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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,101
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:55am Sep 14, 2011 1:55am
Quoting realjumper
What?......*you*......going long?.......welcome to the dark side
How about you mate?at weekly actually I see turn bearish coz we are breaking the three poin of trendlines here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Weekly.png Size: 29 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,102
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:12am Sep 14, 2011 2:12am
Quoting FXMindset
How about you mate?at weekly actually I see turn bearish coz we are breaking the three poin of trendlines here
Actually I'm on the sidelines at the moment. I really would like to see the PA hold above 78 before I get tempted to get into this. Not interested in shorts at all, and nothing long until 78 crumbles. There's easier money to be gained elsewhere!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,103
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:20am Sep 14, 2011 2:20am
Quoting realjumper
Actually I'm on the sidelines at the moment. I really would like to see the PA hold above 78 before I get tempted to get into this. Not interested in shorts at all, and nothing long until 78 crumbles. There's easier money to be gained elsewhere!
Sometimes this pairs looks grrrrrrr....Dont know how to describes
It looks like some big player wont give up to push this pairs going lower and lower
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,104
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:23am Sep 14, 2011 2:23am
Quoting FXMindset
Sometimes this pairs looks grrrrrrr....Dont know how to describes
It looks like some big player wont give up to push this pairs going lower and lower
From what I understand, vacated monies from the euro are flowing into USD and Yen, and if that's the case, it would account for the USDX rise and the (more or less) stagnation of the UJ pair
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,105
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:29am Sep 14, 2011 2:29am
Quoting realjumper
Actually I'm on the sidelines at the moment. I really would like to see the PA hold above 78 before I get tempted to get into this. Not interested in shorts at all, and nothing long until 78 crumbles. There's easier money to be gained elsewhere!
me too, but I'm targeting my longs at the lower spectrum atm but then I'm more a counter trend (move) trader , 76.52 and 76.32 on daily, think 76.52 will do.

D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0363.jpg Size: 103 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,106
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:32am Sep 14, 2011 2:32am
Quoting realjumper
From what I understand, vacated monies from the euro are flowing into USD and Yen, and if that's the case, it would account for the USDX rise and the (more or less) stagnation of the UJ pair
Yes,This is one of the factor also,I though the USD going higher this time at least would help this pairs going higher also but like you said..stagnation here
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,107
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:36am Sep 14, 2011 2:36am
Quoting USD-Bear
me too, but I'm targeting my longs at the lower spectrum atm but then I'm more a counter trend (move) trader , 76.52 and 76.32 on daily, think 76.52 will do.

D1:
Attachment
Yeah.......I might be tempted into a long before 78, but at the moment I can't see any reason for me to do it.....not when I can can find higher probability trades elsewhere......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,108
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:42am Sep 14, 2011 2:42am
What do you think Mr.Fosking,I am see that you are watching this thread closely
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,109
  • Sep 14, 2011 4:21am Sep 14, 2011 4:21am
USD-Bear,
Do you have any longs set up in the event that the BoJ decides to intervene?
As futile as it might be in the long term, given what may happen in Europe, something tells me it's just about time.
More than a grain of salt is advisable
  • #27,110
  • Sep 14, 2011 4:34am Sep 14, 2011 4:34am
Quoting FXMindset
What do you think Mr.Fosking,I am see that you are watching this thread closely
Yeah I'm giving the new Finance Minister some lessons in watching very closely. He's a quick learner

No trades for me on UJ, I've got the H4 chart open and keep looking at it but it's not moving.
  • #27,111
  • Sep 14, 2011 4:41am Sep 14, 2011 4:41am
Quoting jabbawest
USD-Bear,
Do you have any longs set up in the event that the BoJ decides to intervene?
As futile as it might be in the long term, given what may happen in Europe, something tells me it's just about time.
Care to tell us what that 'something' is ?
  • #27,112
  • Sep 14, 2011 4:51am Sep 14, 2011 4:51am
Quoting jabbawest
USD-Bear,
Do you have any longs set up in the event that the BoJ decides to intervene?
As futile as it might be in the long term, given what may happen in Europe, something tells me it's just about time.
No I don't, they could decide at 80 pushing the move further or at 75 being a bloody limit I do not know. We get accustomed to levels way back at 85 there were intervention rumors and 80-90% of retailers were long.
There are a lot of bastards knowing things earlier then we do and able to force PA in the false direction before the real move starts.
So I tend to trade at interesting levels such as 76.52 and 76.32 without thinking about possible interventions. I won't though enter shorts and I wouldn't mind BOJ stepping in after longing
Missing a possible intervention, ah well patience and chances never end and remember that a pair moving within an infinite channel without a trend can earn you a lot more then 1 spectacular move.....
I agree with you that as long as worldwide economic recovery remains more unlikely, BOJ actions could be expected
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,113
  • Sep 14, 2011 5:01am Sep 14, 2011 5:01am
Quoting realjumper
Yeah.......I might be tempted into a long before 78, but at the moment I can't see any reason for me to do it.....not when I can can find higher probability trades elsewhere......
Very wise decision indeed.

