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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,321
  • Sep 18, 2011 9:13pm Sep 18, 2011 9:13pm
BoJ Intervention risk appears relatively low in the short term as they'll wait for the Bernank meeting on Wednesday. That said, we're entering intervention territory so I'm reluctant to go short USD/JPY as Jawboning could pinch my stop loss.
  • #27,322
  • Sep 18, 2011 9:47pm Sep 18, 2011 9:47pm
Quoting AntonA
BoJ Intervention risk appears relatively low in the short term as they'll wait for the Bernank meeting on Wednesday. That said, we're entering intervention territory so I'm reluctant to go short USD/JPY as Jawboning could pinch my stop loss.
I expect no action before October (if at all) because of:

- bank holidays today and Thursday
- Fed meeting later this week
- no outcome or decision with regard to European action towards Greece to be expected before October

Why intervene prior to knowing what you are up against ?
  • #27,323
  • Sep 18, 2011 9:58pm Sep 18, 2011 9:58pm
And besides, why intervene right now?

The last 5 weeks average weekly range has been around a whopping 108 Pips while staying in the same range. For lack of a better term it has been really stable.

It will not stay here forever. It does not need intervention to make a strong break to the upside. If it makes a dive southward ....I suppose they will try again.
  • #27,324
  • Sep 18, 2011 10:17pm Sep 18, 2011 10:17pm
went long, looking for dollar to take on safe haven demand, and it's at the support levels now. if it breaks to 76.70 then broke support.
  • #27,325
  • Sep 18, 2011 10:35pm Sep 18, 2011 10:35pm
I can see where you got the 76.70 from. I am not going to worry if it drops below that, 76.40 is what I have my eyes set on as a do or die area. A drop below that and I will seriously have to contemplate exiting my long.

I have a weekly S1 level there as well as what seems to be a pretty strong support zone right above that level.

Either way, for both our sakes, hopefully it will break 77 and make a good move upward.
  • #27,326
  • Sep 18, 2011 11:18pm Sep 18, 2011 11:18pm
Quoting Jack Ripper
And besides, why intervene right now?

The last 5 weeks average weekly range has been around a whopping 108 Pips while staying in the same range. For lack of a better term it has been really stable.

It will not stay here forever. It does not need intervention to make a strong break to the upside. If it makes a dive southward ....I suppose they will try again.
Yeah that's right.....BOJ has always said that they're not aiming for any particular level (like SNB has done), rather they're aiming for stability.....well.....stability is what they have got!!!

For as long as the EZ procrastination and inaction persists, I can't see BOJ getting into the market.....and if anyone knows how to procrastinate and drag their heels, it's Trichet and company......worse than a bunch a women at knitting club!!!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,327
  • Sep 19, 2011 12:28am Sep 19, 2011 12:28am
this could be a peak, but we'll see
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  • #27,328
  • Sep 19, 2011 1:43am Sep 19, 2011 1:43am
short term support is holding. possibly not enough volume to drive it at this time.
  • #27,329
  • Sep 19, 2011 2:16am Sep 19, 2011 2:16am
Quoting werido
short term support is holding. possibly not enough volume to drive it at this time.
Market will seek new lows when authorities fail to act. Problem is that they are caught between US QE3 and European debt problems which sort of cripples possible action. I think that the US will decide on possible action fairly soon. As far as the Europeans are concerned .... burocracy at it's finest, could take weeks ;-)

They acted far too late. Instead of preventing and acting proactively, they are now forced to run behind the facts. Not exactly a enviable position.
  • #27,330
  • Sep 19, 2011 2:25am Sep 19, 2011 2:25am
Quoting USD-Bear
good evening all,

USD quickly recovering, break trough WPP @ 76.99 looks eminent

M15:
Attachment
actually fierce resistance in that region.
Getting tiered just from looking at this pair.
-placed stop on my long at BE
-placed limit order closing @ 77.60 just below MPP expecting retrace there towards 77
-having fun with EUR/USD now

See you all back @ 76.63 or 77.60 in the meantime have fun and take care....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,331
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:20am Sep 19, 2011 6:20am
Quoting jabbawest
I think we'll see a fall back to, or near, the opening numbers. GBP, EUR and even CHF are are there way back down after this latest rise, just like yesterday.
Dangit, just a few trading hours short but it finally got there.

Now we possibly have some walk after a lot of talk as a "plan" is supposedly being released Tuesday.

