EurAnalysis

And despite the huge drop, it didn't even push the markets higher

Now that tells a story, doesn't it?

I count 7 aggressive rejections in the last 8 hours.

Nobody likes the Euro any more.

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PT here was a good entry and scalp on the 5m TF.
The 1 min TF makes me

Nice. I think I'd have bloodshot eyes and high blood pressure if I had to start scalping manually though.

Im' looking for that time machine again! Anyone have one for sale???
Those dadgum Indies!

chart update

Thanks Walb99

yes, This was a old system , I was trading a while back, and I use it for reference, it was the Rover North ea, when pa bounces off the 10 ema I believe you go for at least 10 pips or more, depending on what side of the 144. Now , I use and old system mixture of Linear Regression and TSF ,from qqsamudra ,and Market Profile, to date this has been my most profitable system.

I am at school right now and I gave my opinion of the EURUSD going up... it looks a little late to jump in but I strongly believe it's not. I know that this is euroanalysis but I recommed to buy AUDUSD, sell USDCAD and but NZDUSD at 11:30 EST (some minutes from now)

Pbh

Over and out

Hmm I'll google rover north.
I've been using the 10ema since I started trading in 2002. Got the idea off a veteran trader. I used it in much the same way as you describe and it still comes in useful for entries. The 144 is used to determine how overbought or oversold a pair is although I also use double Bollinger Bands over 21 periods with 1st and 2nd deviation.
I try to keep my charts as bare as possible but I do need some kind of reference to keep everything in perspective.

Thanks for your contribution pbh.
In the future, when making a trade recommendation, could you possibly attach some charts as a reference and/or a technical or fundamental rationale behind it?
It is part of the rules of this thread. Look here
Thanks

Update on a 5 minute basis.Price is just trading inside a mini channel on the 5 min chart. I think below the channel trendline and we test the neck line again and below the neckline we test the next trendline you see in blue around the 3550 area.
ABOVE the upper mini trendline channel and we test the previous channel trendline or even better.

I will be thinking sell rallies unless/until the dx breaks below the trendline on the 4 hour chart I posted earlier.

11:50 est

Nobody knows anything with 100% certainty when it comes to these markets. We just go based on the best evidence available to us at the time of analysis and that can change any time.

What I have laid out in this thread has in fact come to fruition. Those projections I made were based on technical and fundamental analysis. The technicals have not really changed but the fundamentals are in a state of flux.

I cannot tell you that 1.37 is the highest it will go but what I can tell you is that so far I see a sell zone more or less in the range of 1.3680 to 1.3730
That is what it looks like right now. In the morning I may have different projections.

One thing I can say though. Tomorrow is month and quarter end. Fund managers will be rebalancing their portfolios and exercising some window dressing (Buying potentially winning equities just for the sake of putting the money in their fund to work). This could potentially rally the equity indices.
However, I cannot see the euro maintaining any gains it may realize from these activities.

Furthermore, I doubt the equity markets will close bullish on a Friday while the Troika is still auditing Greece's books.

Another thing you should note. The general sentiment out there is to sell into all euro rallies in the sell zone I outlined above. If that zone gets squeezed to the upside, there are several other zone limits behind it where the selling will become more aggressive. These levels are approx 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3870, 1.3940

Nobody likes the Euro this week. The recent up moves are no more than a technical correction which is probably bound to break out to the downside sometime tomorrow.

Also note that today while the equity markets were rallying and the Euro was popping up into the sell zone, price was being aggressively rejected. All 7 H1 candles that penetrated the sell zone ended up with long wicks on the top and closed below the falling channel resistance. This when for the last 12 to 14 months, the Euro moved in unison with the SP500. Today, just like the first 5 months of 2010, that correlation seems to have been broken. Will it continue that way? It seems like it will for a little while. You can thank USD strength for that.

For tomorrow, I see the Euro possibly making a push to the upside into the sell zone. I believe there is sufficient supply in that zone to keep the Euro grounded.

As you can see from the Fib on the chart, we have reached the 50% fib level (1.3649) of the down move from 1.3936 to 1.3361. Perhaps (and I emphasize PERHAPS) tomorrow we will see it go up to the 61.8 fib level at 1.3716 before reversing downwards again to possibly get ready to start it's continuation next week.

Be prepared for anything and expect the unexpected. Stay nimble and happy green pips to all of you.

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we broke the neckline now lets see if we can test the lower trendline.

Nice explanation there PT. I am on your side with this also. Here is a 4 hr chart that I have been keeping track of for quite a while now.

finally

we may go back to test 3610 then back to break 3580