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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,721
  • Sep 28, 2011 3:41am Sep 28, 2011 3:41am
Back to the trading range. Still, a new trendline is established on the candles. It is important that it is not broken. I expect another attack on the 200 SMA (Blue line) and this time with a clear break. But... we must break 77 to consider this move the real one to 80. The indicators look better all the time. It is really amazing how long the price bars are taking to get in line with the indicators. They will though. Iīm confident of this. The indicators always lead and the bars follow, sometimes reluctantly, but they follow.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,722
  • Sep 28, 2011 3:56am Sep 28, 2011 3:56am
thanks for these nice posts Alorente. I did one clever thing ... a I sold my position yesterday and bought same number of units back about 20 pips lower ... so scalped a little cash, but I'm always hesitant to do that since you might have to then play catch up with the train, which I always fail at. Still in for the "big" move to 80+, and hope I don't have to play this get out get back in too often, since it stresses me out!

By the way, BOJ governer said today that Japanese economy is in horrible shape. BOJ has a monetary policy meeting next week. Prime minister also noted that they need to tack national debt, which is more than double GDP. Exporters will be complaining once they have repatriated yen and profits hit. So fundamentals and jawboning lined up too.
  • #27,723
  • Sep 28, 2011 3:58am Sep 28, 2011 3:58am
still waitin on this turd

break 78= 80.24

break 75= 72.5

till then....
  • #27,724
  • Sep 28, 2011 4:05am Sep 28, 2011 4:05am
Another point in the longsī favor is the Inverted Head and Shoulders formation that has developed in the H4 chart in the past few days. I marked the neckline in red (around 77). Yesterday we bounced off the neckline, but as long as the trendline created by the head and the right shoulder remains intact, the H&S formation will remain valid. If we break the neckline, the minimum projection in price is to 77.90. Most head & shoulders surpass the minimum considerably. I expect 80 to be the short term resistance.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,725
  • Sep 28, 2011 4:13am Sep 28, 2011 4:13am
Quoting freiburg
thanks for these nice posts Alorente. I did one clever thing ... a I sold my position yesterday and bought same number of units back about 20 pips lower ... so scalped a little cash, but I'm always hesitant to do that since you might have to then play catch up with the train, which I always fail at. Still in for the "big" move to 80+, and hope I don't have to play this get out get back in too often, since it stresses me out!

By the way, BOJ governer said today that Japanese economy is in horrible shape. BOJ has a monetary policy meeting next...
I know what you mean about the stress created getting in and out and the fear of missing the train. I struggled with that many times years ago. What I found to be a good solution is to hold 1/2 of your position no matter what and trade aggresively the other half. That seems to make both halves of the brain happy, since I donīt feel that stress anymore.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,726
  • Sep 28, 2011 4:40am Sep 28, 2011 4:40am
I expect this week/month/quarter to end wild.
  • #27,727
  • Sep 28, 2011 4:50am Sep 28, 2011 4:50am
UJ & USDX Daily Progress so far In London Session
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,728
  • Sep 28, 2011 7:11am Sep 28, 2011 7:11am
Same songs, different singers.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2962...down-from-here

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...709643196.html

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2964...-remains-heavy
  • #27,729
  • Sep 28, 2011 7:39am Sep 28, 2011 7:39am
... something is up :-)
  • #27,730
  • Sep 28, 2011 7:56am Sep 28, 2011 7:56am
Quoting freiburg
... something is up :-)

and now down
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #27,731
  • Sep 28, 2011 7:59am Sep 28, 2011 7:59am
Quoting Faller
and now down
these are inklings and green shoots ... LOL ... but plant can keel over and die anytime.
  • #27,732
  • Sep 28, 2011 8:21am Sep 28, 2011 8:21am
Quoting freiburg
these are inklings and green shoots ... LOL ... but plant can keel over and die anytime.
With today included, the last 5 days have all had a higher low than the day before while the spread between the high and the low keeps contracting. Another factor pointing at a breakout soon. Before the end of this week we should break 77.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,733
  • Sep 28, 2011 8:26am Sep 28, 2011 8:26am
Quoting Alorente
With today included, the last 5 days have all had a higher low than the day before while the spread between the high and the low keeps contracting. Another factor pointing at a breakout soon. Before the end of this week we should break 77.

But today we did break below yesterdays low......so that ends the inside day pattern..........remember I trade the yen futures so price is inverse to the forex price you traders trade......posting a chart....pretty much same chart as yesterday just showing price dropping out of channel and now back in....
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I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #27,734
  • Sep 28, 2011 8:56am Sep 28, 2011 8:56am
I have identified the channel we are in, including the spine or mid trendline. This will help us identify supprot and resistance levels on the way up. If this is the channel, the 200SMA (Blue line) will move to the bottom wall and then turn up and parallel it.
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,735
  • Sep 28, 2011 9:01am Sep 28, 2011 9:01am
This pair is slow but safe. I always open 2 long positions around 76.30 or lower and put both stops at 75.90. i close one long when it goes around to 76.70 and leave the other one open. I play this strategy for a few days and get not bad pips so even if it will break 75.90 and s/l me it is fine since i alredy gain enough to cover the loss on this pair.
  • #27,736
  • Sep 28, 2011 9:32am Sep 28, 2011 9:32am
Quoting Yuchen
This pair is slow but safe. I always open 2 long positions around 76.30 or lower and put both stops at 75.90. i close one long when it goes around to 76.70 and leave the other one open. I play this strategy for a few days and get not bad pips so even if it will break 75.90 and s/l me it is fine since i alredy gain enough to cover the loss on this pair.
Good Job Bro
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,737
  • Edited 10:17am Sep 28, 2011 9:37am | Edited 10:17am
Quoting Faller
But today we did break below yesterdays low......so that ends the inside day pattern..........remember I trade the yen futures so price is inverse to the forex price you traders trade......posting a chart....pretty much same chart as yesterday just showing price dropping out of channel and now back in....
We didn't break yesterday's low (from Europe and Japan perspective). Bid was 76.266 at 03:50 Central European Time on September 27 on 5 minute Oanda chart..
  • #27,738
  • Sep 28, 2011 10:15am Sep 28, 2011 10:15am
Quoting freiburg
We didn't break yesterday's low (from Europe and Japan perspective). It was 76.286 at 03:55 Central European Time on September 27.
So Details
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,739
  • Sep 28, 2011 10:22am Sep 28, 2011 10:22am
Quoting FXMindset
So Details
This may be a chat group ... but serious money is at stake!
  • #27,740
  • Sep 28, 2011 10:23am Sep 28, 2011 10:23am
Quoting freiburg
This may be a chat group ... but serious money is at stake!
him talking about futures, really disturbing
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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