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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,681
  • Sep 27, 2011 9:59am Sep 27, 2011 9:59am
Quoting freiburg
I know exactly what you mean. This is a twisted game. I am just learning. Every day I am learning. When I'm successful, I'll let you know :-))

At this moment I am up significantly (avg price 76.37 with lots of leverage) ... but I don't know if I should sell. Grabbing the profit now and missing out on a move higher, or believing my (usually wrong) belief that this will go down.

aaaaaaaaaaaaargh
well in trades you should do certainly what YOU feel is right.
I've been busy very long with this pair (not that it means something) but I lost so many 10-20-30-40-50 gains on my trades waiting for the big move, that I now regularly cash in my longs, but saying this it could well be a signal
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,682
  • Sep 27, 2011 10:21am Sep 27, 2011 10:21am
Quoting USD-Bear
well in trades you should do certainly what YOU feel is right.
I've been busy very long with this pair (not that it means something) but I lost so many 10-20-30-40-50 gains on my trades waiting for the big move, that I now regularly cash in my longs, but saying this it could well be a signal
another possibility is that USD/JPY will go up ... not as a nice white bar etc etc, but rather climbing the wall of fear. Today's price action looks looks a bit like climbing the wall of fear.

As long as it hold, with higher highs over at least a few days, with the occasional drop down, I think this is the "green shoots" we're looking for. Or maybe pre-shoots :-))
  • #27,683
  • Sep 27, 2011 10:34am Sep 27, 2011 10:34am
it keeps collecting bars within bars on daily, anybody knows what it means within TA?

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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,684
  • Sep 27, 2011 11:52am Sep 27, 2011 11:52am
My 60 min chart is narrowing down.....just like the daily - another inside day of trading.......things are coiling up....

Chart posted - Just a simple chart with 2 yellow trend lines.....see how price is compressing.
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I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #27,685
  • Sep 27, 2011 11:54am Sep 27, 2011 11:54am
The % of Breaking Upside Tomorrow may be higher if today we close above 76.5
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,686
  • Sep 27, 2011 11:58am Sep 27, 2011 11:58am
Quoting FXMindset
The % of Breaking Upside Tomorrow may be higher if today we close above 76.5

What is the percentage and how do you calculate that percentage? If we close below 76.50 is there only a 25% chance of a break up or a 33.3% chance or a 40% chance......and if we close above 76.50 do we have a 60% chance of breaking up or maybe 75% chance........

So basically I would like to know how do you calculate the percentage chance of breaking up.

Thank you in advance for your time.

Faller.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #27,687
  • Sep 27, 2011 12:11pm Sep 27, 2011 12:11pm
Quoting Faller
What is the percentage and how do you calculate that percentage? If we close below 76.50 is there only a 25% chance of a break up or a 33.3% chance or a 40% chance......and if we close above 76.50 do we have a 60% chance of breaking up or maybe 75% chance........

So basically I would like to know how do you calculate the percentage chance of breaking up.

Thank you in advance for your time.

Faller.
The % May Be Higher,Please read again.If you ask me the number I dont know Expert ?

If u ask me again ? I dont know,I just share my chart here,where we are heading ? I'm only can said north and if you ask me the level,again..I'm really Dont know
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,688
  • Sep 27, 2011 12:14pm Sep 27, 2011 12:14pm
Quoting FXMindset
The % May Be Higher,Please read again.If you ask me the number I dont know Expert ?

If u ask me again ? I dont know,I just share my chart here,where we are heading ? I'm only can said north and if you ask me the level,again..I'm really Dont know

If you don't have a number that is fine - then don't say the percentage is higher for tomorrow if we close above 76.50 - because if you don't have a number that means the number is zero......and a zero percent chance is neither higher or lower.....it is zero. Thought you had something more to offer.........
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #27,689
  • Sep 27, 2011 12:16pm Sep 27, 2011 12:16pm
Quoting Faller
If you don't have a number that is fine - then don't say the percentage is higher for tomorrow if we close above 76.50 - because if you don't have a number that means the number is zero......and a zero percent chance is neither higher or lower.....it is zero. Thought you had something more to offer.........
Its wrong me to said higher ?? Come On Bro,Did i Offend you just because am said you are "Great analysis" ?? you better be careful with karma bro.I Mean it

and my advise for you : Stop being sensitive,learn how to control your emotion and stop being pro,your time not coming yet
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,690
  • Sep 27, 2011 12:38pm Sep 27, 2011 12:38pm
Checked my material again but nothing aside from what you know. Daily triangle and weekly spinning top or Koma candle suggesting indecision here. No trade for me here until a move..

