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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,021
  • Sep 12, 2011 9:43am Sep 12, 2011 9:43am
Quoting FXMindset
This is seem really like a failed bearish for me,lets see the daily close today
below 78.00,there is no bullish .above 75.70,there is no bearish .

for bullish ,it need a daily close price above 77.12, at least .
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #27,022
  • Sep 12, 2011 10:06am Sep 12, 2011 10:06am
Quoting FXMindset
This is seem really like a failed bearish for me,lets see the daily close today
Perhaps mr Fisher said something that gives investors the jitters, eg QE3 is unevitable. Now what would that do to the Usd/Jpy ?
  • #27,023
  • Sep 12, 2011 11:35am Sep 12, 2011 11:35am
as we see since the breaking 3 poin of daily trendline doesnt really push this pairs,high chance has form falling wedge which will prove again this is failed bearish,who knows?I am aslo dont know

below 4H chart attached

Cheers & Trade Well
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ 4H.png Size: 25 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,024
  • Sep 12, 2011 12:49pm Sep 12, 2011 12:49pm
Quoting realjumper
I don't pay too much mind to professional analysts, but I make an exception for Joel Kruger.......when he speaks, I listen:


On the strategy front, with the Swissie short trade now well on its way, we look to the next potential major mover, and this leaves us staring squarely at the Yen. We are now waiting for the currency to undergo a similar bout of selling ahead and have a hard time seeing how things won't play out this way. A few months back very few would have been able to anticipate that the more active central bank would have been...

Looks like market is already getting afraid of possible intervention ;-)

Jpy is gaining all over the boards as the G7 summit made it clear that the Japanese shouldn't expect any support from other countries.

Pulling the same trick as the Swiss did is completely out of the question. The Swiss took everyone by surprise. Confident that other leaders at the G7 summit made it crystal clear to the Japanese that such action wouldn't be appreciated and accepted. There are being left in the cold, all alone in the dark.

Market will eat 'normal' intervention raw and send it lower few days after (as we saw early August).

Bad luck, too little too late ! Looks to me they are cornered.
  • #27,025
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:27pm Sep 12, 2011 5:27pm
Quoting SIgurs
Looks like market is already getting afraid of possible intervention ;-)

Jpy is gaining all over the boards as the G7 summit made it clear that the Japanese shouldn't expect any support from other countries.

Pulling the same trick as the Swiss did is completely out of the question. The Swiss took everyone by surprise. Confident that other leaders at the G7 summit made it crystal clear to the Japanese that such action wouldn't be appreciated and accepted. There are being left in the cold, all alone in the dark.

Market will eat 'normal' intervention...
No, the G7 leaders made no objection to Japans taking action on the Yen, did you not read the link I provided? Here you go: G-7 Ends Without Objection to Yen Action

We are no longer talking about 'normal' (read Noda) intervention. Japan is cornered, you're quite right,but they have plenty to fight with. Re-read this: As such, we predict that any additional appreciation in the Yen will open the door for a major central bank reaction that equals or exceeds the one we have just seen from the SNB. The Euro/Yen cross is trading by multi-year lows and has dropped back below levels even seen at the onset of the crisis in 2008. We think that any additional upside pressures on the Yen will soon escalate pressures for the newly appointed Japanese officials to speak out on the unwanted currency strength and set the stage for a strong central bank campaign of aggressive currency intervention.

I can see by what you say that you would be surprised if Japan engaged in a SNB type intervention, or even a much stronger one......you just said so......so the element of surprise would not be lost on *you* would it? How many others would be in the same boat as you? People will be expecting 'Noda' type intervention......no one will be expecting something MUCH, MUCH stronger.....so clearly, the BOJ still has the element of surprise at their disposal.

