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  • #539,481
  • Edited 4:33am Sep 17, 2011 4:22am | Edited 4:33am
EUR/USD – Bias (MN): Bearish; Bias (W1): Moderately Bearish; Bias (D1): Uncertain; Bias (Overall): Uncertain



http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=398

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397
  • #539,482
  • Sep 17, 2011 5:58am Sep 17, 2011 5:58am
Hi fellow expert,

I have read this news and wondering if I should short Eur/Usd when the market starts?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/afonteve...idity-bailout/

Please let me know your view
  • #539,483
  • Sep 17, 2011 6:20am Sep 17, 2011 6:20am
Quoting forex-newbie
Hi fellow expert,

I have read this news and wondering if I should short Eur/Usd when the market starts?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/afonteve...idity-bailout/

Please let me know your view
my view is that if you need to ask, then you shouldn't be risking money in the markets..

as for the analysis piece, using absolutes such as "will" is a clear sign that the journalist is clueless..

my two cents..
  • #539,484
  • Sep 17, 2011 6:23am Sep 17, 2011 6:23am
Hi FibbinArchie,

Thanks for your reply. I am still new with forex trading .. hope to learn from you guys before starting to trade seriously.

Thanks again!
  • #539,485
  • Sep 17, 2011 6:31am Sep 17, 2011 6:31am
Quoting forex-newbie
Hi FibbinArchie,

Thanks for your reply. I am still new with forex trading .. hope to learn from you guys before starting to trade seriously.

Thanks again!
good luck on your journey...
  • #539,486
  • Sep 17, 2011 9:19am Sep 17, 2011 9:19am
Quoting forex-newbie
Hi FibbinArchie,
I am still new with forex trading .. hope to learn from you guys before starting to trade seriously.
Yes, good luck and be very, very careful.
Going live now isn't for the faint of heart OR light of wallet.
There are a lot of fundamental, technical and emotional tools needed to do this successfully.
Greed, anger and frustration will cloud your judgment when you lose and greed will always cloud your judgment when your winning which can cause you to lose.
Learning how to be successful is NOT like a history or algebra exam you can cram for and expect to be successful, Forex is ever changing and those changes can be dramatic and traumatic for a new trader.

Just to get a taste of what it could be like, I'd suggest you choose a pair and begin reading that thread at forexfactory. Start from January of 2011 and read through everything that has taken place since then. I would also follow along with your demo account to see what happened to the pair as you read. This will help you understand some of the variables involved, from the central banks to political turmoil and everything in between, that has affected just that one pair.

That's a good starting place. From one n00b to another, good luck!
More than a grain of salt is advisable
  • #539,487
  • Sep 17, 2011 9:31am Sep 17, 2011 9:31am
i got this from the monthly EURUSD charts for the long term traders:

long positions around and slightly below the 1.342x line, stops at 1.2586 or 1.1874, targets at 1.5259 or 1.6734.

or exit on bearish divergence...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #539,488
  • Edited 12:43pm Sep 17, 2011 12:26pm | Edited 12:43pm
The EU New Economic Governance Package

Sat, Sep 17 2011, 17:18 GMT

FXstreet.com (Buenos Aires) – Today, the finance Ministers of the euro zone had reached an agreement in relation to a new economic governance package, one more step forward in the path of saving the area. The package that includes five regulations and one directive, aims to improve the budgetary discipline in the member States, and strengthen the stability of the region’s economy.

The package includes new criterion on debt and deficit definitions, sanctions for countries that don’t fulfill the compliance requirements to be applied at an earlier stage, and improved transparency in the decision-making process in the EU economic governance, among others.

Although positive, as the EU is showing investors that they are ready to act unequivocally, one should wonder why it took so long. The banking crisis has been growing for almost 2 years already, while the ECB ignored it most of the first one. Will investors be actually ready to trust the euro after this?
-----------------------------------------

Attention to shift to U.S. Federal Reserve meeting

Fri Sep 16, 2011 4:41pm EDT

Reuters - While investors remain wary of the euro, they are also reluctant to take long positions in the dollar ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week, where policymakers may flag another round of quantitative easing to boost the economy. That move should weigh on the dollar and help riskier assets rally, although analysts said some market players thought "Operation Twist" was the more likely outcome. In such a scenario the Fed would buy longer-dated Treasury bonds and sell shorter-dated ones to keep rates at the longer end lower without expanding the balance sheet.
------------------------------------------

some mid-term support/resistance levels...

10 day sma (plotted here as a 60 period on the h4)..

61.8% fib fan line (drawn from last year's low to this year's high).
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  • #539,489
  • Sep 17, 2011 1:21pm Sep 17, 2011 1:21pm
This week could prove to be super volitile
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/german...-final-warning


Quoting FibbinArchie
The EU New Economic Governance Package

Sat, Sep 17 2011, 17:18 GMT

FXstreet.com (Buenos Aires) – Today, the finance Ministers of the euro zone had reached an agreement in relation to a new economic governance package, one more step forward in the path of saving the area. The package that includes five regulations and one directive, aims to improve the budgetary discipline in the member States, and strengthen the stability of the region’s economy.

The package includes new criterion on debt and deficit definitions,...
  • #539,490
  • Sep 17, 2011 1:39pm Sep 17, 2011 1:39pm
Quoting forex-newbie
Hi FibbinArchie,

Thanks for your reply. I am still new with forex trading .. hope to learn from you guys before starting to trade seriously.

Thanks again!
You won't be learning anything from what gets posted here, amigo.

THIS is where you should be learning/studying, it is FREE anyhow:

http://www.babypips.com/school/

As long as you don't understand everything they teach there, don't even try to trade , especially NOT with real money.

