USD/JPY Discussion

65??? maybe not... just like CHF, when it appreciated to a certain amount, SNB took intervention. BOJ might do the same thing...

why CHF can depreciate after SNB intervention but not Yen ??? why why why , people throw their money in Yen rather than Swiss ?

Possible we will see 74 tonight,prepare your position

Perhaps because of the fact that Snb doesnt talk buts acts ?

if EU keeps appreciating.

Today´s chart is more of the same. The RSI trendline is still strongly bullish.

As we know, bottoms are made when the last few longs finally throw in the towel out of despair and everybody moves to the short camp. From the sound of this thread, that´s what is happening right now. This sounds and feels like the bottom to me. We´ve been testing the 8/19 bottom and it has held. We´ve even double bottomed nicely yesterday and today. The indicators show bullish divergences all over the place. I think this is the moment. I´ve just increased my long position by 20%. Good luck guys.

lol, never thought me as counter-trend trader would be subject to these words which have could be mine
Just took a long @ 76.13 just because I was pretty sure I could put a stop fast to BE where it now is. As I will never short this pair I'm afraid Your longs won't succeed......

i believe this pair is most booring ever so far ,adding the bank holiday tonight is even worse ,and its end of the month so everything is possible with the price

Keep in mind it's a Japanese bank holiday today, so intervention today is a tad unlikely.

That said...I have a pending short at 76.37. We'll see if it makes it up there to fill me

Japan Repeats Yen Warnings

Comment Without Action only Makes thing become worse

Thanks Mr. Azumi

Especially the last remark is of importance. Seems like no intervention in the pipeline. Confidence in Euro will depend on solving it's debt crisis. With so many members, each with their own agenda and interests, it will not be a rapid process. But, why threathen with decisive action whilst at the same time they seem to suggest that they are not currently contemplating intervention because there is a real reason for JPY strength. I fail to see the logic.

Act or shut up ... credibility !


Japan Repeats Yen Warnings

 

1. Fin Min Azumi on the wires saying Japan will take decisive action against excessive yen rises.
2. Wants yen to be at appropriate levels reflecting the Japanese economy.
3. Yen rises will ease if confidence in euro is restored.

The first two comments are repeats. The third is new, and suggests they are not currently contemplating intervention because there is a real reason for JPY strength.

Well,I am Just notice this Candles

So previous YEN increases were for fake reasons? I would say decisive action means they are free to use intervention or not at their discretion.

The Cross Selling Coming again

Wow, no posts here for the last 8 hours? I was away taking care of some personal stuff otherwise I would have posted. Anyway, it was about 24 hours ago I had a long @ 76.76 on AUD/JPY that got stopped out for -7. Since then this pair dropped all the way down to 73.90! What a wild day, week and month this has been.

Yep.. Very exciting 40 pip range since then. Still waiting on some new of G20...Maybe a good time to sack some longs just in case I ma thinking to my self...I got stopped out also here for a few and have this pair on the radar....

Regards

Morning all (Tokyo Session)

Im not much of a chartist

Listen we have huge deflationary forces that up until recently were self reinforcing....These have only been controlled by record government
interventions with liquidity provisions, interest rate cuts, quantitative
easing, and fiscal stimulus. Now we have two enormous forces struggling
against each other 1) deflationary—the economy and the financial
system and 2) reflationary—stimulus of various types.

No one has any idea how these will play out, and its hard to balance
them.QE, probably the correct course for central
banks, is a difficult beast to control if market psychology turns quickly
or if the real economy improves faster than expected. Because well timed exit strategies are really hard to call, it is likely that they will
come too early or too late. Most likely they will stop them too late due to political factors. If you consider the responsibility and institutional setup of most central banks, most of their decision makers would argue that it would be a bigger mistake to cut stimulus too early rather than too late.

With all these scenarios playing out of a possible inflation scneario( too much stim), a deflationary scenario, some central banks becoming less independant scenario( look at Europe), I tend to opt for the protectionist scenario.
being that globally we are hinging on Chinas absurd growth rates( unsustainable in my view) for a world economic recovery the outlook is very bleak for the world NOT to enter a prolonged depressed state. This is where protectionism sets in. This would mean everyone finds out the debt problems are bigger than anyone suspected, growth is slower than expected, deleveraging sets in, depression ensues. Then the world is blatantly aware of the screwups politicians have made and those guys are caught with their pants down who all of a sudden have no choice but to launch horrible protectionist policies resulting in political populism and radiacalism. This is where Europe and the US are heading due to our outrageously large deficit problems( massive inflation due to over stimulation). Japan on the other hand has a prolonged deflationary situation as the BOJ has utilized several methods of controlling their debt and economy from getting out of hand by controlling liquidity by paying very low interest on excessive reserves. Controlling these forces are what policy makers in the US and Europe will need to deal with soon and IMHO the Japanese are already very adept at them because they have already been doing it longer and are familiar with tweaking their economic policies to keep inflationary and risk pressures under control. Our policy makers have proven inept in almost every way throughout this crisis.

As Protectionism sets in major players will want to hold the short end of sovereign bond markets since at this point currency wars ensue and countries devalue their currencies at a ferocious pace. Japan cannot fight the hot money that will pour into their bond markets from terrified US institutions and sovereign funds.


Granted this is only my analysis through what I feel is coming down the pipe..and yes it sounds bad

but hey... as a trader allwe can do is get ready for it and trade it right?


Till then... UJ at 65.... rock and roll

What a post dude! Tell it like it is....

You must admit there is a curtain anticipation to this need for a different policy. And with that , we may see a possable huge move here... like the swissy and the crap it pulled...

Anyway, I'm just a dog looking for a good meal...

Best Regards