Don't forget, we are talking about the worlds 3rd largest economy, and they have more funds available to throw at this (if they so choose) that the SNB can even dream about.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,026
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:55pm Sep 12, 2011 5:55pm
Usd/Jpy pair is Great to always buy at current levels, at least for some good quick pips gain(20, 30 or more), because what is the worse scenarion that could occur?!! collapsing to 75, that's it.. what only 200 pips?!!
Well, any trader can afford risking a possible 200 pips floating account for the bigger intervention prize after you had bought many times & have gain 20 or more pips each time

Today Buy & sell prices are: Buy 76.60/65, 76.30/35, 76.20/25 and 75.95/00 while resistance is found at 77.65/70, 77.75/80, 78.00/05 and 78.45/50
  • #27,027
  • Sep 12, 2011 6:15pm Sep 12, 2011 6:15pm
Quoting TheMoneMaker
Usd/Jpy pair is Great to always buy at current levels, at least for some good quick pips gain(20, 30 or more), because what is the worse scenarion that could occur?!! collapsing to 75, that's it.. what only 200 pips?!!
Well, any trader can afford risking a possible 200 pips floating account for the bigger intervention prize after you had bought many times & have gain 20 or more pips each time

Today Buy & sell prices are: Buy 76.60/65, 76.30/35, 76.20/25 and 75.95/00 while resistance is found at 77.65/70, 77.75/80, 78.00/05 and 78.45/50
I see how you're thinking, but that kind of thinking will get you into trouble sooner or later. You're advocating entering long, with no SL...correct?.....with the thinking that worst case scenario is a possible -200 status....yes?

If so, you're prepared to risk 200 pips for the gain of 20 or 30 pips. That's not a very nice R:R is it? Further....why would anyone risk a trade going 200 (or more) underwater? I'm certain that I have no desire to carry a -200 drawdown.......that for all we know could turn into a negative 400 or more drawdown. That's just silly.

We don't know for sure that BOJ will intervene.....and if you're going to enter a trade and risk 200 or more pips hoping that BOJ will save you.....then you're just gambling, not trading. There is no guarantee that BOJ will intervene.....there's no guarantee that they won't allow the PA to drop to 70.......There is just no way of knowing......therefore it's silly to enter a trade with the hope that BOJ will intervene and save your account from a margin call.....that's just gambling.

5c
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,028
  • Sep 12, 2011 6:32pm Sep 12, 2011 6:32pm
Quoting realjumper
I see how you're thinking, but that kind of thinking will get you into trouble sooner or later. You're advocating entering long, with no SL...correct?.....with the thinking that worst case scenario is a possible -200 status....yes?

If so, you're prepared to risk 200 pips for the gain of 20 or 30 pips. That's not a very nice R:R is it? Further....why would anyone risk a trade going 200 (or more) underwater? I'm certain that I have no desire to carry a -200 drawdown.......that for all we know could turn into a negative 400 or more drawdown. That's...

It seem that you didn't get my point. I am not saying to buy at any price and wait for intervention. My today buy price levels are clear where is appropriate to buy this pair, besides who said that I am risking 200 for 20 or 30 pips. 20, 30 or more pips I talked about are for buy orders at certian prices as of today. While if a buy order didn't get right and collapsed below, I am surely not gambling by not settting stop loss at 100 or 200 pips.
Honestly, only a crazy trader would loose money by setting a 100 or 200 pips for this pair at current level. what is 100 pips or 200?!!
Versus Usd/Jpy at 76 or 75, oh what a disaster, with Euro/Jpy & Gbp/Jpy I would not be that concerned so how with Usd/Jpy pair
A possible 200 pip drawdown would turn out to be a 500 to 1000 pips gain later on with or with no intervention because you are buying at all time historic lows.
I'll go to the worst scenario ever Usd/Jpy at 70 then what?!!
700 pips floating account even with a small 2000$ account you'll never get a margin call
Some traders must understand to stop thinking about this ridiculous set stop loss for this pair. How many times this pair reached 76 77 78 then spiked to above 80 why loose 200 or 300 if you can gain them
Really what are you afraid of with this pair?!!

