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AUD/USD

  • #33,201
  • Edited 9:36am Sep 13, 2011 9:32am | Edited 9:36am
AU snapped my buyorder @ 297 ... and walk away ... probably carry it to 416 ... or ... it might dump it to 252 ...
  • #33,202
  • Sep 13, 2011 9:41am Sep 13, 2011 9:41am
Quoting FX-Petra
After doing some more research, both technical and fundamental, I am looking at the following numbers:

Weekly support (for this week) comes in near 1.0115 -1.0075 area.

Sustained break below 1.0075 would bring a .9925 retest into play. This area was AGGRESSIVELY bought last time.

Let's be honest. A break below .9925 would probably trigger a $hit load of stops. Rats would be bailing fast, and there is no telling where the selling could end. We could talk about potential bottoms, but targets below .9925, at least in the near term, would just...
I wouldn't be at all surprised if we start to break some support levels either. Especially if this lower high holds.

The recent low bounced off the 0.382% Fib perfectly but if the level is to be tested again (around 0.9930) I think it could be a crucial number.
As you say stops will be sat below this level, and carry traders will get nervous.

Next significant support level I would look out for if that scenario plays out with be around 0.9400.

AUD/USD Daily
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  • #33,203
  • Sep 13, 2011 9:48am Sep 13, 2011 9:48am
This move down has to do with risk aversion, not intrest rates. At some point, the market will settle, risk will look good again (vs today's pitiful intrest rates) and the high yeilders will start to rise. Until there is a fundamental change in the outlook of a country's intrest rates, this will not change. Now, if we sense a rate increase from US, or a decrease from Aus., then that is a fundamental change and all bets are off. As of now, I see nothing in the market fundamentally that would suggest either of those 2 things are going to happen in the near or medium term. If anything, risk is scewed towards an Aussie rate increase by Q1 next year.

That being said, I'm sure there are a lot of hedge funds that would love to see a 15%ish drop in the high yeilders by the end of the year so they could reload and start to cover their nut for next year.

Regards,
  • #33,204
  • Sep 13, 2011 9:51am Sep 13, 2011 9:51am
Quoting fosking
I wouldn't be at all surprised if we start to break some support levels either. Especially if this lower high holds.

The recent low bounced off the 0.382% Fib perfectly but if the level is to be tested again (around 0.9930) I think it could be a crucial number.
As you say stops will be sat below this level, and carry traders will get nervous.

Next significant support level I would look out for if that scenario plays out with be around 0.9400.

AUD/USD Daily
Attachment
Yes, I agree. If .0925 is breached and stops start getting hit, we could see .9400 in VERY short order. A lot of hedge funds have already covered their nut for the year with the high yeilders, so a drop to .9400 or lower would be fine by them to reload for next year.

Regards,
  • #33,205
  • Sep 13, 2011 9:56am Sep 13, 2011 9:56am
Quoting FX-Petra
That being said, I'm sure there are a lot of hedge funds that would love to see a 15%ish drop in the high yeilders by the end of the year so they could reload and start to cover their nut for next year.

Regards,
I know I'm not a Hedge Fund lol but when we started struggling around the 1.1000 level I bailed out of my long term longs which were at break even and I was just bothered about collecting my rollover.
We look to be heavily long so if we start running into the stops it could be a quick drop down.

Dunno, just my experience lol

edit: Just seen your post above
  • #33,206
  • Sep 13, 2011 9:56am Sep 13, 2011 9:56am
Quoting fosking
I wouldn't be at all surprised if we start to break some support levels either. Especially if this lower high holds.

The recent low bounced off the 0.382% Fib perfectly but if the level is to be tested again (around 0.9930) I think it could be a crucial number.
As you say stops will be sat below this level, and carry traders will get nervous.

Next significant support level I would look out for if that scenario plays out with be around 0.9400.

AUD/USD Daily
Attachment
On the upside, this pair has shown amazing ability over the last year + to defy logic and go total bull when everyone and their mother has been expecting lower. Of course, all trends must come to an end, but it is hard for me to believe that this mega bull is going to roll over without a fight. Probabilites would say we should retest the secondary top near 0800 before it gives up the ghost. We'll wait and see!!


