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Trading Made Simple

  • #12,041
  • Sep 27, 2011 9:14am Sep 27, 2011 9:14am
Quoting 33drifter
Its really hard to answer that question, so many variables, assuming your trading major crosses, i would say the average SL is around 40 pips, so working on a minimum r;r of 1:1 i would say 40 pips per trade is good. whether or not you get a good trade everyday is another question.
I aim for anything from 30-50 pips, only trade euro and trade 2 Full lots trading 1 hr, using 15min for entry. always use 100pip stop, if this gets hit then its game over for the day.
  • #12,042
  • Sep 27, 2011 9:19am Sep 27, 2011 9:19am
i cant remember who posted this link, but thanks, its the most useful tool I have come across for position sizing. highly recommend it.

http://www.earnforex.com/position-size-calculator
  • #12,043
  • Sep 27, 2011 9:20am Sep 27, 2011 9:20am
Quoting fufighter
i got the same problem. With lower 4H it's impossible for me to make profit. 4H is 30% sucess i didnt try daily yet. I think headfakes are the big problem for me. Wonder how other can spot them and know not to trade thoses
Yeah, same results here on the 4H... Just to erratic for me. The Daily has netted me a 10% return so far this month and although I had a bit higher expectations I won't complain.
When I trade the daily I use the original rules by Big E and use the previous day high/low as my SL. TP will be the corresponding amount of pips so I aim for 1:1 R&R everytime. I don't know how the others are doing with 1h and 4h, but in the lack of any kind of filter of sorts, well, they ain't my cup of tea so to speak. Any input on this guys?

Good to see you on board Eelfranz by the way and thanks again for this system!
  • #12,044
  • Sep 27, 2011 9:31am Sep 27, 2011 9:31am
Keep a watch on Eur/Gbp, been consolidating for a while now on 1hr.
  • #12,045
  • Sep 27, 2011 9:32am Sep 27, 2011 9:32am
Quoting Favorite
I agree. When I started refining my TMS-trading in May, I was trading live. I was trading my previous system with the normal lot size and at the same time I was trading TMS with 0.01 or 0.02 lots. After 40 TMS trades I started trading TMS with a normal size lot.
yeah thats the best way, i've now gone from trading 0.50 lots to 2 or 3 full lots using TMS, just trading Euro, seems to be working for me at the mo
  • #12,046
  • Sep 27, 2011 9:35am Sep 27, 2011 9:35am
Quoting eelfranz
It's time for the arguing to quit. I'm .........
Hi Big E, Glad to see you around for all of us who have joined recently, (even if it is to tell us all off ) . Thanks for the system, just got to master it now.
  • #12,047
  • Sep 27, 2011 9:53am Sep 27, 2011 9:53am
Quoting stinger007
I aim for anything from 30-50 pips, only trade euro and trade 2 Full lots trading 1 hr, using 15min for entry. always use 100pip stop, if this gets hit then its game over for the day.
If your going to use a 100 pip stop you should be aiming 100 pips TP every time. some times you'll exit manually for less pips and thats ok but over time you'll loose out only taking 30 - 50 pips. if you have 3 losing trades in a row (which will happen, sometimes you might have 5 or more) your down 300 pips, now you need 6 - 10 good trades in a row just to break even.

your better off having a 50 pip stop and not taking the trades where the last swing is bigger than your stop.
  • #12,048
  • Sep 27, 2011 10:08am Sep 27, 2011 10:08am
Phx62
Quote
Attached is a chart with five trades taken today (on E/U), all winners, based on Big E's simple TDI system. I usually trade the H1 charts and only take trades during the London session but because I was off work today, I decided to try the M15 charts again (from the Craig Harris thread days) and refine my entry/exit skills. I take all trades per the original method developed by Big E as refined into my own trading plan.

stinger007
Quote
yeah thats the best way, i've now gone from trading 0.50 lots to 2 or 3 full lots using TMS, just trading Euro, seems to be working for me at the moment

Traders . . .

Only one pair and one time frame can be enough for some great profits. Two great lessons here in keeping it simple. Well done!
  • #12,049
  • Sep 27, 2011 10:12am Sep 27, 2011 10:12am
Quoting eelfranz
It's time for the arguing to quit. I'm getting emails... people are tired of it... SO STOP ! ..... OR YOU WILL BE ELIMINATED... YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE.

iT'S MY PROGAM, SIMPLE RULES, SIMPLE PIPS... if your not happy here... please start your own forum... Big E
Glad u back, why keep quiet so long? we miss u here.

Post us more example chart BigE! i got many question to ask you about the methode. I like to read u describe the charge why we should or shouldnt get in.
  • #12,050
  • Sep 27, 2011 10:20am Sep 27, 2011 10:20am
long on E/U and G/U get somewhere around +70 pips and get out now. I want to go long on 4H for this two pair but 15M and 1H seem like going down at the moment...maybe i'll wait for bounce on 1H to get in again after market continue to upside.

