USD/JPY Discussion | Page 1374 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,461
  • Sep 21, 2011 5:01am Sep 21, 2011 5:01am
Daily S1 @ 76.28 giving support right now, will it hold.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0380.jpg Size: 88 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,462
  • Sep 21, 2011 8:45am Sep 21, 2011 8:45am
Here is the updated chart. The RSI trendline is still holding. This is the first time in my 30+ years trading that I see an over two month unbroken trendline on the RSI without the market responding in the direction of the trendline. It is a bit bewildering. We have the second green divergence arrow in two days on the THV and 10 green arrows out of the last 12. From my experience, this has real meaning, folks. Also the fast trix turned green and is about to cross the slow trix. Another clear buy signal. Will we drop under 76 before we explode upwards? I doubt it but it is possible in the form of a quick spike down that wouldnŽt reflect on the RSI which is measured at the close of each bar. Technnically this is not a normal situation. It will be extremely interesting to watch how it finally develops. I still strongly feel that it will end up breaking firmly to the upside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 115 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,463
  • Sep 21, 2011 8:57am Sep 21, 2011 8:57am
Quoting Alorente
Here is the updated chart. The RSI trendline is still holding. This is the first time in my 30+ years trading that I see an over two month unbroken trendline on the RSI without the market responding in the direction of the trendline. It is a bit bewildering. We have the second green divergence arrow in two days on the THV and 10 green arrows out of the last 12. From my experience, this has real meaning, folks. Also the fast trix turned green and is about to cross the slow trix. Another clear buy signal. Will we drop under 76 before we explode upwards?...
Thanks for the update. Guess all it needs to move out of this tight consolidation is todays FED meeting/outcome and Japanese reaction to it.
  • #27,464
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:06am Sep 21, 2011 9:06am
moved SL from 75.90 to 76.10
next POI 76.52 DPP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0381.jpg Size: 107 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,465
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:22am Sep 21, 2011 9:22am
Quoting SIgurs
Thanks for the update. Guess all it needs to move out of this tight consolidation is todays FED meeting/outcome and Japanese reaction to it.
Existing homes sales was a mini trigger, but I agree that the mega trigger will be FOMC. We will do or die after that. From what the technicals tell me, the announcement out of the meeting will be dollar positive.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,466
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:25am Sep 21, 2011 9:25am
Quoting USD-Bear
moved SL from 75.90 to 76.10
next POI 76.52 DPP

Attachment
Bear, I donŽt think moving your stop so tightly is a very good idea with FOMC announcement coming. The reason is that there will be a spike both ways before an established direction surfaces. So even if 10 minutes after the announcement we may be way up, it is likely that you will have been stopped out due to volatility just before that. I just moved my stop considerably lower exactly because of this.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,467
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:28am Sep 21, 2011 9:28am
Quoting Alorente
Bear, I donŽt think moving your stop so tightly is a very good idea with FOMC announcement coming. The reason is that there will be a spike both ways before an established direction surfaces. So even if 10 minutes after the announcement we may be way up, it is likely that you will have been stopped out due to volatility just before that. I just moved my stop considerably lower exactly because of this.
you might be right there although I feel it's pretty protected, thanks
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,468
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:34am Sep 21, 2011 9:34am
For whatever it is worth, IŽd like to tell you that my company in the US has experienced a jump in sales since the middle of August. We touch various areas that are quite economically sensitive, especially the Green Grass Golf sector. The company has always been (32 years) a good predictor of short term future economic activity. From the numbers IŽm seeing, I expect a solid turnaround in the American economy in the 4th quarter. I think the GDP numbers will surprise many. This, of course, will launch the dollar forward, considering Europe will be slow for several quarters and Asia is slowing down considerably also. Maybe thatŽs what the dollar Index has been trying to tell us for the past few weeks.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,469
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:38am Sep 21, 2011 9:38am
Quoting Alorente
Existing homes sales was a mini trigger, but I agree that the mega trigger will be FOMC. We will do or die after that. From what the technicals tell me, the announcement out of the meeting will be dollar positive.
GU and Eur Would Be down later
Btw,FOMC When ya Sir?

One of my important concern still Eurjpy,if there is big drop In eur then again JPY will be sell because it would effect UJ since related one each other,Secondly The Eurjpy pair was break the Important trendlines

Chart attached
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ Monthly.png Size: 37 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,470
  • Edited 9:52am Sep 21, 2011 9:40am | Edited 9:52am
nice to hear Alorente, here another indicator which points in that direction:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0382.png Size: 44 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,471
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:41am Sep 21, 2011 9:41am
ok, this small move has my attention, although i am now a well trained pavlov dog to believe that each of these upticks will lead to the next lower low (which means that maybe the turn is here, as my successful training is perfectly correlated to market turns) :-))))
  • #27,472
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:45am Sep 21, 2011 9:45am
i don't want to be stopped out, but don't want to blow up my account. i don't want to risk a small amount. is there any solution here? (I am betting this goes up, just as the other 85% of retail who are long USD JPY) ... which means of course the evil robots will be coming for stops! advice / help thanks!
  • #27,473
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:51am Sep 21, 2011 9:51am
Quoting freiburg
i don't want to be stopped out, but don't want to blow up my account. i don't want to risk a small amount. is there any solution here? (I am betting this goes up, just as the other 85% of retail who are long USD JPY) ... which means of course the evil robots will be coming for stops! advice / help thanks!
lol, no there is not I'm afraid, no risk no return.
Just search those areas where risks look minimized and chances maximized.
Or wait until the turn has accomplished and walk with the trend which is the way to go for most traders....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,474
  • Sep 21, 2011 9:55am Sep 21, 2011 9:55am
Quoting freiburg
i don't want to be stopped out, but don't want to blow up my account. i don't want to risk a small amount. is there any solution here? (I am betting this goes up, just as the other 85% of retail who are long USD JPY) ... which means of course the evil robots will be coming for stops! advice / help thanks!
The only solution is to play less leverage (50:1 max) and lower your stop considerably before FOMC. I just lowered it to 74. IŽll bring it up again an hour or so after the announcement.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,475
  • Sep 21, 2011 1:19pm Sep 21, 2011 1:19pm
Wake UP My UJ Traderssssss
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,476
  • Sep 21, 2011 1:29pm Sep 21, 2011 1:29pm
No Q3. Just a sterile twist. I think this is dollar positive since Q3 was partly built into prices the last few days.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,477
  • Sep 21, 2011 1:30pm Sep 21, 2011 1:30pm
no new confirmed lows...so it should go up sooner or later
  • #27,478
  • Sep 21, 2011 1:34pm Sep 21, 2011 1:34pm
Gold is dropping fast. It looks like this is good for the dollar.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,479
  • Sep 21, 2011 1:34pm Sep 21, 2011 1:34pm
Quoting USD-Bear
next POI 76.52 DPP

Attachment

would be nice if we can keep it above 76.52 now

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0002.jpg Size: 104 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,480
  • Sep 21, 2011 1:51pm Sep 21, 2011 1:51pm
Sell @ 76.58

TP = 76.38

SL = 76.65
44 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
TooSlow