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  • #1,441
  • Sep 20, 2011 5:00am Sep 20, 2011 5:00am
THAT is the real deal.
Quoting ride.inc
..... special high probability opportunities........
  • #1,442
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:34am Sep 20, 2011 8:34am
Quoting fosters
Will this algo will be based on the first qualified breakout on each side of each CZ, which I think will really define the success or otherwise of that CZ? By qualified I mean the 2-bar close criteria
All thanks to you for the system and great job by Sq.
Won't know what Squalou has cooked up for us until the release, but if it were up to me, then I would say 'yes' to your question. I would vote to only consider the 1st breakout in the new calculations. The Extended CZ was never meant to be used for breakouts. It's just a tool to help visualize possible S/R zones. Maybe they can be used for later trades, and maybe they can't, but those trades aren't Consolidation Zone Breakouts.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,443
  • Sep 20, 2011 11:28am Sep 20, 2011 11:28am
Here is the v1.13 version of the indi.

It mainly provides improvements on the statistical area:

- the indicator now simulates "trades" taken from the trade signals, and cumulates the "best result" for each "trade", not just the best-buy/best-sell per session/box;
An "open trade session" is "closed" when trade would hit the SL, but the actual "pip count" taken for this trade is its best positive extension (best swing before the SL is hit);
A new box forming also closes any open "trade session".
Only ONE trade is taken at any time, even when multiple consecutive signals appear for the same direction;
The stats summary now displays the total number of TRADES taken, the cumulated best "pip count", and the average "best pip count" per trade;

- added "MaxBreakoutTradesPerBox" input (default=1);
this is the maximum number of "trades" taken and shown for each CZ Box session;
Any additional signal past this number of trades is ignored until a new box forms;
Defaults to 1: only 1 trade per Box is counted, then wait for the next CZ box.
Set it to a very high number (999 for instandce) to count and show all breakout trades;
Set it to 0 to disable trades plotting and counting -- this will also disable statistical results, though.

- added "SL" input (default=1.000);
this is a factor of the Box size, or a fixed-pips amount if greater than "TP_is_pips_above";
The SL is converted to a pip count, then applied to the trade open price;
There is no option to set the SL at the opposite CZ Box;


There is no BreakEven option in the indicator.


You can of course play with the "MinBarsClosedOutsideBO" input to see the impact on the trades expectations.

Possible improvements:

- separate max trade count for buy and sell directions ?

- determine the win% based on a set R:R ratio ?

- collect win% for each TP level, in order to adjust TP levels so that we get specific win% ?
- set TP1 to get a 90% hit
- set TP2 to get a 80% hit
- set TP3 to get a 70% hit
etc
Just an idea.


- I haven't fixed the issue with the chart's TF yet... will do in another version; for now, just use a TF that is consistent with "BoxTimeFrame";


Have fun!

Sq
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 sqDynamicBreakoutBox.mq4   47 KB | 2,159 downloads
  • #1,444
  • Sep 20, 2011 12:21pm Sep 20, 2011 12:21pm
Your skill and efforts are always appreciated. Thanks a lot (from all of us).
Quoting squalou
... is the v1.13 version of the indi......
Have fun!

Sq
  • #1,445
  • Sep 20, 2011 12:32pm Sep 20, 2011 12:32pm
Quoting squalou
Here is the v1.13 version of the indi.

It mainly provides improvements on the statistical area:

- the indicator now simulates "trades" taken from the trade signals, and cumulates the "best result" for each "trade", not just the best-buy/best-sell per session/box;
An "open trade session" is "closed" when trade would hit the SL, but the actual "pip count" taken for this trade is its best positive extension (best swing before the SL is hit);
A new box forming also closes any open "trade session".
Only ONE trade...
Thanks Heaps Sq
  • #1,446
  • Edited 1:11pm Sep 20, 2011 12:52pm | Edited 1:11pm
Squalou, I see where you were going with this, and it works great. This is going to be a BIG help. But the target values are not exactly right. Please adjust the TP & SL values to the notes on the pic.

Also, in the event of a reversal (where price reaches the correct SL value (red line) after a correct 2-close entry), the algo pauses. At this point we have lost ca. 47 pips (CZ=30, Buffer=7, 2-candle close= ca.10). This scenario is considered a "true" stop out.

Should a true stop out take place, now we need to consider what to do when price starts moving again. E.g., Do we ignore it completely? Do we trade again, but with the exact same rules and lot sizes as before? If not, do we open at the next Buffer Line cross instead of waiting for 2 closes? And do we risk a higher lot size in order to recoup our losses? Once these questions are answered we will have our complete system, ready for converting into the EA.

The mod I just asked for should answer these questions.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.gif Size: 94 KB
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,447
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:26pm Sep 20, 2011 1:26pm
Another value worth keeping track of is the gap created by waiting for the 2 candles to close.

So first, I think it would be helpful to have a value painted next to the opening arrow as shown in the pic. The controls for this should be the same as for the CZ values; same font/color settings control both.