Usd/Chf had hit little above 0.7000 and look where it is now 2000 pips

BOJ would be walking on the track of SNB soon, take notice that Euro/Chf near 1.2000 now so any SNB intervention would also boost yen pairs as had happened with recent SNB Intervention

Play it big stop thinking & seeing the small picture but the bigger one
  • #27,029
  • Sep 12, 2011 6:41pm Sep 12, 2011 6:41pm
Quoting TheMoneMaker
It seem that you didn't get my point. I am not saying to buy at any price and wait for intervention. My today buy price levels are clear where is appropriate to buy this pair, besides who said that I am risking 200 for 20 or 30 pips. 20, 30 or more pips I talked about are for buy orders at certian prices as of today. While if a buy order didn't get right and collapsed below, I am surely not gambling by not settting stop loss at 100 or 200 pips.
Honestly, only a crazy trader would loose money by setting a 100 or 200 pips for this pair at current...
You must be a position trader. Other one talking is either a day trader, swing trader, or scalper.

He's got a point. probably he's an investor
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #27,030
  • Sep 12, 2011 6:46pm Sep 12, 2011 6:46pm
Quoting TheMoneMaker
It seem that you didn't get my point. I am not saying to buy at any price and wait for intervention. My today buy price levels are clear where is appropriate to buy this pair, besides who said that I am risking 200 for 20 or 30 pips. 20, 30 or more pips I talked about are for buy orders at certian prices as of today. While if a buy order didn't get right and collapsed below, I am surely not gambling by not settting stop loss at 100 or 200 pips.
Honestly, only a crazy trader would loose money by setting a 100 or 200 pips for this pair at current...
Why are you being so defensive? If you want to fight.....you'll just go on my ignore list......I'm trying to understand your reasoning and maybe help you.

You seem very convinced that BOJ will intervene at or before 75. Why is that? Do you have proof that this is so? Do you know that BOJ will not let it go to (say) 70 before acting?? Who said 75 was the worst case scenario???

And yes you are gambling by not setting a stop loss.....your gambling on BOJ acting at or before 75......but hey.....they might not.....will they act at 75 or won't they?......it's a crap shoot......iow....a gamble.

However, if you're comfortable with having a 200 -700 pips drawdown, that's your business......but it isn't trading.....it's gambling.

I have no desire to carry such a huge drawdown......I'd rather trade the PA down (with a suitable SL) and then trade it back up again (with a suitable SL).....that's trading.

But you do whatever you think is best for you. Good luck
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,031
  • Sep 12, 2011 6:55pm Sep 12, 2011 6:55pm
Quoting realjumper
Why are you being so defensive? If you want to fight.....you'll just go on my ignore list......I'm trying to understand your reasoning and maybe help you.

You seem very convinced that BOJ will intervene at or before 75. Why is that? Do you have proof that this is so? Do you know that BOJ will not let it go to (say) 70 before acting?? Who said 75 was the worst case scenario???

And yes you are gambling by not setting a stop loss.....your gambling on BOJ acting at or before 75......but hey.....they might not.....will they act at 75 or won't they?......it's...
It's no single currency pair that the BOJ monitors, instead it's the basket. If you'll plot the respective levels of the majors, you'll see outside Aussie, the rest are all at or breaking the levels of the last intervention, those levels haven't been in play until the last day or two in respect to Cable and Euro...... the levels are ripe for BOJ action, if they do or not is entirely speculation, but the last collective level of intervention hasn't been approached until just this weekend.

fwiw.........

edit: the only problem with holding long term $Y's in the interest differentials, you'd be better off selling Yen and buying Aussie or something that will pay you for your time.
  • #27,032
  • Sep 12, 2011 7:01pm Sep 12, 2011 7:01pm
Quoting auxesis
It's no single currency pair that the BOJ monitors, instead it's the basket. If you'll plot the respective levels of the majors, you'll see outside Aussie, the rest are all at or breaking the levels of the last intervention, those levels haven't been in play until the last day or two in respect to Cable and Euro...... the levels are ripe for BOJ action, if they do or not is entirely speculation, but the last collective level of intervention hasn't been approached until just this weekend.

fwiw.........
Correct.......BOJ *has* to monitor a basket.....and the two majors in that are the USD and Euro simply because they are both huge trading partners of Japan.

