USD/JPY Discussion

I´m being conservative. What I really think is going to happen is a complete reversal of the move down from 124 since 2007.

It happened before. From 1991 to 1995, USD/JPY went from 142 to 79. By 1998, just three years later, USD/JPY not only reversed the move, it went to 147.67.

I believe this scenario will repeat itself in the next 18 months. There are many factors pointing to this, both fundamental and technical.

i would love that to happen, but what i don't get is all this disaster talk about us dollar being devalued. this is extremely distracting. )

i guess you don't think it is the end of the world for usa and could even regain footing. (hey, why not ... better usa than communist chinese running things)

i guess maybe you can tell me why you think a reversal is due in light of all the money printing, etc, etc.

It´s simple. A currency´s price simply reflects the policies of the politicians running the country of that currency. The US is getting ready for a Tsunami type change. The new wave of politicians in Washington abhorrs debt and sees a radical change in this philosophy as a new beginning for America. All they need is a leader that truly believes this message and they will be off and running. There is no other economy as flexible and adaptable to change as the US economy. Both Perry and Romney have already stated that they will not reappoint Bernanke. If the republicans win, the new chairman will probably be Richard Fisher of the Dallas Fed. An unabashed king dollar fan and inflation hawk. Believe me, all the forex markets need to do is get a whiff of a republican win in 2012 and the dollar will be as strong as it has ever been, if not more, because of the debasement of all other currencies owned by countries that will never be able to effectuate the fiscal and monetary changes that the US may soon embark on.

so your crystal ball points to a republican victory? and that predicates your argument for this reversal...well let's hope so.

i just dont see usa with the same caliber people (on average) as 20 years ago. more like unhealthy poorly educated masses. or do i have the wrong picture (i live in a rich country in europe - so not greece, haha)??

at the end, i think the currency reflects the strength and discipline of the people ... i just don't get that sense from usa right now.

Absolutely correct.
However, it amazes me that Obama is still so close in the polls.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...omney_vs_obama
I know it's early but look at what has happened to the US and his approval ratings.
Republicans are once again throwing out milk toast nominees.
I'm a Texan, a Republican and I would NEVER vote for Perry. Especially not after this mess.
http://transtexascorridor.blogspot.com/

Reagan was a great man and I'm sorry to say, probably the last great President of my generation. But that's what this country needs right now.

I lived in the US for 38 years. I live in Spain now, my country of origin. I still have a company in the US with 48 employees. It is true that the education level is not what it used to be, but the new immigrants are as hungry and ambitious as the ones that arrived from Europe at the beginning of the 20th century. The US employee is still the most productive worker in the world. The US needs to get back to its roots through a clear message from a truly American leader. Not borrowed ideas and concepts from Europe, etc. which will never fit the American ideology or way of life. In other words, America needs to become America again. I am confident this will happen. It is a people that does not quit. The tougher things get, the tougher they get. I truly believe that selling the dollar short in the next two years will land you in the poor house.

it is good to hear such a positive view. I am long the dollar here, but more from the "overbought" yen perspective, and expecting a small bounce / playing some BOJ event.

you have a much bigger view, much more pro america. I hope you are right ... i like the old america, and not this strange new america. I don't even like traveling there anymore, and just go there when my employer sends me there. (i am forced).

Also, don´t forget that in the 1970´s the US had the Carter mailaise. the Iran hostages, 10% inflation, 16% interest rates, long lines at gasoline stations because of the oil embargo, the worse economy since the depression. Everyone said then that it was the end of the American Empire. Then, along came Reagan and the rest is history. The economy boomed like never before and communism was licked in a few short years. Don´t ever underestimate America. The Germans and Japanese did so in the 40´s and they paid an enormous price for their mistake.

I agree. Let´s get back to USD/JPY. Good luck.

Japanese Official: Not Considering Swiss Approach

I missed the 60 pip climb in here because it didn't begin until after 2am my time! Never mind, I hope some of you guys got it.

Have a great weekend all

quote:
He said as long as deflation continues, upward pressure on the yen will be sustained.
unquote

unbelievable those guys, do they get payed for saying such nonsense?

I like you Alorente

True blue optimist...