All the very best.
  • #539,491
  • Sep 17, 2011 1:43pm Sep 17, 2011 1:43pm
Quoting needpips
This week could prove to be super volitile
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/german...-final-warning
AND

http://www.primeminister.gov.gr/2011/09/17/6550
Notice of postponement of the trip of Prime Minister George Papandreou in the U.S.
17-09-2011 | categories: News, Prime News

PRIME MINISTER'S PRESS OFFICE
Athens, September 17, 2011

Because next week is critical for the implementation of decisions of July 21 in the eurozone and the initiatives to be undertaken by the country, Prime Minister, George Papandreou, has decided to postpone his scheduled visit to the USA.
More than a grain of salt is advisable
  • #539,492
  • Sep 17, 2011 1:54pm Sep 17, 2011 1:54pm
The euro will continue its downtrend
  • #539,493
  • Sep 17, 2011 1:57pm Sep 17, 2011 1:57pm
Ok, this will be kinda long post, with 4 charts, so i will divide it in 2 post. 1 for Weekly and daily analysis, and second for 4h and 1h

Do let's start:

In weekly basis, the situation looks still bearish:

We are still under 38.2 fibo retracment of last move. Also the 200 Ema, was only touched and slightly crossed, and this cannot be considerate as a break of it!. The volumen but was quite high, but without any breakthrough, so it only look like a retracment from last stron breakout from consolidation.
In my opinion, we will continue bearish movement this week, with posibility of coming back to 1.3500 and even further next week.

Now daily:
Same here, under 38.2 fibo, also candles could break for long the trend line of last bearish movement. We are strongly under 200 Ema, and candles formed black claud cover (I know that it is to smart numer of candles for this kind of analysis, but desperate times needs desperate mesures . As we can see also the black candle stoped and 38.2 blue fibo lvl, which is the retracment from the bull movement from may 2010. Breaking through it should mean continuation of bearish trend.

So overall I am bearish. Additionaly, the eco-fin conference annouced that the next part of financial help for Greece is uncertain and deepends on work already done in this country. And we all know that they have done sh.it, and got money till october, when the EU will decide if they will give them more money. And what does the market hate? Uncertainity!
Also beside that they didn't decide anything special for Euro, so no good news for EU currency.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #539,494
  • Sep 17, 2011 2:13pm Sep 17, 2011 2:13pm
Now 4h and 1 h analysis, which should show some future lvl.

So firstly, 4h:

Most interesting this is that green 38.2 (Latest bullish movement) and blue 38.2 (May 2010 bullish movement) are almost at the same place! And price stoped at it. So breaking it will be a stron sell signal. Also, near it is the short term trend line, so they should be both of them will should be broken in the same moment. Also after all the white bullish candles, we had to doji candles, and price fall after them. 200 ema if far at top, not even nearly touched. Also the RSI bullish trend was broken (same with 1h)!

And finally 1h:

Here i wanted to show the levels more closly! 38.2 green lvl is a the hand reach, so as trend line. After that next support is: 1.3718 and ofcourse 1.3700. After that 1.3666 () 1.3625 and 1.3583. And lastly we have the 1.35000 lvl and after that new lows! On the other hand, breaking the 1.3800 and 1.3834 at the top will change my view, and next is 200 Ema >> 1.3888 .

As i said, im bearish, due to technical and fundamental analysis, hope i won't be wrong and will help someone
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EUR.USD[1h] 17.09.11.jpg Size: 174 KB
  • #539,495
  • Sep 17, 2011 2:15pm Sep 17, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting Haqu
Now 4h and 1 h analysis, which should show some future lvl.

So firstly, 4h:

Most interesting this is that green 38.2 (Latest bullish movement) and blue 38.2 (May 2010 bullish movement) are almost at the same place! And price stoped at it. So breaking it will be a stron sell signal. Also, near it is the short term trend line, so they should be both of them will should be broken in the same moment. Also after all the white bullish candles, we had to doji candles, and price fall after them. 200 ema if far at top, not even nearly touched.

And finally...
observation- no rejection wicks this time on the test of the rising trend line, or rather price action looks as tho' demand is being absorbed..
  • #539,496
  • Edited 2:33pm Sep 17, 2011 2:22pm | Edited 2:33pm
Quoting needpips
This week could prove to be super volitile
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/german...-final-warning
could be looking at a fast channel break out post FOMC..

edit- general market sentiment is for no further qe and further complications with greece, but let's see...
  • #539,497
  • Sep 17, 2011 2:23pm Sep 17, 2011 2:23pm
Quoting needpips
This week could prove to be super volitile
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/german...-final-warning
I'll settle for 500 pips this week, but more wouldn't harm though
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #539,498
  • Sep 17, 2011 2:29pm Sep 17, 2011 2:29pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I'll settle for 500 pips this week, but more wouldn't harm though
you got the yacht and the monaco apartment yet?
  • #539,499
  • Sep 17, 2011 2:45pm Sep 17, 2011 2:45pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
could be looking at a fast channel break out post FOMC..
Speaking of that.
Here's a very detailed look at the FOMC moves since 2006 from the WSJ.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/pag...=topnav_2_3024

Might give a little insight as to what could be on the horizon.
More than a grain of salt is advisable
  • #539,500
  • Sep 17, 2011 2:53pm Sep 17, 2011 2:53pm
Quoting jabbawest
Speaking of that.
Here's a very detailed look at the FOMC moves since 2006 from the WSJ.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/pag...=topnav_2_3024

Might give a little insight as to what could be on the horizon.
Operation Twist is being touted by most market watchers as the Fed's most likely next move...

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11250...cm_ven=GOOGLEN
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