Japan might intervene in the next 5 minutes.......might be in 5 weeks time.....might not happen at all. No one knows

Much of Japans manufacturing is off shore now, due to the increasing Yen and the concessions under Noda help small export businesses. Those concessions have not yet even got off the ground, they are only 3 or 4 weeks old.

I have no idea what BOJ is thinking, and their threatened intervention is in the back of my mind, but I'm trading despite the threat, not because of it.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,033
  • Sep 12, 2011 7:27pm Sep 12, 2011 7:27pm
Quoting realjumper
Why are you being so defensive? If you want to fight.....you'll just go on my ignore list......I'm trying to understand your reasoning and maybe help you.

You seem very convinced that BOJ will intervene at or before 75. Why is that? Do you have proof that this is so? Do you know that BOJ will not let it go to (say) 70 before acting?? Who said 75 was the worst case scenario???

And yes you are gambling by not setting a stop loss.....your gambling on BOJ acting at or before 75......but hey.....they might not.....will they act at 75 or won't they?......it's...

LOL. I am not beng defensive neither starting a fight..time for that..lol
but just trying to help bullish traders of those pairs not loose money for nothing..
Go away from this ignore list threat, really not concerned about that but you'll only be running to the front by that..
Yes. stop loss for all pairs is found but not always as currently for yen & was for Chf pairs and even now for Euro/Chf pair
It seem that you are a small pips gain target trader mostly a short term so you must set a stop loss because you gain small so your stop loss must be small while a medium or long term trader would not be concerned about 200 or at worst 700 pips drawdown if ever Usd/Jpy go to 70 if it reach 75 at first.
So this is forex trading with certain strategy not gambling as you suggest.

You doubt that BOJ would intervene, well be sure it would for economical reasons you must well understand.. and it only concern would be the Usd/Jpy pair at first as SNB the Euro/Chf pair because most exports are toward the US meaning it would be buying Dollars, but that would surely benefit all yen pairs..
Intervention Date is yet not clear but when it is, I'll try helping you by informing you

Good Luck
  • #27,034
  • Sep 12, 2011 7:42pm Sep 12, 2011 7:42pm
Quoting TheMoneMaker
LOL. I am not beng defensive neither starting a fight..time for that..lol
but just trying to help bullish traders of those pairs not loose money for nothing..
Go away from this ignore list threat, really not concerned about that but you'll only be running to the front by that..
Yes. stop loss for all pairs is found but not always as currently for yen & was for Chf pairs and even now for Euro/Chf pair
It seem that you are a small pips gain target trader mostly a short term so you must set a stop loss because you gain small so your stop loss must...
You don't know my trading style, so your assumption is redundant.

I didn't say that I doubt BOJ would intervene.......perhaps you could point out where I said that? In fact I said that I had no idea what BOJ was thinking, and I have no idea when or if they would intervene. I also said that I am trading despite any intervention threat, not *because of it*.

If you're happy to let your trades go 200 or more underwater......fine. It is of no consequence to me.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,035
  • Sep 12, 2011 7:53pm Sep 12, 2011 7:53pm
Quoting TheMoneMaker
LOL. I am not beng defensive neither starting a fight..time for that..lol
but just trying to help bullish traders of those pairs not loose money for nothing..
Go away from this ignore list threat, really not concerned about that but you'll only be running to the front by that..
Yes. stop loss for all pairs is found but not always as currently for yen & was for Chf pairs and even now for Euro/Chf pair
It seem that you are a small pips gain target trader mostly a short term so you must set a stop loss because you gain small so your stop loss must...

