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  • #541,921
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:37pm Sep 21, 2011 9:37pm
Euro...Euro....Euro....... sigh.....
  • #541,922
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:49pm Sep 21, 2011 9:49pm
Quoting bumapatria
@ mohan.

would that affect gold?


Todays close will be very important for gold bear. Daily close below 1768.5 will strengthen gold bearish intent for another 500 pip drop by week end.
looking above 1783will be important for reversal or continuation .
From my observation gold looks so correlated to eu these days.
Eu broke daily breakup bar barrier 3589 and gold should follow
  • #541,923
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:54pm Sep 21, 2011 9:54pm
Quoting Myrza
Todays close will be very important for gold bear. Daily close below 1768.5 will strengthen gold bearish intent for another 500 pip drop by week end.
looking above 1783will be important for reversal or continuation .
From my observation gold looks so correlated to eu these days.
Eu broke daily breakup bar barrier 3589 and gold should follow
thanks myrza.

im new to gold and i think i close too early. i traded the bearish move on gold 1814.60, and i closed to early i guess. i honestly believe gold requires more tolerance.. despite that, i traded the sell-off on the fomc statement.

myrza, do you have any ta for the dow?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #541,924
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:55pm Sep 21, 2011 9:55pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
Im long GBP/Yen is retesting broken extreme low now, if can break clean, or break retest and reject will be keen to add.

EU Chart 1hr my read -

PA was progess nicely ascending channel then pierce utl not hold retrace back into channel,
2nd try blew through, news enhanced, was smacked down by 3936 (last broken support become resist) seller held at 3895
then push down to gap origin / week end 3794
Weekly open held until ltl of daily channel breached, then weekly open held 2nd bull attempt
3rd attempt it pierce to 3719 but not hold
4th attempt...
all ladies at support bro...
reaction will be very interesting...
will probably try some long here....tight sl..
might wrk
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #541,925
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:58pm Sep 21, 2011 9:58pm
Hey Mr Kiwi, CYN news not so good bro may see 955 ish Took profit @1.000 and got buy order .9550 full boat but will hit buy if pa has a good bounce..

Regards

Quoting KiwiTrada
AU is 1.0027 very close to parity, reaction should be interesting
  • #541,926
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:02pm Sep 21, 2011 10:02pm
Quoting bumapatria
thanks myrza.

im new to gold and i think i close too early. i traded the bearish move on gold 1814.60, and i closed to early i guess. i honestly believe gold requires more tolerance.. despite that, i traded the sell-off on the fomc statement.

myrza, do you have any ta for the dow?
Strongly bearish with no reversal sign in sight.
Looking at weekly the high of breakdown bar holds.
Projection lower is a bit hard ...if you fib it 10000 maybe is the target. It is a confluence of 50 fib and monthly hidden gap bar.
10000 is a nice number too
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  • #541,927
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:02pm Sep 21, 2011 10:02pm
7 short : than 2400 pips , hold short
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  • #541,928
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:03pm Sep 21, 2011 10:03pm
there is nothing worse that being on the right side of a trade but having a tight stop (stopped out) only to see the market move 30-40 pips in your direction a few minutes later. in between are another 2 trades chasing the market. so three losing trades when the original one is 40 pips in the profit.

very annoyed at myself for making the same mistake umpteen times over.
  • #541,929
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:05pm Sep 21, 2011 10:05pm
Quoting Myrza
Strongly bearish with no reversal sign in sight.
Looking at weekly the high of breakdown bar holds.
Projection lower is a bit hard ...if you fib it 10000 maybe is the target. It is a confluence of 50 fib and monthly hidden gap bar.
10000 is a nice number too
ok thank you.

will short it once a tiny retracement comes.

so where did you put the fibo?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #541,930
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:13pm Sep 21, 2011 10:13pm
How long more will Eur keep plunging?

Would it be possible for 1 Eur = 1 Usd?

Or even 0.8 Euro = 1 Usd????? :-O
  • #541,931
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:15pm Sep 21, 2011 10:15pm
Quoting sdcasper
there is nothing worse that being on the right side of a trade but having a tight stop (stopped out) only to see the market move 30-40 pips in your direction a few minutes later. in between are another 2 trades chasing the market. so three losing trades when the original one is 40 pips in the profit.

very annoyed at myself for making the same mistake umpteen times over.
I know how you feel

Had a short on AUD from 1.10 in August, left my stop too tight and went out for the night, when I came back she was dropping like a stone and I was stopped out.

RAGE!
"Don't Panic..."
  • #541,932
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:20pm Sep 21, 2011 10:20pm
Quoting dvc11
How long more will Eur keep plunging?

Would it be possible for 1 Eur = 1 Usd?