This pair managed to hold the 77 line for two whole days, giving the impression that the downtrend was about to change to the upside. However, facts are that:

- pair is still in a multiple year strong downtrend
- Jpy is still very much a safe haven
- Us econ is worse than Japanese
- Boj/Mof unwilling or unable to act
- European debt crises far from solved
- QE3 on US doorsteps (next FED meeting 23rd September?)
- Swissies beat them in the depreciation game
- Boj/Mof losing credibility by expressing verbal action only
- Usd gaining towards all other major currencies except towards the Jpy

To top things off, uptrend on 4hr chart is being broken. Looks like back to the low 76's for the time being, before heading to all time lows.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 140 KB
  • #27,114
  • Sep 14, 2011 5:19am Sep 14, 2011 5:19am
Quoting USD-Bear
No I don't, they could decide at 80 pushing the move further or at 75 being a bloody limit I do not know. We get accustomed to levels way back at 85 there were intervention rumors and 80-90% of retailers were long.
There are a lot of bastards knowing things earlier then we do and able to force PA in the false direction before the real move starts.
So I tend to trade at interesting levels such as 76.52 and 76.32 without thinking about possible interventions. I won't though enter shorts and I wouldn't mind BOJ stepping in after longing
Missing...
Yes exactly....while it is nice to catch the interventions......I have caught 2 so far.....it's just an added bonus and has no real bearing on the overall strategy that I have in the back of my mind.

Same as you Bear.....if I catch it, fine....if not, well that's fine too.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,115
  • Sep 14, 2011 5:22am Sep 14, 2011 5:22am
Quoting SIgurs
Very wise decision indeed.

This pair managed to hold the 77 line for two whole days, giving the impression that the downtrend was about to change to the upside. However, facts are that:

- pair is still in a multiple year strong downtrend
- Jpy is still very much a safe haven
- Us econ is worse than Japanese
- Boj/Mof unwilling or unable to act
- European debt crises far from solved
- QE3 on US doorsteps (next FED meeting 23rd September?)
- Swissies beat them in the depreciation game
- Boj/Mof losing credibility by expressing verbal action only
-...
These are very uncertain times.....you only have to look at some other pairs to see the whipsaw in action!! It's just impossible to know what's going to happen next, and given that money is flowing into USD and Yen at this time.....it almost seems silly to be contemplating trading this pair!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,116
  • Sep 14, 2011 5:25am Sep 14, 2011 5:25am
Close my long (Looks not so good) and see how thing progress till US - Tokyo Open
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,117
  • Sep 14, 2011 5:37am Sep 14, 2011 5:37am
Thanks USD-Bear. I agree with trading a consistent strategy versus catching an intervention but I like to be prepared for the possibility.
I almost talked myself out of the SNB intervention when the MoF said the Swiss were just going to have to live with a strong franc. I had a couple of longs setup for intervention but NOTHING near what they could have been for a 1.2000 peg.
Quoting SIgurs
Care to tell us what that 'something' is ?
A number of factors.
Euro crisis being one.
Noda has warmed up the PM chair and probably feels a lot of pressure to replace the SHOW with some GO.
Anger/frustration over the SNB peg to Euro.
Economic recovery less than hoped for due to yen appreciation.
A recent knowing nod from the G7 regarding unilateral intervention.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7880S620110910
Quote
While Japan said it had received G7 blessing for unilateral foreign exchange action, delegates said the issue had not really even been discussed in depth by the meeting, and the statement had simply used the wording of previous statements.
More than a grain of salt is advisable
  • #27,118
  • Sep 14, 2011 6:00am Sep 14, 2011 6:00am
USDJPY H4 is testing the RSI trendline (bottom of chart) for the umpteenth time. It tries to break it over and over, so far unsuccessfully. We will see what happens. This is really interesting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 121 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,119
  • Sep 14, 2011 6:11am Sep 14, 2011 6:11am
Quoting Alorente
USDJPY H4 is testing the RSI trendline (bottom of chart) for the umpteenth time. It tries to break it over and over, so far unsuccessfully. We will see what happens. This is really interesting.
I think we are breaking the trendlines bottom already mate? Daily,4H.1H,Weekly break all
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,120
  • Sep 14, 2011 6:18am Sep 14, 2011 6:18am
Quoting FXMindset
I think we are breaking the trendlines bottom already mate? Daily,4H.1H,Weekly break all
Not yet my friend. Price can poke its ugly nose over the price trendline a pip or two, but as long as the RSI trendline continues to hold and continues to climb, the odds are with the longs. Every rejection makes an upward explosion soon more and more probable. Also, if you look at the chart I ported, the THV continues to post green arrows and the slow trix has crossed the fast trix and both have turned green.

Donīt get me wrong, this thing can break but if it was going to happen, more than likely it would have happened already. I see a very possible rally upward this afternoon.
Observation is the path to discovery.
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