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The XXX Alure Of The Trading Reality

  • #21
  • Sep 24, 2011 4:41am Sep 24, 2011 4:41am
Quoting egadsforex
As an addendum..... someone had a 300k per year job. Since they had that, they took a 10k monthly mortgage.

The gamble was that the job would last. It didn't.

Get it ??
you are gambling , if you dont know what you are doing!
  • #22
  • Sep 24, 2011 4:43am Sep 24, 2011 4:43am
Quoting egadsforex
There are poker players who are extremely successful. If professional poker players are "gamblers" then it would seem erroneous to say that "too many are traders gamblers".

Part of this reasoning stems from the fact that if you are unwilling to "gamble" i.e. put your money at risk, then you have NO chance to win.

Is that a reasonable "reasoning".
Very reasonable. I just ment that like successful poker players, successful retail traders are the minority. To me, gambling is risking money on something with a known negative expectancy. Like trading without an edge or thinking there's a 50/50 chance of winning.
  • #23
  • Sep 24, 2011 5:08am Sep 24, 2011 5:08am
Quoting EmeraldEyes
Very reasonable. I just ment that like successful poker players, successful retail traders are the minority. To me, gambling is risking money on something with a known negative expectancy. Like trading without an edge or thinking there's a 50/50 chance of winning.
I really kind of understood that. I'm the "opposing view" if you will. If for no other reason than the fact that there are ALWAYS two sides and we should all look at both sides (I believe).

Successful retail traders don't "have" to be in the minority. There is no law that says it shall be so.

And if you believe that gambling is "risking money on something with a known negative expectancy" then you MUST agree that trading is gambling. Trading has a "known negative expectancy".... the majority of traders don't make money.

So trading is gambling is real estate investing is business investing is stock investing, etc.

You can concern yourself to eternity about "definitions" or you can get on with the "game" and make some money for yourself.

You WILL make mistakes. You CAN start over. No matter what you do, it's a gamble. Even that cushy job that you counted on to pay the mortgage can disappear.

lie ???
  • #24
  • Sep 24, 2011 8:00pm Sep 24, 2011 8:00pm
Quoting egadsforex
Successful retail traders don't "have" to be in the minority. There is no law that says it shall be so.
True true but like a poker game there are more losers than winners, and the winners having a very uneven distribution of wealth.

I wouldn't call my mortgage gambling on my end, but for the bank's instead. They gave me a limit & APR based on factors of my credit history to compensate for their exposure. I believe we're merging the discussion between every day 'risks' and 'gambling'.
  • #25
  • Sep 24, 2011 8:29pm Sep 24, 2011 8:29pm
long term the following wont be a business

book stores
newspapers
dvd's
blockbuster
dialup internet

etc etc

my point is one needs to learn to adapt, see whats new, if you can adapt you can swim with the ever changing waves

as far as the amount of people that lose in forex, well most people fail at everything business wise, why should forex be different?
  • #26
  • Sep 27, 2011 1:36am Sep 27, 2011 1:36am
Quoting egadsforex
I don't know why but somehow this (the following) seems significant to trading. If anyone can point out the significance to me it would be appreciated. If I'm just having a "duh" moment, that's not unusual.

"Gamers Crack Code That Could Lead to New AIDS Treatments"

http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets...um_fold-it.jpg"Scientists spent a decade trying—and failing—to map the structure of an enzyme that could help solve a crucial part of the AIDS puzzle. It...

asking the right question and exposing it to a wide range of efforts trumps individual lack of creativity.

had the wrong question been asked, the wrong answers would have followed.... hence the typical forum nonsense.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #27
  • Sep 27, 2011 9:27am Sep 27, 2011 9:27am
Quoting CrucialPoint

  1. The hardest part to accept is the fact that you can't do this in 5 years.
  2. The hardest part to accept is the fact that you can't do this in 10 years
  3. The hardest part to accept is the fact that you can't do this in 20 years or more.

Heck, a lot of people have been driving for 5, 10, 20 years and they're nowhere close to being a formula one driver. Without the proper education and training, you ain't going nowhere... even with 20 years of experience

I studied trading intensively for three months (in 2004) without placing a single trade. I then started trading a live account and have been profitable year-on-year ever since.

There isn't any arbitary time element to learning to trade - and perhaps it is something that cannot be "learnt" at all. Most people have a built-in desire to gamble that prevents them from correctly implementing a successful long term strategy... jut go to a casino and see them around the wheel. You can trade forex and you can gamble on forex, the key is to be able to understand the difference.
  • #28
  • Oct 2, 2011 12:58am Oct 2, 2011 12:58am
If trading (FX or otherwise) is gambling, then you should think and act like a casino operator. You should operate like the house and not the client. You should treat it like a business with clear business model, exit clauses performance target, and business-like ruthlessness in cutting loss fast any losing trade.

For people starting in trading (probably anything less than 5 years full-time trading experience), early stage losing is imho good and beneficial. Provided that you can survive the losing drawdown, these losses actually give you a good grounding in the nature of risk and risk management that will serve you well for the rest of your trading career. Treat losses as school fee in the trading school of knocks and therefore, you must learnt your lesson and not to repeat same mistake again.

The greater danger would be those new trader who are successful in the early stage of their trading career, either through good luck or they are naturally gifted to trade. The more successful they are, the more dangerous it would be because they may not have a good grounding on risk. With a positive (high or low is immaterial as long as it is positive) probability that large significant losses drawdown may occur at some points in their trading career, the damage may be massive on them because it is 'unexpected'. The damage is massive not least on the financial (which we can build up again painfully) but on the psychology. The damage on the psychology may be irreversible for some.

Parallel to the saying, "Give the man a fish and he would be feed for a day, give the man a fishing rod and he would be feed for a lifetime", I say "Give a trader the early success and he could potentially be psychologically damaged irreversibly later, but give a trader nasty losses in early stage and if he still presses on, he is likely to survive to make his profit for the rest of his trading career."

That said, we should not be actively seeking losing trades in the early stage of our trading career but to remain humble and grounded when we reap in the profit knowing that market is the one in control of our profit, not us.
  • #29
  • Oct 2, 2011 2:01am Oct 2, 2011 2:01am
Quoting Hareii
If trading (FX or otherwise) is gambling, then you should think and act like a casino operator. You should operate like the house and not the client. You should treat it like a business with clear business model, exit clauses performance target, and business-like ruthlessness in cutting loss fast any losing trade.

For people starting in trading (probably anything less than 5 years full-time trading experience), early stage losing is imho good and beneficial. Provided that you can survive the losing drawdown, these losses actually give you a...
great post!
  • #30
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:57pm Nov 24, 2011 4:57pm
Reading these comments you can tell who's read "Trading & Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners" and who hasn't. (if not read it at least understand the terminology).
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #31
  • Last Post: Nov 26, 2011 3:47pm Nov 26, 2011 3:47pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
Reading these comments you can tell who's read "Trading & Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners" and who hasn't. (if not read it at least understand the terminology).
Thanks for the tip LVG. As a relative newbie this is an excellent reference tool and a must read. Very informative.
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