How's everyone else doing?
  • #12,051
  • Sep 27, 2011 10:34am Sep 27, 2011 10:34am
Quoting dcginc
Phx62

stinger007

Traders . . .

Only one pair and one time frame can be enough for some great profits. Two great lessons here in keeping it simple. Well done!

I feel i have to heed this and change what I'm doing. This is because I have 8+ charts open diligently looking at multiple time frames across two screens and despite sitting here all day i seem to be constantly missing opportunities that seem so obvious after the event.

Keeping frustration at bay at the moment which is hard but striving to get better
  • #12,052
  • Sep 27, 2011 11:59am Sep 27, 2011 11:59am
Quoting gamekeeper
I feel i have to heed this and change what I'm doing. This is because I have 8+ charts open diligently looking at multiple time frames across two screens and despite sitting here all day i seem to be constantly missing opportunities that seem so obvious after the event.

Keeping frustration at bay at the moment which is hard but striving to get better
Have you clearly defined your Trading Strategy within your Trading Plan?

A Trading Strategy is a predefined set of rules for making trading decisions.

A Trading Strategy is governed by a set of rules that do not deviate.

Emotional bias is eliminated because the systems operate within the parameters known by the trader. The parameters can be trusted based on historical analysis (backtesting) and real world market studies (forward testing), so that the trader can have confidence in the strategy and its operating characteristics.

Manual trading requires a great deal of skill and discipline. It is tempting for the trader to deviate from the strategy, which usually reduces its performance.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #12,053
  • Sep 27, 2011 12:58pm Sep 27, 2011 12:58pm
Mark Douglas’ 5 fundamental truths:
* Anything can happen
* You can make money without knowing what is going to happen next
* There is a random distribution of wins and losses that define an edge
* An edge is just the greater probability of one thing happening over an other
* Every moment in the market is unique

As Mark Douglas says: You need to ‘change your thinking’. The goal is to reach a ‘care-free state of mind’. When a pattern presents itself, don’t think. There’s nothing to think about. Take the trade because you have an edge. Then odds, probability and your risk control mechanisms will take care of everything. In the end, the key is to learn more about yourself. The most important lesson though is the importance of viewing every single trade as being part of a series of trades. Something that he talks about extensively in his book ‘Trading in the Zone’

There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. what you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. when you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like ‘right’ and ‘wrong’ or ‘win’ and ‘lose’ no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities. - Mark Douglas: ‘Trading in the Zone’

I know it may sound strange to many readers, but there is an inverse relationship between analysis and trading results. More analysis or being able to make distinctions in the market’s behavior will not produce better trading results. There are many traders who find themselves caught in this exasperating loop, thinking that more or better analysis is going to give them the confidence they need to do what needs to be done to achieve success. It’s what I call a trading paradox that most traders find difficult, if not impossible to reconcile, until they realize you can’t use analysis to overcome fear of being wrong or losing money. It just doesn’t work!” – Mark Douglas

If you really believe in an uncertain outcome, then you also have to expect that virtually anything can happen. Otherwise, the moment you let your mind hold onto the notion that you know, you stop taking all of the unknown variables into consideration. Your mind won’t let you have it both ways. If you believe you know something, the moment is no longer unique. – Mark Douglas

To whatever degree you haven’t accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully. – Mark Douglas
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #12,054
  • Sep 27, 2011 1:58pm Sep 27, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting eelfranz
It's time for the arguing to quit. ... Big E
Welcome back! And thank you. I had tried to quit following for a while because of all the bickering, but couldn't stay away. This really is a great group & great method. Once I get over a few "peksy trader development" hurdles, I think I can do this. Hope you're feeling well & stay that way.
My favorite crochet hook is size J. It's a J-Hook!
  • #12,055
  • Sep 27, 2011 2:24pm Sep 27, 2011 2:24pm
Quoting 33drifter
If your going to use a 100 pip stop you should be aiming 100 pips TP every time. some times you'll exit manually for less pips and thats ok but over time you'll loose out only taking 30 - 50 pips. if you have 3 losing trades in a row (which will happen, sometimes you might have 5 or more) your down 300 pips, now you need 6 - 10 good trades in a row just to break even.

you are better off having a 50 pip stop and not taking the trades where the last swing is bigger than your stop.

Interesting to see the discussion ongoing on SL, etc.

My approach is to base SL on a combination of ATR and swing H/L.

One size fits all approach won't be effective and will either get you stopped out excessively or will put too much at risk. Also this will prove difficult to justify on risk/reward and money management calculations.

