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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,081
  • Sep 13, 2011 2:03pm Sep 13, 2011 2:03pm
Quoting Alorente
Yes. This is the 5th test of the bottom wall of the channel and the 12th test of the RSI trendline. I feel it is well established, BUT it must hold here if my 100+ theory is to remain viable.
This might be your key level support i think,but i dont think we can going to 100 from here ( if dont breaking support from that key level ? )
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,082
  • Sep 13, 2011 2:08pm Sep 13, 2011 2:08pm
any thoughts on when upturn could start, or what would indicated it? what is your stop loss and take profit set at?
  • #27,083
  • Sep 13, 2011 2:15pm Sep 13, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting FXMindset
This might be your key level support i think,but i dont think we can going to 100 from here ( if dont breaking support from that key level ? )
It´s difficult to say how high we could go, but the base is strong. Since it started over month ago, my THV has given 8 Buy signals (Green arrows on the chart) for only one red arrow. The descent has been steep from June 2007 from 124 to 75.9, without a meaningful correction. A 50% Fibonacci retracement of that move puts us at exactly 100.20. I expect at least a 50% retracement which is normal when a move has not corrected. It could very well be a correction to Fibonacci 61.8 which would leave us at 105.60. I believe this option has a better chance because there is very strong resistance there at the lows of 1999 and 2005. We´ll see how it plays out. This is what´s fun of technical analysis. Trying to predict the future.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,084
  • Sep 13, 2011 2:15pm Sep 13, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting Alorente
Yes. This is the 5th test of the bottom wall of the channel and the 12th test of the RSI trendline. I feel it is well established, BUT it must hold here if my 100+ theory is to remain viable.
Would highly surprise me to see this pair back holding this support around 76.75, lower highs lower lows forming on 4h chart. Moreover Jpy keeps on gaining strenght towards all Jpy related pairs.

On the sidelines for the time being, too much uncertainty for me. Can go either way, if wrong slippage can cost you a lot.

Good luck !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY4.jpg Size: 139 KB
  • #27,085
  • Sep 13, 2011 2:20pm Sep 13, 2011 2:20pm
It seems we are getting the bounce of the RSI trendline again after 6 hours of testin 76.80. It would be technically important to close above 77 today, not necessary, but it would be nice.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,086
  • Sep 13, 2011 2:24pm Sep 13, 2011 2:24pm
Another very bullish sign is that the 60 EMA has crossed above the 200 SMA for the first time in 2 months AND it is still ascending. We need price to confirm this now by rising above the 60 EMA (At 77.20 now). If that happens I will call it a trend change and will add to my long.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,087
  • Sep 13, 2011 6:00pm Sep 13, 2011 6:00pm
long 76.82 ..waited for this entry 2 weeks lolz

stop loss is 76.47
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #27,088
  • Sep 13, 2011 10:40pm Sep 13, 2011 10:40pm
Looks like they key located in here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily.png Size: 27 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,089
  • Sep 14, 2011 12:15am Sep 14, 2011 12:15am
Usd/Jpy very close to giving up small uptrend which began mid August.

World is still looking for direction and answers from EU and US politicians. Meanwhile investors are looking for shelter and buy the Jpy which is getting stronger every day. The fact that the Boj and Mof, as expected, remain on the sidelines doesn't do the currency any good.

Better to shut up and do nothing than threathening and do nothing.
Credibility is key !

Expect the Usd/Jpy to visit the all time lows due to all the above AND very weak looking chart. All imho.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 125 KB
  • #27,090
  • Sep 14, 2011 12:18am Sep 14, 2011 12:18am
Technically I am see bullish on this pair and also compare to previous low we are almost closed with the down trendlines which if we breaking that big trendlines ( Since 2007) I am believe we will going higher (Chart tells everything) but my concern is the pressure sell from the cross which will brings down effect for UJ
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily.png Size: 39 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,091
  • Sep 14, 2011 12:35am Sep 14, 2011 12:35am
Quoting FXMindset
Technically I am see bullish on this pair and also compare to previous low we are almost closed with the down trendlines which if we breaking that big trendlines ( Since 2007) I am believe we will going higher (Chart tells everything) but my concern is the pressure sell from the cross which will brings down effect for UJ

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying well inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at approximately 124.00 . There is no indication of trend reversal yet, not candlestick wise nor trendline wise.

Breaking this very strong downtrend has only chance of breaking to the upside when the Japanese decide to actually take strong action. Based on economic numbers and worldwide uncertainty, this pair could go much lower. 70 to 73 wouldn't surprise me if indeed they do not intervene.
  • #27,092
  • Sep 14, 2011 12:53am Sep 14, 2011 12:53am
Going long here at 76.85.

TP = 77.30
SL = 76.50
  • #27,093
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:03am Sep 14, 2011 1:03am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Going long here at 76.85.

TP = 77.30
SL = 76.50
How are you untie
SL at 76.75 should be reasonable since 76.80 is very well defense.If we are touch 76.50 probably we will see 75 then
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ 5M.png Size: 20 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,094
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:04am Sep 14, 2011 1:04am
Quoting FXMindset
How are you untie
If we going 76.50 probably we are going down further,SL at 76.75 should be reasonable since 76.80 is very well defense
I like that. Thank you.

SL moved to 76.75

I normally don't follow any advice from anyone on here, but I checked the support and like the better RR so I changed it.
  • #27,095
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:07am Sep 14, 2011 1:07am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I like that. Thank you.

SL moved to 76.75
Welcome But Dont blame me if your SL got hit ya
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,096
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:09am Sep 14, 2011 1:09am
Quoting FXMindset
Welcome But Dont blame me if your SL got hit ya
I never blame anyone else. I like the much lower risk at 76.75. Then I can maybe take another long again if it goes lower to next support.
  • #27,097
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:11am Sep 14, 2011 1:11am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I like that. Thank you.

SL moved to 76.75

I normally don't follow any advice from anyone on here, but I checked the support and like the better RR so I changed it.
Actually I'm going with SL @ 76.70. Like that spot better.
  • #27,098
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:14am Sep 14, 2011 1:14am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Actually I'm going with SL @ 76.70. Like that spot better.
Yah,More reasonable I think
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,099
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:26am Sep 14, 2011 1:26am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Going long here at 76.85.

TP = 77.30
SL = 76.50

What?......*you*......going long?.......welcome to the dark side
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,100
  • Sep 14, 2011 1:29am Sep 14, 2011 1:29am
Quoting realjumper
What?......*you*......going long?.......welcome to the dark side
Thank you! It's nice and cozy here in the long lounge. Hehe.
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