Regards

Quoting USD-Bear
it keeps collecting bars within bars on daily, anybody knows what it means within TA?

Attachment
  • #27,691
  • Sep 27, 2011 12:43pm Sep 27, 2011 12:43pm
Quoting Chillypiper
Checked my material again but nothing aside from what you know. Daily triangle and weekly spinning top or Koma candle suggesting indecision here. No trade for me here until a move..

Regards
thanks for looking Chillypiper
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,692
  • Sep 27, 2011 1:20pm Sep 27, 2011 1:20pm
It is very clear that the markets are influenced by rumors increasing of possible intervention, besides Euro/Usd powering & UsdChf weakening is adding to the overall picture since the dollar & yen are weakening together with Euro & Chf powering.

Money invested or put in the yen(buying) are turning into the Chf as safe haven.

Good pair to trade is Euro/Chf because Usd/Chf dragging it down with it but on the other hand it is recovering fast from time to time affected by a strong Euro.
  • #27,693
  • Sep 27, 2011 1:26pm Sep 27, 2011 1:26pm
Quoting USD-Bear
it keeps collecting bars within bars on daily, anybody knows what it means within TA?

Attachment
Yes. It means the spring is getting tighter when price action is compressed pregressively. I believe today is the breakout. Uhh... I think I´ve said that before ...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,694
  • Sep 27, 2011 1:29pm Sep 27, 2011 1:29pm
Quoting Alorente
Yes. It means the spring is getting tighter when price action is compressed pregressively. I believe today is the breakout. Uhh... I think I´ve said that before ...
keep fingers crossed for you
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,695
  • Sep 27, 2011 1:40pm Sep 27, 2011 1:40pm
Quoting Alorente
Yes. It means the spring is getting tighter when price action is compressed pregressively. I believe today is the breakout. Uhh... I think I´ve said that before ...
I'm still hold my long sir @ 76.20 and will be more relieve if we break the range of the bar and until now the daily currently moves higher than previously 3 stick of bar which its good news for long I think,But we dont know until today close

Btw Mr.Alorente Is a Nice Guy and have several chat with him,He's indeed successful entrepreneur
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,696
  • Sep 27, 2011 1:54pm Sep 27, 2011 1:54pm
I'm still all in. I still don't believe this is going higher, which could mean ... hahaha ))
  • #27,697
  • Sep 27, 2011 3:12pm Sep 27, 2011 3:12pm
Quoting freiburg
I'm still all in. I still don't believe this is going higher, which could mean ... hahaha ))
We are fighting with the 200 SMA now (H4 chart). We are a bit above it but it´s not final yet. If we hold above the 200, we should be on our way to 80 in the next few days.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,698
  • Sep 27, 2011 6:42pm Sep 27, 2011 6:42pm
Usd/Jpy Today retracement is at 76.55/65(buy), break is toward 76.25/30(Buy), on the upside a base above 76.85 is toward first target 77.15/20, 2nd 77.30/35 & 3rd at 77.70/75 with open TP for the possibility of intervention
  • #27,699
  • Sep 27, 2011 6:57pm Sep 27, 2011 6:57pm
Quoting MoneMaker
Usd/Jpy Today retracement is at 76.55/65(buy), break is toward 76.25/30(Buy), on the upside a base above 76.85 is toward first target 77.15/20, 2nd 77.30/35 & 3rd at 77.70/75 with open TP for the possibility of intervention
Would you kindly share your analysis that leads you to arrive at these numbers please? It's very tiring to see the same old shit from you after you have already been banned from Forex Factory just last week.

Time to put up or........
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,700
  • Sep 27, 2011 7:21pm Sep 27, 2011 7:21pm
Good Daily candle with breach of triange and entry at retest of 1hr suppy zone with good R:R

Long 76.68
SL 75.74
TP 77.70/79.30 and the moon
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