Or even 0.8 Euro = 1 Usd????? :-O
From all that I've read, the EUR/USD rate is likely to go to 1.20-1.25 once double dip recession fears kick in and people also realize that Europe will not come up with a real solution to the peripheral nations' problems (debt being only one of them, the euro being the other). This "kicking the can down the road" nonsense is finally losing its luster, and you'll see fewer and fewer days that the markets and EUR rally on headlines like "China may purchase Greek debt".

If you read Dennis Gartman's newsletter, he has been screaming about EUR reaching as low as par. I hope he is right, because for one the euro has been overvalued for years, and secondly Europe will need the cheap currency to get back on its feet after the austerity- and uncertainty-fueled recession they are generating.

Even the analysts from big investment banks are saying 1.30 by year end, and one says 1.25 by March. Morgan Stanley is the one that says 1.25 by March 2012:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/morgan...currency-endin

In any event, all that is to say, don't buy and hold. The drop can and will go much further IMHO.
  • #541,933
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:24pm Sep 21, 2011 10:24pm
Quoting merkel
From all that I've read, the EUR/USD rate is likely to go to 1.20-1.25 once double dip recession fears kick in and people also realize that Europe will not come up with a real solution to the peripheral nations' problems (debt being only one of them, the euro being the other). This "kicking the can down the road" nonsense is finally losing its luster, and you'll see less and less days that the markets and EUR rally on headlines like "China may purchase Greek debt".

If you read Dennis Gartman's newsletter, he has been screaming about EUR...


Nice Analysis!

Do you think Technical will work no more?

What do you guys think too? Now only fundamentals work? Technical analysis down to the bin like it's currency?
  • #541,934
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:32pm Sep 21, 2011 10:32pm
Quoting merkel
From all that I've read, the EUR/USD rate is likely to go to 1.20-1.25


In any event, all that is to say, don't buy and hold. The drop can and will go much further IMHO.
Here's my revised S/d levels. Judging from my ta on weekly, and merkel's good research. its high probability will drop.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #541,935
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:39pm Sep 21, 2011 10:39pm
Gone Gone Gone......

Can you guy believe it? From August 30 till now, Eur was down appx 1040 pips!!!!!!


Is this Normal???????? :-O
  • #541,936
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:42pm Sep 21, 2011 10:42pm
Quoting dvc11
Nice Analysis!

Do you think Technical will work no more?

What do you guys think too? Now only fundamentals work? Technical analysis down to the bin like it's currency?
Technical still works, especially for day traders. Expect some nice little rallies all through the long-term drop in the EUR, for instance the rally we had early last week (what many would call a "dead cat bounce").

I can't trade like that right now, though, so I just sold at 1.45 and have been paying the rollover rates since then. I'm looking to exit at 1.20-1.25 depending on TA at the time. BTW, does anyone know of a retail broker with the best rollover rates (i.e. closest to the real market)?
  • #541,937
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:46pm Sep 21, 2011 10:46pm
Quoting dvc11
Nice Analysis!

Do you think Technical will work no more?

What do you guys think too? Now only fundamentals work? Technical analysis down to the bin like it's currency?

imho it is the other way around.
speculator trade mainly the price not the news
the whole move is mainly TA

watch the green line to the left. It reacts each time price reaches it.
Now 3795 will be the tougest area for bull to take. Billions of sell orders will be waiting here
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  • #541,938
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:47pm Sep 21, 2011 10:47pm
Quoting merkel
Technical still works, especially for day traders. Expect some nice little rallies all through the long-term drop in the EUR, for instance the rally we had early last week (what many would call a "dead cat bounce").

I can't trade like that right now, though, so I just sold at 1.45 and have been paying the rollover rates since then. I'm looking to exit at 1.20-1.25 depending on TA at the time. BTW, does anyone know of a retail broker with the best rollover rates (i.e. closest to the real market)?


I know not of the best rollover rates though as I'm new to fx and still learning.

Gee.....guess my hope of having financial freedom and a fulfilling FX Trading Career will follow the Eur Plunge.
  • #541,939
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:51pm Sep 21, 2011 10:51pm
Quoting Myrza
imho it is the other way around.
speculator trade mainly the price not the news
the whole move is mainly TA

watch the green line to the left. It reacts each time price reaches it.
Now 3795 will be the tougest area for bull to take. Billions of sell orders will be waiting here


Darn...fx sure gives hopes and most time may feel like smashing the glass like a heavy hammer. Many times thought that it is going to reverse and it plunge deeper, but when I thought it is going to plunge then it reverse and keep going up?

@#!$!@$!@$!%% Or.......... is this FX Trading?
  • #541,940
  • Sep 21, 2011 10:51pm Sep 21, 2011 10:51pm
Frankie'll probably give us a retrace. Positive Eurozone PMI news in the early morn will be enough cover. Long from sub .3550 could get you 50 maybe 100 pips. I am looking for a long scalp to stick anyways.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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