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  • #1,541
  • Sep 28, 2011 4:15am Sep 28, 2011 4:15am
Very weak breakout from cable ..still at CZ till now.. Not an easy day ,will watch till US open..Good Luck !!
  • #1,542
  • Sep 28, 2011 5:54am Sep 28, 2011 5:54am
Not a bad day.. Got hit by cable but gain from eu ..even only + 35 pips..Hope you guys also got some pips from EU ..Good Luck !!
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  • #1,543
  • Sep 28, 2011 8:45am Sep 28, 2011 8:45am
Didn't take the U/G breakout because it appeared to be losing steam on the initial bo - but (I have only 3 pairs up) DID take the E/CAD and popped my 30 pips + spread. Only did 1 lot. But this system is so solid I'm thinking seriously of increasing lots.
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  • #1,544
  • Sep 28, 2011 9:45am Sep 28, 2011 9:45am
Quoting forexhard
Speaking of G/U, am I the only one to notice this amazing price arc?

How many times does this make by now?
Quite often, I noticed that almost 80% of time it comes back.
  • #1,545
  • Sep 28, 2011 1:04pm Sep 28, 2011 1:04pm
Just taken a short position on Cable.
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  • #1,546
  • Sep 28, 2011 1:09pm Sep 28, 2011 1:09pm
I've noticed that winning trades tend to fly without going anywhere near the CZ again and losers tend to dither back into the CZ fairly quickly and finally hit the stops on the back of the CZ (standard stop).

If an effort to maximise R:R I'm going to test a few different stop positions and see if I can put some backtest results together. I positioned the stop in the middle of the CZ on the Cable trade I took a few minutes ago.

I'm also wondering whether placing it on the front edge, or very close to it would maximise R:R?

Has anyone else experimented with this?

Forexhard: I'd be very interested to know if you have already been through this process in the many long hours you have been trading this system. Did you already try out these different positions and return to using the back edge of the CZ?
  • #1,547
  • Sep 28, 2011 4:49pm Sep 28, 2011 4:49pm
Fair enough. Just trying to work out expectancies of various combinations of TP, SL etc and it seemed sensible to ask the question rather than spend weeks working out an answer. It's just maths at the end of the day, not trading skill or experience.

@FH - please ignore.

Quoting Flamenco143
I was looking at it too and it basically came down to a coin toss. Had I gone in I would have scalped it for 10 pips or so as the downward trend was weak, that and the time of day in NY made me decide to pass. That and the Big Dogs in the NY session have been very indecisive lately as to what direction they're going to take.

And a P.S. to Pixelboy. If I were you I'd seriously consider deleted that inquiry to Forexhard. Knowing him personally for about 4 years I believe he'll be more than a little insulted you even asking him if he's...
  • #1,548
  • Sep 28, 2011 6:57pm Sep 28, 2011 6:57pm
Wow, I go away for a few hours to make some tourists happy and I come back to this! Anyone need stitches?

Here's the answer as I see it. There can be no master templates within this system except the ones you make for your own style of trading. There are just too many pairs, and too many that behave so differently from all the rest. Think about it. Some of my CZ's are only 12 pips tall. Another one is 45 pips. Yet another is 120. Most of the rest in between are 28, 29, or 30 pips tall. It is for these reasons that I have kept TP/SL discussions around here to a minimum. I have always said to search for your own sweet spots and to save your own templates as you see fit. But for general discussions here in this teaching thread I encourage everyone to post similar-looking charts in an effort to help eliminate confusion, especially for the noobs.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,549
  • Sep 28, 2011 8:42pm Sep 28, 2011 8:42pm
I want to agree with forexhard's comment above. The threads you read on FF are designed to give you the basics of the system, a guide so to speak. It can only point you in the direction, you have to fine tune it to your liking.

The reason that a lot of these threads on here become so stagnant and unreadable is so many followers try to change this or that or they ask a zillion, already answered questions and want everything handed to them all boxed up and ready to go. In this game we play called forex, you must put in the work to get the benefit of the teachings that are provided to you, plain and simple. if you have to read through 100+ pages of material to do it, so be it. If you have to practice on demo and fine tune everything for 6 months to a year, so be it.

I here a lot of people say that he has this huge ego and they think that he doesn't want to listen to anyone's opinion and that is a bunch of crap. Forexhard, just like I am, is not here to hold anyone's hand and to spoon feed you the knowledge that you need to be successful. We keep a tighter control of our threads than most people like to hear and it rubs them the wrong way, too bad. If you don't like it, you do not have to read it. If you think that it comes across as being egocentric, then you have the wrong attitude to be in the thread anyhow. I personally have taken ideas from this thread and used them to improve the strategies I have done in the past and I have played around with the settings that work best for me, I just don't post it here because it clutters up the original premise we started with.
  • #1,550
  • Sep 28, 2011 8:45pm Sep 28, 2011 8:45pm
Whew , now that my rant is over, I thought I'd gloat a little about my prediction I made yesterday. Pic 1 is the prediction and Pic 2 is the result. Man, I good!!!
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  • #1,551
  • Sep 28, 2011 11:36pm Sep 28, 2011 11:36pm
Yeah, but when you draw 37 lines on a small chart, price is sure to touch half of them at some time or another!

Serious, show us a play-by-play now on what you did with that trade. Now that you, me, and Flamenco have scared off all the noobs here today, the more experienced guys left behind are curious.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,552
  • Sep 28, 2011 11:39pm Sep 28, 2011 11:39pm
The other day we had a 4-day 370-pip arc. Here's one from today. Nearly identical in shape, just a lot smaller.