Regards,
  • #33,207
  • Sep 13, 2011 11:23am Sep 13, 2011 11:23am
Alternate: larger a/b/c could unfold...
GU maybe in correction as well
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  • #33,208
  • Sep 13, 2011 12:17pm Sep 13, 2011 12:17pm
Quoting VennD
AU snapped my buyorder @ 297 ... and walk away ... probably carry it to 416 ... or ... it might dump it to 252 ...
Scalp long @ 297 Closed @ 344 ... looking to reenter ...
  • #33,209
  • Edited 1:25pm Sep 13, 2011 12:45pm | Edited 1:25pm
Quoting VennD
Scalp long @ 297 Closed @ 344 ... looking to reenter ...
reenter with wtever provision I've for scalping long ...
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  • #33,210
  • Sep 13, 2011 12:57pm Sep 13, 2011 12:57pm
Quoting VennD
reenter wtever provision I've for scalping long ...
ok ! closed all long scalpers @ 333 .... looking to reenter again ...
  • #33,211
  • Sep 13, 2011 2:40pm Sep 13, 2011 2:40pm
While we can't rule out more downside and with a small chance of retesting the 99's, I believe the risk is that we get strong upside movement after a little more consolidation and maybe a bit more downside. All I know is that I'll be entering long all the way down to wherever the market takes it and then continue to add longs above 1.0390 with targets 1.0760, 1.10 & 1.12 towards the end of year. That;s right 1.12!
  • #33,212
  • Sep 13, 2011 3:10pm Sep 13, 2011 3:10pm
AUD/USD @1.0315

Another test of 1.0250 zone held and a rally again towards 1.0360 where sellers are lining up at 1.0390-00.

For me AUD is struggling and there is too much weighing on its back having thought earlier that AUD was a safe haven

Another test of 1.0250 likely.

Greece faces the abyss and even former BOE advisor said there is no way out.

Until this becomes clear expect no rush into risk.. its safe asset classes if there is such a thing these days..

Good luck
  • #33,213
  • Sep 13, 2011 3:38pm Sep 13, 2011 3:38pm
Personally, the bearish sentiment push is a little overdone, especially in regards to Greece as it is more of a case of an orderly default rather than an unexpected shock. Nonetheless, I must agree that there is a lot of weight on the AUD. Not sure, but another rejection of 1.0250 and move up over 1.0375 should be the catalyst for more upside. Will the bulls allow price to get back to parity or just below? It was bought very aggresively the last time so would again present nice buying oppotunities.
  • #33,214
  • Sep 13, 2011 4:04pm Sep 13, 2011 4:04pm
Quoting lasty
Another test of 1.0250 likely.
This is what i see too, i'm hoping for a big break below 250 where i can start looking to build a long position
  • #33,215
  • Sep 13, 2011 4:20pm Sep 13, 2011 4:20pm
Quoting havaiana
This is what i see too, i'm hoping for a big break below 250 where i can start looking to build a long position
1.0050 is the next target according to some tech guys on the breach of 1.0250

Good luck and happy hunting
  • #33,216
  • Sep 13, 2011 5:01pm Sep 13, 2011 5:01pm
im looking for a buy entry on this pair.
europe crisis is fully priced in at this moment and with china to the rescue (for greece and possible italy as well), light is seen at the end of the tunnel
  • #33,217
  • Sep 13, 2011 5:35pm Sep 13, 2011 5:35pm
Well, that consumer sentiment number should take big downside out of play for a while..... unless, of course, Europe sneezes.

Regards,

ps-- a rise above 0380 should trigger stops on the weak shorts. Next stop would be 0475-0500 zone.
  • #33,218
  • Sep 13, 2011 5:50pm Sep 13, 2011 5:50pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Well, that consumer sentiment number should take big downside out of play for a while..... unless, of course, Europe sneezes.

Regards,

ps-- a rise above 0380 should trigger stops on the weak shorts. Next stop would be 0475-0500 zone.

Totally agree. A strong daily close above 0.380 would see the bulls attempt the continuation of the uptrend with 1.10 firmly in their sights.
  • #33,219
  • Sep 13, 2011 6:25pm Sep 13, 2011 6:25pm
Don't you love it - so many different opinions on the direction we are going - some are looking at 1.12 others .940.

For me the key points are:
- Long until the established up trend remains in tact.
- Long while the carry trade stays in place (as mentioned earlier)
- Europe problems may have been priced in.

For me looking to enter long on the dips.
  • #33,220
  • Sep 13, 2011 7:12pm Sep 13, 2011 7:12pm
Quoting timster
Don't you love it - so many different opinions on the direction we are going - some are looking at 1.12 others .940.

For me the key points are:
- Long until the established up trend remains in tact.
- Long while the carry trade stays in place (as mentioned earlier)
- Europe problems may have been priced in.

For me looking to enter long on the dips.

Always beware of Greeks bearing gifts...
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