USD/JPY Discussion

Thats The Way You are
And Yo,I'm Not Bruno Mars ~

Little New Zealand Girl

a few months old but makes very good points

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2458...of-all-bubbles

Also, if you Google Yen and bubble, you see lots of expert talk by clever businesspeople/professors/economists of this going back several years.

By analogy, prior to 2000, people also talked about NASDAQ bubble. They were all wrong, until, one day, they were all very right. Unfortunately they lost money because they called it too soon :-)

Don't you all think this Yen strength is now looooooooong in the tooth.

Is this a going to be a smooth reversal, picking up speed, or is there going to be a final blow-off top. Nobody knows. But the time is certainly more ripe than it was last year, or the five years ago.

Good link freiburg with good analysis inside by the writer.

Yes, yen pairs are hold with suspicious movements as if the BOJ is playing with those pairs powering then weakening to certain levels.
I remember the same situation with the Chf pairs collapsing to historic lows and nobody expected the SNB to perform such powerful action by intervening heavily
then SNB entered and set a low limit for Euro/Chf at 1.2000, the same can happen with yen pairs but not expected by BOJ to set a low limit for Usd/Jpy,
"to not upset their beloved USA"
But looking at the big time frames and on the longrun, till when the current situation be present without action with big move to the upside?!
Even if we do not talk about intervention, sometime soon those pairs must boost to the above which would be a normal movement if BOJ didn't intervene. Because lets look at all pairs at past or currently after hitting their lows afterward you'll find them 1000s of pips above sometimes in no time or others might take sometime but the result is the same.
Look where Gbp/Chf was in very few months and now where it is 3500 pips above lows.
So we are currently talking about most possible bottom prices for yen pairs.
Next movement is upward as a simple normal reaction

I can said that BOJ Dont need to take any action for weaken the Yen But The USD Might be strenght from now and future,Personally I am more believe the chart/market respond rather than any fundamental insight.The Chart and Market almost reach their bottom of falling wedge and Its Signal us another New Trend Should Be Changing Soon

All Things related one each other,At Forex We have Several Top Products,There are :
- USD
- EUR
- Poundsterling
- JPY Yen
- Aussie
- Swiss CHF
- and Many Many More

Each thing In This Earth always related with others Like Water and Fire,Man and Women,Good and Bad and once there's no demand with Europe or Pounds Currency then people will seek another products and Personaly I Think Its USD, and The monthly chart tells me Its USD Perform Time now after suffered several years of down. (Not Everything is This World Will last Longer,There is a time when we are Up and Down,Profits and Loss)

Both EU & GU Would Be sell and USD Might be massively Bought

The Intervention Money From BOJ Could Weaken The Yen Straightly but IMO not effectively,At least it takes 6-9 Month to takes the effect...Its like when we plant potatoes or apples,We wont reap the benefits directly.But It Takes Times,Everything Needs Proccess,As Long We keep Monitor the chart,the progress and always trade with stoploss and apply some longterm strategy with minimum risk I am believe all of you will reap the benefits soon

you need to keep the right mindset by killing some beast within ourself thats called greedy,ego,speculation,lazy,etc

I Might Be Wrong and I Wont always dare to said am correct,Just trade with our rules and stick with it.

Attached is the Monthly Chart of UJ (The Main/GrandFather of all JPY Cross)

Thats I called The "Laws of Chart"

In this article, also from 2010, the author explains who is buying the Yen. Basically Japanese banks themselves and China ... China with two possible purposes -- (1) economic war on Japan and/or (2) diversification away from USD

Potential Japanese battle response also mentioned.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pricking-bubble-yen

Good Morning,
I posted these comments in a news thread but I think they are also worth sharing here too.
IMHO more pressure/talk/indications outside of the official tough talk rhetoric are beginning to paint the picture of an intervention.

http://7economy.com/archives/17175
JP Morgan emails, not sure if they are internal, are suggesting strong possibility of intervention between 9/28 - 9/30 due in large part to the economic calendar and what is expiring during that time period.
Also, the head of the Nikkei is putting pressure on the BoJ to PEG or set a floor on the USD/JPY.

This news might be right about possible soon intervention, but what is nearly sure is there would not be a set floor or low limit for Usd/Jpy pair which differs from Euro/Chf because as I mentioned before BOJ "would not upset the USA"
, even if a green light is given by the latter but for big or huge intervention not for set low limit that can't exist for yen pairs.
Certainly, would be Great if BOJ set low limit for Usd/Jpy as SNB for Euro/Chf so we'll all keep buying at near that level and gaining fast money with less effort..haliluya

Yen intervention threat is, imo, overdone, Japanese authorities seem resigned to deal with the strong currency through indirect steps rather than combating it directly.

or that is what they would like you (us) to think. ...

Look I can't review my sources, but I received word from a friend when the BOJ gives the code phrase via CNBC " Domo arigato mr roboto " sell yen post haste...this is not the code word for intervention, just for some insiders to make a few bucks...

I'm not feeling hopeful this bounce will stick....usually a contrarian signal (meaning it will stick).

The Japanese public are betting the Yen will drop:

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/...na013000c.html

I love the way the article says the "experts" have stepped in to "warn" the public etc. etc.

There's another article out there saying that "Mrs. Wanatabe" (i.e. the Japanese housewife who buys dollars) will force the hand of BOJ if the Yen appreciates, and another article where Nissan just today is begging BOJ to intervene ... and finally, that retail investors in Japan make up 15% of market and thus can cause moves.

Often public is wrong, but not always. We've had years to burn out the long USD/JPYs, but there are always new ones to step in with fresh motivation.

by the way, I live in Switzerland, and just before the Swiss bank intervened, a lot of people I know (i.e. retail) were buying Euros and selling their Francs. In the short timeframe, some did well, and some did not, as it always comes down to timing and exposure. But maybe the Japanese public will do the job which BOJ does not want to do (yet). Interesting dynamic!

frankly little disappointed about todays move.
After days of risk-on trading, today on all assets it's a risk-off day eg no demand for safe-haven, knowing that and looking at USD's huge recovery in last month, one would expect a few hundred pips up on UJ so agree with not feeling hopeful

I'm telling, when you feel like this, and you really believe this (like I do), this is exactly when it does the opposite. We are also part of the "mass psychology" which the big bank / elites computers have figured out.

It is a bizarre world.

Don't let me influence you, as I am just guessing!

lol freiburg, I know the traders psycho, but realizing you could be a contrarian could mean you are not a good contrarian

I know exactly what you mean. This is a twisted game. I am just learning. Every day I am learning. When I'm successful, I'll let you know :-))

At this moment I am up significantly (avg price 76.37 with lots of leverage) ... but I don't know if I should sell. Grabbing the profit now and missing out on a move higher, or believing my (usually wrong) belief that this will go down.

aaaaaaaaaaaaargh