Patterns, patterns, everywhere. Hmmm...
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,553
  • Sep 28, 2011 11:41pm Sep 28, 2011 11:41pm
So I re-entered long on EG after being taken out on the short trade!
+23 pips on 1st part rest of position closed +3 pips.

Just got back in after long signal @ 0.87089 lets hope this is positive again!!

Great system FH!

Thank you
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  • #1,554
  • Sep 29, 2011 6:26am Sep 29, 2011 6:26am
Quoting forexhard
...... Now that you, me, and Flamenco have scared off all the noobs here today, the more experienced guys left behind are curious.
At least one noob remains curious ......
  • #1,555
  • Sep 29, 2011 9:54am Sep 29, 2011 9:54am
I don't know, Tpc. Mer might have thought I was teasing him and didn't really want to know.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,556
  • Sep 29, 2011 10:01am Sep 29, 2011 10:01am
Hello all been a while but I'm still making that money baby.
30 pips for the kid.
Anderson
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  • #1,557
  • Sep 29, 2011 10:11am Sep 29, 2011 10:11am
Quoting forexhard
Yeah, but when you draw 37 lines on a small chart, price is sure to touch half of them at some time or another!

Serious, show us a play-by-play now on what you did with that trade. Now that you, me, and Flamenco have scared off all the noobs here today, the more experienced guys left behind are curious.
Good point, FH
  • #1,558
  • Sep 29, 2011 11:00am Sep 29, 2011 11:00am
Hello everyone... just catched up reading the thread... ufff
wanna thank forexhard, Squalou and other participants))
...and i've got a couple of questions/suggestions in my backpack (accumulated while reading this thread)

1. Forexhard, about the pic in this post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4898858#post4898858
thats actually the corrent LONG trade entrance (under squared "16p") which got stopped out, on the second candle closed above the buffer, right?

2. Forexhard, you mentioned there were several(at least 4) pairs thats suit to this system well. As I understand, you are actively monitoring and trading them... so the question is about correlation - we all know that e/u & g/u behaves similar... so i'm interested how often these 4 pairs triggers simultaniuosly. Were there on occasion any case where they all syncronously hit SL ?

3. Forexhard,
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4944477#post4944477
since that post you made your bead/bull candles of the same color... and i think that while removing confusion of one kind it adds another - now its pretty hard to distinguish where is the 2nd opening and where is actually its close.

4. Pixelboy, on the pic in post #1545 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4996006#post4996006
why didnt you enter LONG before the short ??? as I understand, there were 3 valid LONG entrances, each on a 2nd close... Or am i missing smtng?

PS: sorry for my english, it's not my native one
  • #1,559
  • Sep 29, 2011 1:22pm Sep 29, 2011 1:22pm
Hi Niktesla - I took the short position because it was the first signal short for that CZ. I have been taking the first signal from each CZ, then if it fails, waiting for an opposite signal and ignoring further signals from the original direction.

I'm not sure if this is the best plan or if forexhard takes trades this way. I was just trying it out and seeing if it worked.

To be honest, my attempts at trading this system aren't working at all, so don't take my advice! So far I'm losing roughly double what I make in profit. This isn't a criticism of the system, just an admission that my way of trading it isn't working.

It's bloody frustrating when you follow the rules to the letter and can't make a single dollar profit from a system that everyone else seems to think is a virtual ATM!

But for me this is probably the most valuable lesson of all: to make a trading system profitable, you need to work on it for a huge amount of time, like FH has with this. Make it your own and not just follow someone else's system blindly. And finally realise that trading is mostly great money management and psychology, not simple entry points.

So it's back to slaving over a hot MT4 until I get this right :-)



Quoting Niktesla
Hello everyone... just catched up reading the thread... ufff
wanna thank forexhard, Squalou and other participants))
...and i've got a couple of questions/suggestions in my backpack (accumulated while reading this thread)

1. Forexhard, about the pic in this post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4898858#post4898858
thats actually the corrent LONG trade entrance (under squared "16p") which got stopped out, on the second candle closed above the buffer, right?

2. Forexhard, you mentioned...
  • #1,560
  • Sep 29, 2011 2:52pm Sep 29, 2011 2:52pm
Quote
Yeah, but when you draw 37 lines on a small chart, price is sure to touch half of them at some time or another!

Serious, show us a play-by-play now on what you did with that trade. Now that you, me, and Flamenco have scared off all the noobs here today, the more experienced guys left behind are curious.
Yeah, but I specifically picked out 1 line out of the "37", the 161.8 extension . I had summarized my thoughts in post #1535 shown below.

Quote
Long term, price has retraced back to the 86 fib (pic 1) which is indicating that there is no more buyer support and also the previous CZ's box breakout area should act as a minor blockade for any possible surge north. On the smaller front, the recent fib downswing has retraces to the 61.8 fib (pic 2, small blue box) and has temporarily stalled at the 38.2 extension. It is not a guarantee, but usually a 61.8 retrace will try and continue it's way down to the 161.8 extension. Beware of the level confluence from the previous CZ around TP 2
All I did was wait for the break down after the London open kicked in. My first two were false alarms using the 2 bar close rule, and you would've entered on the third try.

If you use the box extension like I do, you could've picked up two more long trades and one short trade with a fourth possibility still to come as we have retraced back to the 76.4 fib, a common retrace point for the Gbp/Usd. We would have to break through a double top and a previous CZ to get there though. But that's just me personally though, and not the norm.
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