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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,521
  • Edited 3:16am Sep 22, 2011 2:55am | Edited 3:16am
Quoting USD-Bear
added a long @ 76.45
ok I give up, closed both @ 76.47

I find it unbelievable that in latest circumstances with a roaring USD, all time lows in most Yen-pairs and a relative easy moment to support an upmove, they do nothing, nothing at all.
What now, I really have no idea, yes we can wait for 75 or 74 but why there and not 70, well keep on sidelines for now until picture is more clear.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,522
  • Sep 22, 2011 3:00am Sep 22, 2011 3:00am
Quoting SIgurs
Imo, stops have nothing to do with the lack of upside. The Jpy will keep on appreciating due to lack of bold action by Bof. All they do is express their concerns and stating that they are monitoring forex action very closely. At the moment the Usd/Jpy is not about economic numbers ... it's all about credibility. Markets have no fear of Bof, hence the new lows versus many pairs today. Confident that Usd will follow if nothing is being done.

With FED's move yesterday and European debt problems far from solved people will keep on moving to the one...
I agree with you up to a point.......BOJ can't draw a line in the sand to defend like SNB did.....even though they certainly have the money to do.....simple because by defending a line in the sand against the USD, they will make an enemy of USA because repeated interventions will raise the dollar.....and they won't be too keen to do that because the FED will be upset. SNB are defending against the Euro, not the greenback, so it's easier for them.

Having said that, there comes a time when they have to do something.....surely??
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,523
  • Sep 22, 2011 3:09am Sep 22, 2011 3:09am
Quoting realjumper
by defending a line in the sand against the USD, they will make an enemy of USA because repeated interventions will raise the dollar.....and they won't be too keen to do that because the FED will be upset.
- isn't the US upsetting the Western world by printing money continuously ?
- wasn't the world upset by the fact that US subprime is the main cause for the mess the Western world is in ?

In short, I see no reason whatsoever why the rest of the world has to walk on tiptoes towards the US whilst they themselves don't seem to care about what others think of their actions. They clearly want to inflate themselves out the mess, by all means go ahead. But isn't it the right of every sovereign country to react and take care of themselves ?

The Swiss got the message and reacted, rightfully so !
  • #27,524
  • Sep 22, 2011 3:21am Sep 22, 2011 3:21am
UJ has given me many pips recently in tbe box between 75.90 and 78.00. i tried to long it @76.34 with SL @ 75.70. i pray for no price below 76.00 . however ,if there is no power to go up , scaple my position ,AGAIN.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 28 KB
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #27,525
  • Sep 22, 2011 3:23am Sep 22, 2011 3:23am
Quoting SIgurs
- isn't the US upsetting the Western world by printing money continuously ?
- wasn't the world upset by the fact that US subprime is the main cause for the mess the Western world is in ?

In short, I see no reason whatsoever why the rest of the world has to walk on tiptoes towards the US whilst they themselves don't seem to care about what others think of their actions. They clearly want to inflate themselves out the mess, by all means go ahead. But isn't it the right of every sovereign country to react and take care of themselves ?

The Swiss got...
The Japanese are a different kettle of fish altogether. The most certainly won't do something that will upset uncle sam.....it's not in their culture to behave in that way. I'm pretty sure that USA is Japans number one trading partner, or if not, at least a very important one, and they simply will avoid pissing uncle sam off if at all possible.

Japan has the means to to what SNB is doing, easily. But if USA has told them that they will be pissed off if Japans action raises the USD (which it will), then they won't do it, unless they have no choice.

The Japanese culture is very different to the Western cultures, and they will approach this in a different way to what you or I might do in their position.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,526
  • Sep 22, 2011 3:24am Sep 22, 2011 3:24am
Quoting USD-Bear
ok I give up, closed both @ 76.47

I find it unbelievable that in latest circumstances with a roaring USD, all time lows in most Yen-pairs and a relative easy moment to support an upmove, they do nothing, nothing at all.
What now, I really have no idea, yes we can wait for 75 or 74 but why there and not 70, well keep on sidelines for now until picture is more clear.....
IMHO,longing UJ do not has much risk. because the SL zone is not too big. 40pips?
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #27,527
  • Sep 22, 2011 3:28am Sep 22, 2011 3:28am
Quoting USD-Bear
ok I give up, closed both @ 76.47

I find it unbelievable that in latest circumstances with a roaring USD, all time lows in most Yen-pairs and a relative easy moment to support an upmove, they do nothing, nothing at all.
What now, I really have no idea, yes we can wait for 75 or 74 but why there and not 70, well keep on sidelines for now until picture is more clear.....
They keep doing it don't they Bear?.......whenever there is a rally that just screams 'Now is a good time BOJ'......they let the chance go begging. It's amazing!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,528
  • Sep 22, 2011 3:29am Sep 22, 2011 3:29am
Quoting SIgurs
- isn't the US upsetting the Western world by printing money continuously ?
- wasn't the world upset by the fact that US subprime is the main cause for the mess the Western world is in ?

In short, I see no reason whatsoever why the rest of the world has to walk on tiptoes towards the US whilst they themselves don't seem to care about what others think of their actions. They clearly want to inflate themselves out the mess, by all means go ahead. But isn't it the right of every sovereign country to react and take care of themselves ?

The Swiss...
I think you may have missed the point. It's not that they don't want to upset the US out of respect. It's because upseting the US will come back to hurt them. They can't beat the FED in a race of devaluing currency. So they are trying to keep the sleeping giant asleep.
  • #27,529
  • Sep 22, 2011 3:36am Sep 22, 2011 3:36am
Quoting SIgurs
Imo, stops have nothing to do with the lack of upside. The Jpy will keep on appreciating due to lack of bold action by Bof. All they do is express their concerns and stating that they are monitoring forex action very closely. At the moment the Usd/Jpy is not about economic numbers ... it's all about credibility. Markets have no fear of Bof, hence the new lows versus many pairs today. Confident that Usd will follow if nothing is being done.

