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AUD/USD

  • #33,221
  • Sep 13, 2011 9:15pm Sep 13, 2011 9:15pm
Quoting timster
Don't you love it - so many different opinions on the direction we are going - some are looking at 1.12 others .940.

For me the key points are:
- Long until the established up trend remains in tact.
- Long while the carry trade stays in place (as mentioned earlier)
- Europe problems may have been priced in.

For me looking to enter long on the dips.
RTRS-AUSTRALIAN STATS BUREAU SAYS Q2 WEIGHTED MEDIAN INFLATION NOW +0.5 PCT VS PREVIOUS +0.9 PCT
Your carry trade maybe in jeopardy
  • #33,222
  • Sep 13, 2011 9:27pm Sep 13, 2011 9:27pm
consumer sentiment giveth;

housing starts taketh away.


Regards,
  • #33,223
  • Sep 13, 2011 10:00pm Sep 13, 2011 10:00pm
Quoting lasty
RTRS-AUSTRALIAN STATS BUREAU SAYS Q2 WEIGHTED MEDIAN INFLATION NOW +0.5 PCT VS PREVIOUS +0.9 PCT
Your carry trade maybe in jeopardy
Yeah good point, however inflation is not contracting and is still for the year on the upper range of what the RBA would like it to be. So at this stage interests rates not going anywhere, and certainly there is no sign at the moment that they will be slashed!
While the US rates are medium term staying where they are, AUS will be fine.
  • #33,224
  • Sep 13, 2011 10:21pm Sep 13, 2011 10:21pm
AUD/USD @ 1.0250

Weaker inflation revised lower,poor housing starts and equities getting smashed is another recipe for risk off.
Rumoured bailout by BRICS for Greece shortlived as market "hopes" but in reality its just kicking the can down the street and sooner or later they will default..

Buyers around 1.0240-50 zone being support but once filled expect a quick race to 1.0195 support and then 1.0050 target

Long AUD crosses are finding stops especially against euro.
1.3335 important breakout point
  • #33,225
  • Sep 13, 2011 10:44pm Sep 13, 2011 10:44pm
Wow--- 170 pips straight down. I suppose I'll have to give up the ghost. Looking to exit on a bounce, or on a NY close below 0250. Either way, it stings. 0380 now looking like a tough nut to crack.

Regards,
  • #33,226
  • Sep 13, 2011 10:50pm Sep 13, 2011 10:50pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Wow--- 170 pips straight down. I suppose I'll have to give up the ghost. Looking to exit on a bounce, or on a NY close below 0250. Either way, it stings. 0380 now looking like a tough nut to crack.

Regards,
What is your average buy price? At least for the ones thats hurting?
  • #33,227
  • Sep 13, 2011 10:57pm Sep 13, 2011 10:57pm
Quoting BurgerKing
What is your average buy price? At least for the ones thats hurting?
0440, which just a short time ago seemed achievable. I'll probably lighten 1/2 the load on a bounce near 0300, and hold the other 1/2. We'll see what happens!

Regards,

this does seem a bit overdone, based on one bad quarter of housing data. Inflation is still running a bit high.
  • #33,228
  • Sep 13, 2011 11:09pm Sep 13, 2011 11:09pm
I see this going lower than the 9925 low in August, I have a target of at least 9843, maybe lower.
  • #33,229
  • Sep 13, 2011 11:20pm Sep 13, 2011 11:20pm
AUD/JPY is in the middle of beak out short with room to fall.
  • #33,230
  • Sep 13, 2011 11:25pm Sep 13, 2011 11:25pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...-yongding.html
  • #33,231
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:13am Sep 14, 2011 2:13am
Looks like a pin bar at h1 tf ..if there's confirmation might be good to buy for scalping 20 - 30 pips from 1.0190..Good Luck !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #33,232
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:20am Sep 14, 2011 2:20am
If we can get back above 0250, that should trigger some stops on weak shorts. Maybe I'll get to put my rally cap on!!!

Regards,
  • #33,233
  • Sep 14, 2011 2:28am Sep 14, 2011 2:28am
Quoting fosking
My stop is at 1.0368 -32 pips from entry.
Ah crap, wasn't my day yesterday, stopped out by 2 pips before the nice down move as expected.
Will keep an eye on it and look to re-enter if there is a setup.

AUD/USD Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #33,234
  • Edited 5:29am Sep 14, 2011 5:10am | Edited 5:29am
IMO, we have completed 5 waves down (big wave 3). We are starting big wave 4 up -> My guess: see you at ~430-450

(as wave 1 and 4 can't overlap -> we can't touch 480).

After that, take a good breakfast because we'll dine in hell...
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #33,235
  • Sep 14, 2011 7:54am Sep 14, 2011 7:54am
Quoting FX-Petra
If we can get back above 0250, that should trigger some stops on weak shorts. Maybe I'll get to put my rally cap on!!!

Regards,
Rally cap on, and turned sideways!

Regards,
  • #33,236
  • Sep 14, 2011 8:23am Sep 14, 2011 8:23am
i was hoping this to go lower to 1.0150 to enter another long. didnt happen... im in at 1.0258... crappy broker filled me there instead of 1.0250

slippage on limit buy? crappy broker

anyways rally on
  • #33,237
  • Sep 14, 2011 8:28am Sep 14, 2011 8:28am
Quoting mrbandwidth
IMO, we have completed 5 waves down (big wave 3). We are starting big wave 4 up -> My guess: see you at ~430-450

(as wave 1 and 4 can't overlap -> we can't touch 480).

After that, take a good breakfast because we'll dine in hell...

I see 475--520 I believe we are headed for retracement higher after 5 waves down-- Wave 5 was ~62% of wave 1. and now has retraced back into four.

UCAD looks like it needs to build a larger wave 2 lower before moving higher.
USGD-- hit the extended... most likely -Consolidation here for a few sessions

FWIW I have 1.6083 on the radar for GU...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #33,238
  • Sep 14, 2011 8:47am Sep 14, 2011 8:47am
Quoting FX-Petra
Rally cap on, and turned sideways!

Regards,
joining you on this one dude, 1.0207 will have me reload long
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #33,239
  • Sep 14, 2011 9:15am Sep 14, 2011 9:15am
Quoting RamsesII
joining you on this one dude, 1.0207 will have me reload long
Looks like you got your fill. I've been looking at some other charts today. The sorry, pathetic Euro has held up better over the last few days than the poor Aussie has. I know about risk aversion and all of that, but from a macro view, the Euro outperforming the Aussie is a tough pill to swallow. However, all is not lost. A/U has had an uncanny ability to rally and destroy all shorts in its wake over the last year and a half. We'll see if this is really the end of the bull run, or if it is just one more in a long line of death traps for A/U shorts.

Regards,
  • #33,240
  • Sep 14, 2011 9:26am Sep 14, 2011 9:26am
Part of being a good trader is knowing when to take your losses. I planned to close my short-term longs on a NY close below 0250. It looks like I'm going to have to face the music and close out in a few hours. SNB has screwed the pooch by pegging its currency, leaving USD as the only safe haven in town. It looks like we are in "fundamentals be dammed, full speed ahead USD buy" mode right now. I feel sure we are going to get a nice bounce, but I have to protect my capital.

Regards,
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