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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,121
  • Sep 14, 2011 6:23am Sep 14, 2011 6:23am
At current level I think USD/JPY is crying for an intervention, any dip below 76.30 area will definitely invite some words from BOJ officials, further lows will no doubt trigger intervention.

But does it mean that we ought to build long positions right now? Not yet I reckon. With lights out on CHF, JPY is the only kind of safe haven to pile money into, especially with the most recent wave of risk aversion going still strong, there is no reason to hurry into any long trade before even slight macro sentiment changes.

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  • #27,122
  • Sep 14, 2011 6:27am Sep 14, 2011 6:27am
Quoting Alorente
Not yet my friend. Price can poke its ugly nose over the price trendline a pip or two, but as long as the RSI trendline continues to hold and continues to climb, the odds are with the longs. Every rejection makes an upward explosion soon more and more probable. Also, if you look at the chart I ported, the THV continues to post green arrows and the slow trix has crossed the fast trix and both have turned green.

Donīt get me wrong, this thing can break but if it was going to happen, more than likely it would have happened already. I see a very...
Btw I am only typical simple technical trader mate,honestly dont really understand well about your chart,I think you should have the desired bottom prices to confirm actual break downside,
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,123
  • Sep 14, 2011 6:48am Sep 14, 2011 6:48am
Quoting sophos
At current level I think USD/JPY is crying for an intervention, any dip below 76.30 area will definitely invite some words from BOJ officials, further lows will no doubt trigger intervention.

But does it mean that we ought to build long positions right now? Not yet I reckon. With lights out on CHF, JPY is the only kind of safe haven to pile money into, especially with the most recent wave of risk aversion going still strong, there is no reason to hurry into any long trade before even slight macro sentiment changes.

Attachment
I don't think there will be intervention soon.
  • #27,124
  • Sep 14, 2011 6:55am Sep 14, 2011 6:55am
why don't you think there won't be an intervention soon?
  • #27,125
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:01am Sep 14, 2011 7:01am
@ Weekly We need break 78.00 over to confirm going upside
@ Daily If we are not breaking south "Today" I mean Invalid Break south then Possible might be form "Rising Wedge"

Oh My..Above Only My Forecast and sometimes am sick and tired with this baby,Better Focus on Weekly
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,126
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:02am Sep 14, 2011 7:02am
It goes down, for sure. I've just opened a trade at 76.865
  • #27,127
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:04am Sep 14, 2011 7:04am
@Abouelzelouf:

Fully agree, no intervention anytime soon. No use in throwing good money after bad, especially given the fact that European debt problems are far fom solved and possible US QE3 later this month. Intervening now would increase chances of a possible rally being sold into QE3 and still unsolved European debt problems. Remember what happened early August, sell off and drop below initial price with ease !!!

Imo, the above is what's keeping Japanese from stepping in. The US issue will probably be cleared out later this month. The European issue however .... we all know how fast these guys work. It could take months before consensus among the member countries is being reached and definitive action taken.
  • #27,128
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:11am Sep 14, 2011 7:11am
Quoting SIgurs
Fully agree. No use in throwing good money after bad, especially given the fact that European debt problems are far fom solved and possible US QE3 later this month. Intervening now would increase chances of a possible rally being sold into QE3 and still unsolved European debt problems. Remember what happened early August, sell off and drop below initial price with ease !!!

Imo, the above is what's keeping Japanese from stepping in. The US issue will probably be cleared out later this month. The European issue however .... we all know how fast these...
Thatīs what makes a market. Itīs the beauty of this game. Some of us are convinced itīs going down while others are equally convinced of the contrary. Fascinating indeed.

By the way, every minute that passes at around 76.80 without a break, makes the bullish outcome more and more probable. Especially considering that there is no Pivot Point impeding the break. S1 is at 76.83. If it was going down, it would have done it decisively already imho.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,129
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:14am Sep 14, 2011 7:14am
Quoting Alorente
Not yet my friend. Price can poke its ugly nose over the price trendline a pip or two, but as long as the RSI trendline continues to hold and continues to climb, the odds are with the longs. Every rejection makes an upward explosion soon more and more probable. Also, if you look at the chart I ported, the THV continues to post green arrows and the slow trix has crossed the fast trix and both have turned green.

