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  • #541,941
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:55pm Sep 21, 2011 10:55pm
Quoting merkel
From all that I've read, the EUR/USD rate is likely to go to 1.20-1.25 once double dip recession fears kick in and people also realize that Europe will not come up with a real solution to the peripheral nations' problems (debt being only one of them, the euro being the other). This "kicking the can down the road" nonsense is finally losing its luster, and you'll see fewer and fewer days that the markets and EUR rally on headlines like "China may purchase Greek debt".

If you read Dennis Gartman's newsletter, he has been screaming about EUR...
Reading Dennis Gartman - who has a prognosis failure rate of 69% and Zerohedge which has a failure rate of 87% with its "predictions" - is as useful as a can of garbage...

If you would have observed US Treasury holdings in the last 9 months, you would have observed that actually Russia has sold a substantial part of its holdings while Chinaīs holdings have risen.

China helping Greece? Who is China? Mother Theresa?
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #541,942
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:55pm Sep 21, 2011 10:55pm
Quoting dvc11
How long more will Eur keep plunging?

Would it be possible for 1 Eur = 1 Usd?

Or even 0.8 Euro = 1 Usd????? :-O
Yes, very possible, Italy is a country only on paper. What they discovered in the last couple of days is nothing compare with what really is underneath. They all know about it and they try to hide it as much as they can. But they will not be able to hide it for long under current worldwide financial conditions.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #541,943
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:58pm Sep 21, 2011 10:58pm
Quoting buonvangvn
7 short : than 2400 pips , hold short
  • #541,944
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:58pm Sep 21, 2011 10:58pm
Quoting mla
Yes, very possible, Italy is a country only on paper. What they discovered in the last couple of days is nothing compare with what really is underneath. They all know about it and they try to hide it as much as they can. But they will not be able to hide it for long under current worldwide financial conditions.

mla


Darn.....everything seems like a mess...... Is there still hope or still possible to trade FX?
  • #541,945
  • Sep 21, 2011 11:01pm Sep 21, 2011 11:01pm
Quoting MisterTrader
Reading Dennis Gartman - who has a prognosis failure rate of 69% and Zerohedge which has a failure rate of 87% with its "predictions" - is as useful as a can of garbage...

If you would have observed US Treasury holdings in the last 9 months, you would have observed that actually Russia has sold a substantial part of its holdings while Chinaīs holdings have risen.

China helping Greece? Who is China? Mother Theresa?
I must agree that Dennis Gartman has been doing poorly recently--one need only look up the ETF that follows his newsletter. I am curious where you get the exact 69% failure rate from, though, please cite the source.

The zerohedge article was only to mention the Morgan Stanley prediction of the Euro. The same news was also on Bloomberg, in an even more dire picture of the EUR:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...r-at-1-25.html

So when Gartman recommends a trading strategy I also take it with a grain of salt, even though he's a very seasoned and respected trader. But when Morgan Stanely, Nomura, and others begin dropping their EUR estimates, I take notice...
  • #541,946
  • Sep 21, 2011 11:04pm Sep 21, 2011 11:04pm
Quoting dvc11
Darn.....everything seems like a mess...... Is there still hope or still possible to trade FX?
Yes. If you stick to a reasonable method and keep your position sizes small.

I don't see anything unusual.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #541,947
  • Sep 21, 2011 11:07pm Sep 21, 2011 11:07pm
Quoting Chicky
Yes. If you stick to a reasonable method and keep your position sizes small.

I don't see anything unusual.
Thanks!
  • #541,948
  • Sep 21, 2011 11:07pm Sep 21, 2011 11:07pm
Quoting dvc11
Darn.....everything seems like a mess...... Is there still hope or still possible to trade FX?
Yes, this is a good opportunity for us, big swing. Our biggest enemy is going to be a directional bias, an opinion about the market direction. We should learn how to feel the market and focus on that. Easy to say though.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #541,949
  • Sep 21, 2011 11:07pm Sep 21, 2011 11:07pm
Quoting Chicky
Yes. If you stick to a reasonable method and keep your position sizes small.

I don't see anything unusual.
We are entering into a very good support zone ................... a really good one.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #541,950
  • Sep 21, 2011 11:09pm Sep 21, 2011 11:09pm
Quoting dvc11
Darn...fx sure gives hopes and most time may feel like smashing the glass like a heavy hammer. Many times thought that it is going to reverse and it plunge deeper, but when I thought it is going to plunge then it reverse and keep going up?

@#!$!@$!@$!%% Or.......... is this FX Trading?

a 2000 pip drop is a possibility
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post4963829
  • #541,951
  • Sep 21, 2011 11:12pm Sep 21, 2011 11:12pm
Quoting Chicky
We are entering into a very good support zone ................... a really good one.
chicky's right for now. btw i love your chart, its very clear well you're the thief of wall street. Im sure you're going to do a good thieving here.

gold going up now, and correlates to eu pretty well. Gold is now in demand zone. Eu possible retracement to 3670s. good correlation so far with the two. attached are h4 of our lovely eu pair, and h1 gold.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gold.gif Size: 19 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #541,952
  • Sep 21, 2011 11:13pm Sep 21, 2011 11:13pm
Quoting merkel
I must agree that Dennis Gartman has been doing poorly recently--one need only look up the ETF that follows his newsletter. I am curious where you get the exact 69% failure rate from, though, please cite the source.

