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EURUSD

  • #539,581
  • Sep 18, 2011 11:14am Sep 18, 2011 11:14am
Quoting gatorinla
before 3806 we get 3748/49... that was Friday.
you have this for friday ok....
I got 3751.

Cheers
aligater
born to speculate
  • #539,582
  • Sep 18, 2011 11:15am Sep 18, 2011 11:15am
Analysis:

- H4 chart illustrates current kumo resistance. Fridays 37480 would have been a good long entry, likely to be revisited Monday with next resistance around 3884.
A close below 37480 could bring bears back in play.

- D1 chart shows bearish trend from 43010 still valid but also indcates bullish potential up to 4200. This view - bearish with possible bullish correction is also supported by current kumo resistance on W1.

Strategy:

- scalp M5 according to S/R levels as highlighted in chart.

- watch 37480 for H4 entry (short below 371, long if bounce from 3748 and above 382)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 110916_eu_h4_2200.gif Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 110916_eu_d1_2200.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #539,583
  • Sep 18, 2011 11:33am Sep 18, 2011 11:33am
We still have about 10 days of trading before month end. On monthly we are still trading below monthly breakup bar / last conditional change bar or wrb-hg(filled 5x) ..what ever you want to call it. A monthly close below will turn YUro to speculators very bearish. Historically a monthly break below ..Yuro will be slaughtered 2000+ pip down

On weekly we already have a confirmed breakdown with that large bear pole down candle.

Bear is still very alive and kicking with short term sell orders around 3840/80 and bigger sell orders could be hibernating @ 4020/4080 level.

Question is...what is in the mind of Eu central bankers now?


Just my 2 cents
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu monthly.jpg Size: 72 KB
  • #539,584
  • Sep 18, 2011 11:39am Sep 18, 2011 11:39am
Quoting Myrza
3840/80 and bigger sell orders could be hibernating @ 4020/4080 level.
agree..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_poi.png Size: 30 KB
MarginTrader All Time Return: na
  • #539,585
  • Sep 18, 2011 11:48am Sep 18, 2011 11:48am
very good question, next question please
Quoting pkimnyc
A very good question.....
  • #539,586
  • Sep 18, 2011 11:49am Sep 18, 2011 11:49am
This!!!
Quoting bbakker
Assumptions are the mother of all fuck ups!
  • #539,587
  • Sep 18, 2011 11:52am Sep 18, 2011 11:52am
Quoting MaryJane
agree..
Very good chart, thank you for posting, even had to make some corrections in my chart about S&D levels.
  • #539,588
  • Sep 18, 2011 12:27pm Sep 18, 2011 12:27pm
Unfortunately, I'm not an Excel whiz as I couldn't convert Fridays EUR COT data into a decent looking graphical representation for everyone.
But I did find the following from ScotiaBank released on 9/16
http://www.scotiafx.com/Chart_Feed/IMM.pdf

I also uploaded it as an attachment in case the link fails.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf ScotiaBank COT.pdf   702 KB | 365 downloads
More than a grain of salt is advisable
  • #539,589
  • Sep 18, 2011 1:22pm Sep 18, 2011 1:22pm
Quoting pkimnyc
bank holiday in japan. not expecting much move during asia.
fomc on wednesday. major direction should take place after that, imo.
sydney, hongkong singapore can move the market as well
  • #539,590
  • Sep 18, 2011 1:28pm Sep 18, 2011 1:28pm
Quoting Pipwanderer
sydney, hongkong singapore can move the market as well
Gl.
  • #539,591
  • Sep 18, 2011 1:36pm Sep 18, 2011 1:36pm
Quoting pkimnyc
Gl.
i don't trade on mondays but if i see an opportunity i take it
  • #539,592
  • Sep 18, 2011 1:51pm Sep 18, 2011 1:51pm
Quoting Pipwanderer
i don't trade on mondays but if i see an opportunity i take it
Attached Image
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #539,593
  • Sep 18, 2011 1:54pm Sep 18, 2011 1:54pm
1.3771
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #539,594
  • Sep 18, 2011 1:58pm Sep 18, 2011 1:58pm
this kind of gradual drop (without any uptick) in premarket usually has follow-through between Wellington and Tokyo.. 3753 as i type, lol (oanda)

edit: 3710.. gappers, load your guns (i won't).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oandae.png Size: 19 KB
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  • #539,595
  • Sep 18, 2011 1:58pm Sep 18, 2011 1:58pm
Looks like.... GAAAAP
  • #539,596
  • Sep 18, 2011 2:04pm Sep 18, 2011 2:04pm
1.3718
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #539,597
  • Sep 18, 2011 2:08pm Sep 18, 2011 2:08pm
Put this to getter watching some football. Seam to be some probability's showing a possible continuation to the south on the weekly TF. Not saying It wouldn't be a bit of a rocky ride though...

Daily shows strong rejection by two long wicked candle @ 1.390 area with Fridays close as a bearish dark cloud cover (needing one more bearish candle, ideally w/gap and 100% cover of previous bull candle).

Will be interesting to see how this plays out and obviously my current settlement is bearish..

Have a Great week all and trade safe.

Best Regards

Chilly
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu weekly.gif Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu daily 9 18.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #539,598
  • Sep 18, 2011 2:15pm Sep 18, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting mrbandwidth
1.3718
Keeep going eu
  • #539,599
  • Sep 18, 2011 2:43pm Sep 18, 2011 2:43pm
Quoting Chillypiper
Daily shows strong rejection by two long wicked candle @ 1.390 area with Fridays close as a bearish dark cloud cover (needing one more bearish candle, ideally w/gap and 100% cover of previous bull candle).
have simillar thoughts, here is my analysis:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...47#post4963147
  • #539,600
  • Sep 18, 2011 2:47pm Sep 18, 2011 2:47pm
Quoting Magix
575 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
brandon12127