A new line for the stat box would be extremely helpful for keeping track of this value:

Box=NNNNNN
25 BoxesNNNNNN
10 Buys=NNNNNN
10 Sells=NNNNNN
Gap Average=14p
Attached Image
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,448
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:31pm Sep 20, 2011 1:31pm
Thanks Squalou!

As you know, I vote a big yes to the following option. It would be very valuable in testing and optimising:

determine the win% based on a set R:R ratio ?


Quoting squalou
Here is the v1.13 version of the indi.

It mainly provides improvements on the statistical area:

- the indicator now simulates "trades" taken from the trade signals, and cumulates the "best result" for each "trade", not just the best-buy/best-sell per session/box;
An "open trade session" is "closed" when trade would hit the SL, but the actual "pip count" taken for this trade is its best positive extension (best swing before the SL is hit);
A new box forming also closes any open "trade session".
Only ONE trade is taken at...
Believe and Achieve!
  • #1,449
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:44pm Sep 20, 2011 1:44pm
This pic shows a worse case scenario of 2 consecutive losses according to my base rules (as given in my last 2 posts). There is no way around this. Reversals will happen, and losses will happen because of it. There is no such thing as a system without losses. This is where correct Money Management comes into play.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.gif Size: 104 KB
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,450
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:49pm Sep 20, 2011 1:49pm
Quoting sirwolf
Thanks Squalou!....As you know, I vote a big yes to the following option. It would be very valuable in testing and optimising: determine the win% based on a set R:R ratio ?
Me too. And I hope my last few posts do a good enough job of showing actual examples of this. I think this is our best option for preparing for the EA.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,451
  • Sep 20, 2011 1:59pm Sep 20, 2011 1:59pm
FH,

Your posts depict exactly what we discussed. I am sure Squalou ccan work his magic and make it happen with time.

SirWolf

Quoting forexhard
Me too. And I hope my last few posts do a good enough job of showing actual examples of this. I think this is our best option for preparing for the EA.
Believe and Achieve!
  • #1,452
  • Sep 20, 2011 2:01pm Sep 20, 2011 2:01pm
Hey Mer, it's creeping up that way, but still not there yet. You still think it's gonna reach it? Break it down for us, pls.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.png Size: 20 KB
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,453
  • Sep 20, 2011 2:24pm Sep 20, 2011 2:24pm
Quoting andri66
Not really sure ..close both with 15 pips each.. hope tomorrow got some pips again..Good luck guys !!
Do you want to post a chart of this 15 pip trade and why you got out as I cant see any obvious reason to exit and still gain 15 pips, you must have exited during the bar formation ?
  • #1,454
  • Sep 20, 2011 2:26pm Sep 20, 2011 2:26pm
Quoting forexhard
Hey Mer, it's creeping up that way, but still not there yet. You still think it's gonna reach it? Break it down for us, pls.
The 1.5734 is still holding on my chart, as expected.
To reach Mer's projected 1.5760 means GU will need to go into an up trend (RSI 20) - possible but not very likely IMHO.

  • #1,455
  • Sep 20, 2011 4:36pm Sep 20, 2011 4:36pm
Quote
The 1.5734 is still holding on my chart, as expected.
To reach Mer's projected 1.5760 means GU will need to go into an up trend (RSI 20) - possible but not very likely IMHO.

Yes, but notice how the price has broken through the convergence of the two trendlines and is now finding some support from the lower trendline. Remember, as of this post I still have a 2 1/2 hours to go though, so don't get too confident, lol!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: entry and stop.jpg Size: 146 KB
  • #1,456
  • Sep 20, 2011 4:49pm Sep 20, 2011 4:49pm
I'm still impartial Mer, but aren't you a little worried about an Asian correction about now?

But what no one is talking about is that nice 50-pip breakout on Mer's chart.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,457
  • Sep 20, 2011 5:08pm Sep 20, 2011 5:08pm
Quote
I'm still impartial Mer, but aren't you a little worried about an Asian correction about now?

But what no one is talking about is that nice 50-pip breakout on Mer's chart.

The Asian open doesn't really influence the Gbp/Usd as much as most people think. Sure there are some small corrections, but it also may push it in my favor, I just don't think it will push up to the box until after the open, but we'll have to wait and see. The only real obstacle that may hurt me here is the drop in volume which may just stop it where it's at. It doesn't really matter though, it's is just a friendly wager. I just want people to open there eyes and see some of the other tools that are out there that can influence their decision making.
  • #1,458
  • Sep 20, 2011 5:38pm Sep 20, 2011 5:38pm
What the???

Anybody else got this on their charts? I see this on M5 too. 200 pip spike. Wow.
Attached Image
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #1,459
  • Sep 20, 2011 5:47pm Sep 20, 2011 5:47pm
Quoting forexhard
What the???

Anybody else got this on their charts? I see this on M5 too. 200 pip spike. Wow.
Yup I got it too.
  • #1,460
  • Sep 20, 2011 6:12pm Sep 20, 2011 6:12pm
Rumors on Asian open, SNB was silent, people panicked and bought it. Link to new story on FF:

Swissy spikes versus major counterparts
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=316090
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
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