Sadly Im more pessimistic about the state of affairs in this country

I got all this info off of some news wires... but it really is pretty eye opening... And I am not saying the US cant turn itself around. But we are walking, talking and acting like scared defeated sheep.

Unemployment has soared beyond anything seen since the great depression and major global financiers have shown global victory over the needs of the world's people driven by the same powers that created this crisis in the first place.

America has never been in worse shape no matter what area of life you examine.

I read somewhere that between December 2000 and December 2010, 38 percent of the manufacturing jobs in Ohio were lost, 42 percent of the manufacturing jobs in North Carolina were lost and 48 percent of the manufacturing jobs in Michigan were lost.

Manufacturing jobs have traditionally been high paying jobs that can support middle class families.

Back in 1970, 25 percent of all jobs in the United States were manufacturing jobs. Today, only 9 percent of the jobs in the United States are manufacturing jobs. Does this seem like people who are getting tougher with the times?

America is being de-industrialized at lightening speed and most Americans don't even understand what is happening due to the dumbing down of our educational systems.

Look, even if U.S. firms wanted to stay in the United States and try to compete, they face almost insurmountable obstacles....

*Many foreign nations deeply and directly subsidize national industries and the U.S. government lets them get away with it. That puts our industries at a vast disadvantage.

*The United States has the highest corporate tax rate in the world. That puts our corporations at a vast disadvantage.

*Many foreign nations do not require businesses to provide health care for their employees. That puts our businesses at a vast disadvantage.

*Many foreign nations impose very little regulation on businesses. That puts businesses in the United States at a vast disadvantage. In the U.S., we have some of the most restrictive regulations in the world.

The truth is that even the "next generation jobs" and the "green jobs" that politicians keep talking about are rapidly leaving the country.

For example, the third-largest producer of solar panels in the U
nited States, Evergreen Solar, is leaving America.

Evergreen is shutting down its factory in Massachusetts, laying off 800 American workers and moving production over to China.

The U.S. trade deficit with China in 2010 was 27 times larger than it was back in 1990.

Not only that, the United States now spends more than 4 dollars on goods and services from China for every one dollar that China spends on goods and services from the United States.

Do you remember when the United States was the dominant manufacturer of automobiles and trucks on the globe? Well, in 2010 the U.S. ran a trade deficit in automobiles, trucks and parts of$110 billion.

We are losing ground in almost every industry that you could name. Even the "jobs of tomorrow" are mostly being created overseas.

When is someone going to wake up America? If we are even losing "advanced technology" jobs, then what kind of jobs are going to be left?

In 2002, the United States had a trade deficit in "advanced technology products" of $16 billion with the rest of the world. In 2010, that number skyrocketed to $82 billion.

Needless to say, that is not a good trend.

Our politicians promised us that the "global economy" would mean more jobs and more prosperity for us.

Well, that was obviously a giant lie.

Today, if you gathered together all of the unemployed people in the United States, they would make up the 68th largest country in the world.



needless to say Ill be the guy on the opposite side of those Long UJ trades ur taking....

Could be wrong and I actually hope I am.... cuz Im flexible and Ill flip my sentiment faster than a New York diner flapjack if I see an INKLING of the America that I grew up with post WW2 and Post the 70's stagflation... sadly it will take some great men to lead the way and I for one dont see anyone like that stepping up to the plate.

America was sold out by big business greed driven by someone's dream that we could get a foot up in the global environment if we played a major role in developing it, which we did...China, India, and even Vietnam don't care how or who aided them in developing their nations as it is a selfish world.....now America lays in ruins...the only fix is another revolution and it needs to be violent as all the politicians and businessmen do is laugh as the public flounders with in fighting over voting for the next crook for Congress, Senate and President as they brand new movements racists...on and on it goes until we are all in soup lines for our daily meals as they eat well and keep selling out the American people....Mfer's
a bit of a rant

ROFL........yeah I laughed when I read that bit....I can't imagine where they dig up such rubbish from!!

Alright fellas, what's going on?! You ready to make some money!!! Okay let's start making some money! Oh, wait, it's the weekend. Haha

Yeah but the end product is only as good as the preparation.......or is that when painting?......hmmmm......back to my sandpaper and paint brush.......

Looks Valid

weekend prices

USD/JPY – Bias (W1): Bearish + Consolidation; Bias (Overall): Uncertain

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