Donīt get me wrong, this thing can break but if it was going to happen, more than likely it would have happened already. I see a very...
I dont see any good reason technically going for long now,but if this is going up and I need you to show us more how your system works since it seem quite in my eyes,u know that am very stupid my friends
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,130
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:15am Sep 14, 2011 7:15am
Quoting Alorente
Thatīs what makes a market. Itīs the beauty of this game. Some of us are convinced itīs going down while others are equally convinced of the contrary. Fascinating indeed.

By the way, every minute that passes at around 76.80 without a break, makes the bullish outcome more and more probable. Especially considering that there is no Pivot Point impeding the break. S1 is at 76.83. If it was going down, it would have done it decisively already imho.


u got that right + usd news are coming in 15 min..i bet those are positive then we are going to see up move towards 78 and thru it
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #27,131
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:17am Sep 14, 2011 7:17am
Quoting Alorente
Thatīs what makes a market. Itīs the beauty of this game. Some of us are convinced itīs going down while others are equally convinced of the contrary. Fascinating indeed.

By the way, every minute that passes at around 76.80 without a break, makes the bullish outcome more and more probable. Especially considering that there is no Pivot Point impeding the break. S1 is at 76.83. If it was going down, it would have done it decisively already imho.
You are correct,But I think we will get the answer in coming 20 minutes more
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,132
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:24am Sep 14, 2011 7:24am
Quoting eqshack
u got that right + usd news are coming in 15 min..i bet those are positive then we are going to see up move towards 78 and thru it
Actually positive news are good for the Euro and S&P500 but for now, it seems that bad news brings back the Risk Off trade which has been good for the dollar. Than can change though.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,133
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:30am Sep 14, 2011 7:30am
Quoting Alorente
Actually positive news are good for the Euro and S&P500 but for now, it seems that bad news brings back the Risk Off trade which has been good for the dollar. Than can change though.

bad news..lol
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #27,134
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:38am Sep 14, 2011 7:38am
Quoting Alorente
Thatīs what makes a market. Itīs the beauty of this game. Some of us are convinced itīs going down while others are equally convinced of the contrary. Fascinating indeed.

By the way, every minute that passes at around 76.80 without a break, makes the bullish outcome more and more probable. Especially considering that there is no Pivot Point impeding the break. S1 is at 76.83. If it was going down, it would have done it decisively already imho.
Imo, high time to sell and reverse to short or pick up long at support at low 76's. Jpy aint'd done appreciating.

Chartwise, looking bad on 1hr/4hr/daily and weekly. More downside to be expected unless authorities step in ;-)
  • #27,135
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:38am Sep 14, 2011 7:38am
I Closed all my long @ BE earlier since am see no good at all,I am expected more down would be come but I wont short,Lets see
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,136
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:43am Sep 14, 2011 7:43am
Quoting Alorente
By the way, every minute that passes at around 76.80 without a break, makes the bullish outcome more and more probable.
Got the news now so can't check but normally I would say the longer a price stays near a (support)-level the greater the chance it will break.
If there where fierce rejection at such a level resulting in a very short stay it would make that level strong
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,137
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:43am Sep 14, 2011 7:43am
Quoting FXMindset
I Closed all my long @ BE earlier since am see no good at all,I am expected more down would be come but I wont short,Lets see
Going long based on charts makes no sense at all as there is no reversal in sight. Going long based on the assumption that intervention is coming is risky. And that's an understatement.
  • #27,138
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:45am Sep 14, 2011 7:45am
Quoting USD-Bear
Got the news now so can't check but normally I would say the longer a price stays near a (support)-level the greater the chance it will break.
If there where fierce rejection at such a level resulting in a very short stay it would make that level strong
Fully agree ! There should be wicks at support as indication of price rejection.
  • #27,139
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:46am Sep 14, 2011 7:46am
Volume WAY up, price dropping big time!!
More than a grain of salt is advisable
  • #27,140
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:51am Sep 14, 2011 7:51am
Quoting jabbawest
Volume WAY up, price dropping big time!!
needs a lower close on next bar to be negative otherwise it could be a sell-off
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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