they want to strengthen) versus Yen (economy is hurting and they want to depreciate yen).

Also, TRY/JPY pays big interest while you sit and wait.
You may be right, but I firmly believe in specialization. I concentrate on just 4 items: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold and S&P500 futures. Those 4 keep me more than busy for the entire day and part of the night. I find that when I stray into other pairs that I donīt know as well, my win % (right now at 93%) drops considerably. To me it is crucial to have a high win average. It builds the confidence needed to act without hesitation or stress.
Observation is the path to discovery.
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