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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,341
  • Sep 19, 2011 10:03am Sep 19, 2011 10:03am
Quoting Yuchen
lol.. i placed a long limit UJ at 76.42 last month and i already forgot this order just found it excuted 15 mins ago.
anybodies guess atm think 76.30 might hold it, presume you have it secured?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,342
  • Sep 19, 2011 10:29am Sep 19, 2011 10:29am
going long, too good a price!
  • #27,343
  • Sep 19, 2011 10:34am Sep 19, 2011 10:34am
Quoting USD-Bear
long stopped @ BE
Looking what PA does around 76.30

Attachment
timing was key here, what could have looked as a trend up was the peak in a low liquidity market which was carried further downward during the US session open
  • #27,344
  • Sep 19, 2011 11:15am Sep 19, 2011 11:15am
I feel intervention is just about here. More or less they've already stated it in the newspaper in Japan. What kind of bump is in the cards here, if they do it? 80? 82?
  • #27,345
  • Sep 19, 2011 11:59am Sep 19, 2011 11:59am
Big Guys only can earn after hitting all the SL placed by " long u/j" retail traders.

and best placed for hit all the honey sl around 75.5.

This Game won before play: Big Guys makes very high confidance level of all the retail traders on u/j, see sentiments right now +80% retail customers on long side usd/jpy.

And they will run away during droping to 75.5...

Conclusion: if Your mm allow to hold u/j till 75.00 than jump in this train.

Happy Trading!



Quoting USD-Bear
anybodies guess atm think 76.30 might hold it, presume you have it secured?
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #27,346
  • Sep 19, 2011 12:23pm Sep 19, 2011 12:23pm
Quoting freiburg
I feel intervention is just about here. More or less they've already stated it in the newspaper in Japan. What kind of bump is in the cards here, if they do it? 80? 82?
Why would they intervene prior to knowing what their two major trade partners will do ?
  • #27,347
  • Sep 19, 2011 12:55pm Sep 19, 2011 12:55pm
well, they may not intervene per se, but they are announcing something regarding currency "as early as tomorrow" coming from the the Japanese version of Reuters.

You could argue the other way as well ... why not pre-empt. Intervening before or after each has pros and cons, and maybe the central banks talk to each other, which in any case they do.

I don't know obviously the answer, and if I did, I would be a gazillionaire.

I know the Swiss German mentality is probably more action oriented, and the Asians have endless patience. But these endless hints will be taken as non-serious if they don't do something, and so they probably will do something. Maybe tonight ?
  • #27,348
  • Sep 19, 2011 12:59pm Sep 19, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting khizer
Big Guys only can earn after hitting all the SL placed by " long u/j" retail traders.

and best placed for hit all the honey sl around 75.5.

This Game won before play: Big Guys makes very high confidance level of all the retail traders on u/j, see sentiments right now +80% retail customers on long side usd/jpy.

And they will run away during droping to 75.5...

Conclusion: if Your mm allow to hold u/j till 75.00 than jump in this train.

Happy Trading!
true, true but.....
- recent up-down spikes should have cleared most stops
- +80% data not so relevant its status quo level for long time
- most stops lie within 20-50 pips from current level.
- Being a bastard I would rather kill stops at other more active and rewarding pairs.
Key for UJ imo is general world wide economy and related it's (artificial) safe haven effects it has on UJ. As soon as UJ's PA trends opposite to USD trend you know safe haven moves are fading and UJ gets chances north.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,349
  • Sep 19, 2011 1:00pm Sep 19, 2011 1:00pm
do you believe hedge funds can move something like usd jpy so far down without taking on some serious risk? (if they miscalculate the intervention). these are not small currencies, so how much a hedge fund can do is ... well i think limited. how many pips can a medium or large size hedge fund move this pair on the eve of intervention news, when everyone is watching?
  • #27,350
  • Edited 1:52pm Sep 19, 2011 1:37pm | Edited 1:52pm
If Japan doesn't step in, it will be a filet mignon and lobster dinner for the big boys... 74-75 stops.
  • #27,351
  • Sep 19, 2011 2:12pm Sep 19, 2011 2:12pm
Quoting freiburg
well, they may not intervene per se, but they are announcing something regarding currency "as early as tomorrow" coming from the the Japanese version of Reuters.
Can you post a link to this article please as I have not seen it elsewhere please. I shall see how Google Translate tackles a translatiation.

Anyway it sounds very interesting and lets face it, the central banks do tend to keep their intended invention fairly quite and certainly don't put an advertisement in the papers.
  • #27,352
  • Sep 19, 2011 2:16pm Sep 19, 2011 2:16pm
links posted by others above you can see the headline, but need to pay to read full text.
  • #27,353
  • Sep 19, 2011 2:16pm Sep 19, 2011 2:16pm
been going sideways for hours now and bound to break out big time to either side in the 5/15min ranges. tokyo open might bring that "expected" intervension (i wish
  • #27,354
  • Sep 19, 2011 2:20pm Sep 19, 2011 2:20pm
just broke above the bb and 50 ema in 5min
  • #27,355
  • Sep 19, 2011 2:24pm Sep 19, 2011 2:24pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
If Japan doesn't step in, it will be a filet mignon and lobster dinner for the big boys... 74-75 stops.
I agree with you. The only reason that has kept USD/JPY over 76 is fear of intervention.

I think Japanese will intervene like swiss. They would peg JPY.

If I were FM of japan, then I pegged JPY to CHF.

This is poker
  • #27,356
  • Sep 19, 2011 3:14pm Sep 19, 2011 3:14pm
i have a 0.1 lot long UJ at 76.50 with 30 pips stop and another 0.1 lot long UJ at 76.42 with no stop...
hope UJ will not drop below 57 otherwise my account will blow up, lol...
  • #27,357
  • Sep 19, 2011 3:27pm Sep 19, 2011 3:27pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
If Japan doesn't step in, it will be a filet mignon and lobster dinner for the big boys... 74-75 stops.
It seems that the pressure is on. Very curious to learn what they will or not do next few days.
  • #27,358
  • Sep 19, 2011 4:58pm Sep 19, 2011 4:58pm
the market is anticipating and coiling. can you feeeeel it????
  • #27,359
  • Edited 6:53pm Sep 19, 2011 6:52pm | Edited 6:53pm
Could someone copy and paste this article that has full access? http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/09/115602.html

Thank.

Faller.

Quoting realjumper
There's not much we can do with this bottom dwelling pair......Of note though, the last 3 Noda interventions have all occurred almost exactly 1 hour after Tokyo open........so that's when I watch this pair closely...hee hee hee......if nothing has happened after 2 or 3 hours, then I just carry on with my other trading pairs and forget this pair until tomorrow!

When and if it comes, who knows?.......at the moment though, watching paint dry is more interesting!
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #27,360
  • Sep 19, 2011 7:31pm Sep 19, 2011 7:31pm
Usd/Jpy Buy at 76.15/20 then 75.95/00 then 75.60/65, sell at 77.05/10 then 77.25/30 then 77.55/60

Usd/Jpy This pair is on daily downtrend, had hit yesterday low at 76.30/35(Good buy) after a successful breakout strategy started from yesterday support at 76.85, today retracement at 76.70, break is to good resistance at 76.95/00, above here is toward the above sell signals, while low price level is at 76.25/30, below would extend weakness to the above buy signals
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