The zerohedge article was only to mention the Morgan Stanley prediction of the Euro. The same news was also on Bloomberg, in an even more dire picture of the EUR:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...r-at-1-25.html

So when Gartman recommends a trading...
Be careful about "name dropping". Nomura, Morgan Stanley and others are talking their book - of course. Every international bank is doing it.

Yet, the issue de jour is: what does the yield flattening in the US mean for yield differences of the US in comparison to EURO, GBP, JPY, AUD and other currencies?

Actually, I donīt see any US Dollar strength in the FEDīs decision.To the contrary: yield flattening is rather a sign of weakness...
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #541,953
  • Sep 21, 2011 11:14pm Sep 21, 2011 11:14pm
Quoting Chicky
We are entering into a very good support zone ................... a really good one.
Sorry about my ignorance, what is it?

Cheers
mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #541,954
  • Sep 21, 2011 11:14pm Sep 21, 2011 11:14pm
Quoting Chicky
Yes. If you stick to a reasonable method and keep your position sizes small.

I don't see anything unusual.
+1 from me. Especially if you plan to enter a long-term position, don't get greedy and use high leverage. You need to be able to absorb some loss, but not beyond a reasonable stop loss considering your expected gains. Picking a top/bottom is impossible, so don't even try it. I got burned last year trying that with a longer term trade. Sometimes you have to get burned to learn the lesson, though...
  • #541,955
  • Sep 21, 2011 11:16pm Sep 21, 2011 11:16pm
Quoting bumapatria
chicky's right for now. btw i love your chart, its very clear well you're the thief of wall street. Im sure you're going to do a good thieving here.

gold going up now, and correlates to eu pretty well. Gold is now in demand zone. Eu possible retracement to 3670s. good correlation so far with the two. attached are h4 of our lovely eu pair, and h1 gold.
I think for correlation with the euro you should look at oil.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #541,956
  • Sep 21, 2011 11:16pm Sep 21, 2011 11:16pm
forexboom did we reach 1.4500 ??
  • #541,957
  • Sep 21, 2011 11:18pm Sep 21, 2011 11:18pm
Quoting mla
I think for correlation with the euro you should look at oil.

mla
wow.. .even better.

thanks friend, appreciate it.

i love working with correlation.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #541,958
  • Sep 21, 2011 11:19pm Sep 21, 2011 11:19pm
Quoting MisterTrader
Be careful about "name dropping". Nomura, Morgan Stanley and others are talking their book - of course. Every international bank is doing it.

Yet, the issue de jour is: what does the yield flattening in the US mean for yield differences of the US in comparison to EURO, GBP, JPY, AUD and other currencies?

Actually, I donīt see any US Dollar strength in the FEDīs decision.To the contrary: yield flattening is rather a sign of weakness...
LOL, I don't mind dropping the names of Nomura and Morgan Stanley. And Goldman Sachs for that matter also dropped their estimates, albeit to 1.40 from 1.45 but they've been EUR bulls all along.

Twisting the yield curve does nothing to dollar valuation. QE3 would have printed more money and we would have seen EUR skyrocket today.

The reason for the drop in risk assets (read: EUR and stocks) today is because people don't believe that twisting will have any positive effect on the economy. Thus, they fly to safety, and definitely away from riskier assets like the EUR. With the Swiss Franc pegged against the EUR and Japan very intervention-happy in the forex market, the USD is really the only "safe haven", if you could even call it that. The fact that no QE3 was announced is a relief to those who wanted to be bullish of the USD but were wary of more dilution.
  • #541,959
  • Sep 21, 2011 11:20pm Sep 21, 2011 11:20pm
Quoting bumapatria
wow.. .even better.

thanks friend, appreciate it.

i love working with correlation.
I think is good, I do that sometime, but you need to be on your toes, they are not always right and they change often.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #541,960
  • Sep 21, 2011 11:22pm Sep 21, 2011 11:22pm
Quoting Halifax
I know how you feel

Had a short on AUD from 1.10 in August, left my stop too tight and went out for the night, when I came back she was dropping like a stone and I was stopped out.

RAGE!
Hey Halifax

I had 3 lots around there, milked 2 to death, and left 1 full lot, cost a few coins exchange, Gator had buy order at 60 I made a deal I would meet him there I was tempted to close all a couple of times, parity scares me tho, is biggest round number you can get, I have just closed and left 3 stragglers.
Drop actually came quicker than I expected, au economist were predicting 90 about 2 weeks ago, but I waiting to see what parity has

Was a nice trade, sorry about the stop out, around extremes Im pretty much focused, till my trades got some protection then I eat and sleep lol
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