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/09/115602.html

Gov't plan to fight impact of strong yen may come out Tues.:
Furukawa
The government will release as early as Tuesday the basic outlines of a package aimed at alleviating the negative impact of the strong yen.

While I hope and expect some sort of action, I cannot imagine anything happening until the Greece issue is finally resolved and the FOMC moves have washed over the economic landscape.

Thoughts?
More than a grain of salt is advisable
  • #27,332
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:27am Sep 19, 2011 6:27am
Quoting jabbawest
Dangit, just a few trading hours short but it finally got there.

Now we possibly have some walk after a lot of talk as a "plan" is supposedly being released Tuesday.

http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/09/115602.html

Gov't plan to fight impact of strong yen may come out Tues.:
Furukawa
The government will release as early as Tuesday the basic outlines of a package aimed at alleviating the negative impact of the strong yen.

While I hope and expect some sort of action, I cannot imagine anything happening until the Greece...
There's not much we can do with this bottom dwelling pair......Of note though, the last 3 Noda interventions have all occurred almost exactly 1 hour after Tokyo open........so that's when I watch this pair closely...hee hee hee......if nothing has happened after 2 or 3 hours, then I just carry on with my other trading pairs and forget this pair until tomorrow!

When and if it comes, who knows?.......at the moment though, watching paint dry is more interesting!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,333
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:55am Sep 19, 2011 6:55am
Quoting realjumper
There's not much we can do with this bottom dwelling pair......Of note though, the last 3 Noda interventions have all occurred almost exactly 1 hour after Tokyo open........so that's when I watch this pair closely...hee hee hee......if nothing has happened after 2 or 3 hours, then I just carry on with my other trading pairs and forget this pair until tomorrow!

When and if it comes, who knows?.......at the moment though, watching paint dry is more interesting!
I completely agree. This pair is in a similar trading range at the EUR/CHF. One thing you don't want to do with it is short. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a collective central bank intervention sometime between now and Christmas.

Longs only. I personally believe it's a place to buy cheap dollars.
Probability Professor
  • #27,334
  • Sep 19, 2011 8:59am Sep 19, 2011 8:59am
USD/JPY will remain trapped in this channel at best, unless Japanese authorities intervene. USD gaining towards lots of pair, except towards the JPY. Imo, JPY still considered as the most important safe haven.

As for all other JPY related pairs, they will keep on heading down without action.

Relying on Europeans to solve their problems anytime soon is nothing but wishfull thinking. Eurozone too big and fragmented to work under current constellation. It needs fundamental changes if the Euro wants to survive.
  • #27,335
  • Sep 19, 2011 9:32am Sep 19, 2011 9:32am
Quoting SIgurs
USD/JPY will remain trapped in this channel at best, unless Japanese authorities intervene. USD gaining towards lots of pair, except towards the JPY. Imo, JPY still considered as the most important safe haven.

As for all other JPY related pairs, they will keep on heading down without action.

Relying on Europeans to solve their problems anytime soon is nothing but wishfull thinking. Eurozone too big and fragmented to work under current constellation. It needs fundamental changes if the Euro wants to survive.
The long waiting will also have as a result that "normal" intervention will have no long term effect. If the JPY wants to get rid of its safe haven stamp it will need to do a Swiss kind of trick as well. Not intervening within the next 24 hours will result in all time new lows, unless the Europeans meanwhile sorted things out. Hmmm, what are chances of that happening ? lol

Bet they wish they had been a tiny bit more proactive a few weeks ago ;-)
  • #27,336
  • Sep 19, 2011 9:38am Sep 19, 2011 9:38am
long stopped @ BE
Looking what PA does around 76.30

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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,337
  • Sep 19, 2011 9:38am Sep 19, 2011 9:38am
USD ain't no match for the JPY when it comes to safe haven thoroughness. New lows tomorrow unless Japanese magic is displayed.
  • #27,338
  • Sep 19, 2011 9:44am Sep 19, 2011 9:44am
at what levels you will took short!


Quoting USD-Bear
long stopped @ BE
Looking what PA does around 76.30

Attachment
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #27,339
  • Sep 19, 2011 9:47am Sep 19, 2011 9:47am
Quoting khizer
at what levels you will took short!
never ever
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,340
  • Sep 19, 2011 9:51am Sep 19, 2011 9:51am
lol.. i placed a long limit UJ at 76.42 last month and i already forgot this order just found it excuted 15 mins ago.
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