TP has the same arguments and will depend on ranging or trending markets.
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #12,056
  • Sep 27, 2011 3:34pm Sep 27, 2011 3:34pm
Quoting eelfranz
It's time for the arguing to quit. I'm getting emails... people are tired of it... SO STOP ! ..... OR YOU WILL BE ELIMINATED... YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE.

iT'S MY PROGAM, SIMPLE RULES, SIMPLE PIPS... if your not happy here... please start your own forum... Big E
AMEN TO THAT Big E

Short all 3 amigos from the 1 hr charts as marked by the arrows. I know this is not the best time to trade but nice crosses on all 3. G/U 2 candles ago and E/U and A/U on the most recent
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1hr gbp.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1hr eur.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1hr aus.gif Size: 18 KB
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #12,057
  • Sep 27, 2011 4:16pm Sep 27, 2011 4:16pm
Quoting NZ Chris
AMEN TO THAT Big E

Short all 3 amigos from the 1 hr charts as marked by the arrows. I know this is not the best time to trade but nice crosses on all 3. G/U 2 candles ago and E/U and A/U on the most recent
not the best time to enter the market.....but that's just my opinion, good luck in trade and inform how it went!
  • #12,058
  • Sep 27, 2011 4:32pm Sep 27, 2011 4:32pm
hi there can anyone tell me the indi TDI on the first page is valid or there is an updated one on here and what are the settings thnx
  • #12,059
  • Sep 27, 2011 5:51pm Sep 27, 2011 5:51pm
I've tried to put Eelfranz's advice to practice by doing a couple of trades on the H1 between 8am and 5pm (GMT+1). I've taken three trades in total.

The quote below is from Eelfranz's post dated June 5th (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99#post4666699).

Screenshots contain the following:
- Top left EUR/USD 4H HA candles and news for the day.
- Down left EUR/USD 5M candles.
- Right EUR/USD 1H HA candles, TDI and Stochs. The chart itself also shows high (green line), low (red line) and open (yellow).

Next, I'll analyze each pre trade situation using Eelfranz's guidelines.
No doubt I've made mistakes in my analysis. Still I'm hoping that may be helpful to others as well as myself.

Trade 1 Screen 1 (8am):

  1. All time frames shown appear to indicate an uptrend. I'm anticipating a return to the previous high.
  2. The situation however looks weak.
  3. Next hundred (1.3600) is 50 pips away.
  4. 1H shows 3 up candles on last reversal.
  5. Situation on 4H looks like consolidation. Not on 1H though.
  6. Candles on both 4H and 1H are small.
  7. News (EUR) at 8am, impact medium.
  8. TDI looks to be between 2 and 4!
  9. Stochs pointing down!


I think I should've left this one alone. However for the sake of fun and "the heck with it it's demo" I took the trade anyway (SL 40).
The disastrous result is shown in Screen 3 on the 5M chart. I manually closed the trade for -10.

Trade 2 Screen 3 (10am)

  1. A downtrend appears to form (except on 4H). Previous low is about 30 pips away.
  2. This time the situation looks somewhat stronger when looking at the PA on 5M and 1H. The 4H is still in up mode though.
  3. Dangerously close to hundred level (1.3500), however PA spiked straight through it.
  4. Last reversal down was UNO candle..
  5. 4H definitely in consolidation, but 1H looks lively.
  6. Large candles.
  7. There's news (EUR) at 10am, impact medium.
  8. TDI has 4-6 angle.
  9. Stochs pointing down.


A short would be countertrend (4H = up). Therefore a quick in and out with the wheelbarrow was the only option . SL of 40 pips. Breakeven was set at +20 in the event +30 would be reached. Any more would be trailed.
Screen 4 shows I've gotten stopped out at breakeven (+20). The 5M chart shows the PA between entry and stop.

Trade 3 Screen 7 (2pm)

  1. Just noticed when typing this: THIRD up candle on 1H close to previous high. No entry by the rules..
  2. Situation looks strong.
  3. Hmm.. Close to hundred (1.3600) level, but second candle pierced through it.
  4. Last reversal up was only two candles..
  5. No consolidation.
  6. Large candles.
  7. Medium impact news at 3pm and high impact USD news at 4pm!
  8. 12 - 2 TDI angle.
  9. Stochs pointing up.
  10. Trading with the trend.


All things considered, I thought this might become a profitable trade.
I went long (SL 40). Breakeven set to +20 when +30 was reached.
Screen 10 shows a plus of nearly 50 pips. I manually closed the trade, since it was nearly 5pm. Stock markets often grind to a stop at that time.


Quote
Remember when your looking at PA... it loves to return to previous hi or lo levels... check out a few charts.

Remember to always consider your forex basics when thinking about entering a trade...

Does it look week or strong...

How close are we to previous hi's or lo's...

Are we close to 100 levels...

How many candles was the last reversal...

Are we in consolidation...

Are we dealing with little candles...

When is news coming...

12-2 & 4-6 angle?

Should take you a split second to determine these things...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Financial independence is what I live for
  • #12,060
  • Sep 27, 2011 5:55pm Sep 27, 2011 5:55pm
Quoting Spacetec
hi there can anyone tell me the indi TDI on the first page is valid or there is an updated one on here and what are the settings thnx
its still valid...but there are other ones check out xaphods threads. ust do a search.
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