With FED's move yesterday and European debt problems far from solved people will keep on moving to the one and only big safe haven left: the Jpy !

The Chf is out of the picture, the Snb is playing the game magnificently. The Chf is even above the projected 1.20 level without intervention. The move can be contributed solely to the fact that markets know for sure that the Snb is not something to mess around with. These guys don't talk around the bush ... they act ! Credibility at its best.
Another thing, what's up with everybody talking about Japan's credibility? Credibility with who? With investors? HA!

Let's leave the whole credibility issue out of the conversation because it's irrelevant. Every time one of you says 'they have no credibility', you guys sound like a bunch of women crying because someone is pinching your nipples. By that I mean your longs are getting squeezed.
  • #27,530
  • Sep 22, 2011 3:37am Sep 22, 2011 3:37am
Quoting realjumper
They keep doing it don't they Bear?.......whenever there is a rally that just screams 'Now is a good time BOJ'......they let the chance go begging. It's amazing!!
lol, yes it is and again I fell for it, getting all excited over it leaving the pairs where the big and easy money can be earned like EU alone and letting a very nice profit in UJ almost blow completely away.
The pair was so friendly with me as scalper but no I had to see the bigger picture
Ah well back to EU again.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,531
  • Sep 22, 2011 3:47am Sep 22, 2011 3:47am
Quoting USD-Bear
lol, yes it is and again I fell for it, getting all excited over it leaving the pairs where the big and easy money can be earned like EU alone and letting a very nice profit in UJ almost blow completely away.
The pair was so friendly with me as scalper but no I had to see the bigger picture
Ah well back to EU again.....
As tempting as it may be to take a long position on this sometimes, I just refuse to do so any longer.....all I make sure I do is watch closely (lol) for the first few hours of Asian market, because if they are going to step in, that's when they'll do it.....probably.

From their recent round of remedies, they are going to invest lots of money to help people cope with the strong Yen.....which (to me) is like saying, 'don't hold your breath for intervention'.........but you never know.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,532
  • Sep 22, 2011 4:23am Sep 22, 2011 4:23am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Another thing, what's up with everybody talking about Japan's credibility? Credibility with who? With investors? HA!

Let's leave the whole credibility issue out of the conversation because it's irrelevant.
If indeed credibility is irrelevant;

- why is the Chf not appreciating ?
- why is no one calling their bluff ?
- why has there been no attempt to short above 1.20 ?
- why is Chf way higher than the line put in the sand by the Snb ?

Why is it that most people don't drive too fast ? Credibility/psychology ! Afraid to be caught by the police and knowing that sanctions may follow. Same principle applies to forex/markets in general, especially in todays environment.

Today's currency war is not solely based on numbers, it's psychology. So yes, credibility is indeed of the utmost importance.

Just my 2 cents !
  • #27,533
  • Sep 22, 2011 4:44am Sep 22, 2011 4:44am
I Close all my Long earlier when am see this,waiting next setup
Honestly,Now am 2+2=4 side,looking 74 to fill first

I am always believe the EJ Sell will give effect and the Monthly Chart of EJ targeting 93
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Uj Daily.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Monthly.png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ Monthly.png Size: 37 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,534
  • Sep 22, 2011 5:07am Sep 22, 2011 5:07am
BUOB on h1 chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 25 KB
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #27,535
  • Sep 22, 2011 5:38am Sep 22, 2011 5:38am
and the shell game continues, move some money here, print some money there, cover some other currencies, the motives and reasons only known to a select few, a very small group of world players manipulating economies...Japan' Tsunami, nuclear melt down, typhoons and their currency gets stronger by the minute....makes sense to me
Never been vouched
  • #27,536
  • Sep 22, 2011 5:55am Sep 22, 2011 5:55am
74.15/30 must be reached first before any bulls....the low is
certainly not done yet....
  • #27,537
  • Sep 22, 2011 6:02am Sep 22, 2011 6:02am
Quoting Demon Bane
74.15/30 must be reached first before any bulls....the low is
certainly not done yet....
Now,I am agreed with you,My Reason lying In Eurjpy Pairs and other Cross,Big Pressure Sell and JPY Would Be bought But we Might be wrong but lets see together yo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Monthly.png Size: 39 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,538
  • Sep 22, 2011 6:03am Sep 22, 2011 6:03am
ive said it before

if 75 breaks we WILL see 72.50

but on the other side if 78 breaks we will revisit the 80.24


till then im just sitting on all my shorts... long term target is still 65ish and dare I say it.... lower....
  • #27,539
  • Sep 22, 2011 6:08am Sep 22, 2011 6:08am
Quoting Wulfgar
ive said it before

if 75 breaks we WILL see 72.50

but on the other side if 78 breaks we will revisit the 80.24


till then im just sitting on all my shorts... long term target is still 65ish and dare I say it.... lower....
May you show me the chart show that UJ targeting 65 In Long term ?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,540
  • Sep 22, 2011 6:12am Sep 22, 2011 6:12am
Quoting SIgurs
If indeed credibility is irrelevant;

- why is the Chf not appreciating ?
- why is no one calling their bluff ?
- why has there been no attempt to short above 1.20 ?
- why is Chf way higher than the line put in the sand by the Snb ?

Why is it that most people don't drive too fast ? Credibility/psychology ! Afraid to be caught by the police and knowing that sanctions may follow. Same principle applies to forex/markets in general, especially in todays environment.

Today's currency war is not solely based on numbers, it's psychology. So yes,...
I see what you mean now. I take back what I said.
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