I think you two are comparing apples and oranges and you are both right. For a short term trade, 200 pips is too much drawdown, but for a buy and hold strategy, 200 pips is not out of the ordinary. You can make money both ways. I hold 10 contracts long in USDJPY and day trade 10 contracts which I make myself exit before the end of the day. The target prices on both of these are completely different and the risked capital is also very different. I do the same on EURUSD but on the short side. Both systems work and both complement each other. It is easier to day trade if you know the long term charts well, which you must study for your longer term positions.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,036
  • Sep 12, 2011 7:59pm Sep 12, 2011 7:59pm
Quoting Alorente
I think you two are comparing apples and oranges and you are both right. For a short term trade, 200 pips is too much drawdown, but for a buy and hold strategy, 200 pips is not out of the ordinary. You can make money both ways. I hold 10 contracts long in USDJPY and day trade 10 contracts which I make myself exit before the end of the day. The target prices on both of these are completely different and the risked capital is also very different. I do the same on EURUSD but on the short side. Both systems work and both complement each other....
You are possibly correct. I am looking for long tern entries here, and EJ and UC as well.......in none of those cases will I entertain no stop loss, and neither will I entertain drawdowns of 200+ pips. To me, that just signifies poor entries.

I would be interested to see some TA from TheMoneMaker, rather that just talk.......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,037
  • Sep 12, 2011 8:14pm Sep 12, 2011 8:14pm
Quoting realjumper
You are possibly correct. I am looking for long tern entries here, and EJ and UC as well.......in none of those cases will I entertain no stop loss, and neither will I entertain drawdowns of 200+ pips. To me, that just signifies poor entries.

I would be interested to see some TA from TheMoneMaker, rather that just talk.......
OK. IŽll give you an example: I entered my 10 contracts EURUSD position at 1.4350 3 weeks ago. If I had set a tight stop loss on it I would have been stopped out not once, but up to 5 times (If I had repeatedly reentered the trade, which I would have done because the technicals still were pointing south very clearly). At one point, on 8/29, I was down 200 pips but the technicals continued to look great for my trade. I still hold that trade for an 800 pip profit so far and intend to continue to hold until the technicals tell me to get out. I see potential for 1.17 EURUSD in the next 4 months. I also day trade 10 contracts, only on the short side which have been doing great also. For these, there is a tight stop because the profit achievable during the day is relatively small. So there are many ways to skin a cat ...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,038
  • Sep 12, 2011 8:30pm Sep 12, 2011 8:30pm
Quoting Alorente
OK. IŽll give you an example: I entered my 10 contracts EURUSD position at 1.4350 3 weeks ago. If I had set a tight stop loss on it I would have been stopped out not once, but up to 5 times (If I had repeatedly reentered the trade, which I would have done because the technicals still were pointing south very clearly). At one point, on 8/29, I was down 200 pips but the technicals continued to look great for my trade. I still hold that trade for an 800 pip profit so far and intend to continue to hold until the technicals tell me to get out. I see...
Indeed there are, and I agree with you up to a point. However, what the poster was saying that started this discussion off was that he thought it was good to go long at these level for a "20 or 30 pips"......with no SL.....because "BOJ will step in by 75". Excuse me, but "20 or 30" pips gain, for a possible 200+ drawdown is not the sign of a long term trader. It is also not indicative of a sensible trader. It is indicative of a gambler. Now he is trying to muddy the water by saying that he is a long term trader and as such, this type of drawdown is nothing.

A "20 - 30 pip" gain is not the sign of a long term trader. You can read his original post here, and decide if you think he was speaking of long tern strategy or not.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,039
  • Sep 12, 2011 8:36pm Sep 12, 2011 8:36pm
Quoting realjumper
Indeed there are, and I agree with you up to a point. However, what the poster was saying that started this discussion off was that he thought it was good to go long at these level for a "20 or 30 pips"......with no SL.....because "BOJ will step in by 75". Excuse me, but "20 or 30" pips gain, for a possible 200+ drawdown is not the sign of a long term trader. It is also not indicative of a sensible trader. It is indicative of a gambler. Now he is trying to muddy the water by saying that he is a long term trader and as such, this type of drawdown...
You are right there. For a long term trade to be viable, there has to be at least a 3 to 1 profit to risk potential. I prefer 5 to 1, but it depends on the time I expect to hold the position.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,040
  • Sep 12, 2011 8:55pm Sep 12, 2011 8:55pm
http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...9p4EfMrq0wRxzQ it takes a psychic ball to really know what BOJ is going to do anything next. Next we look into the EU and USA , some say they are doom for sure while others like to quote from history books.
i have stopped having any personal opinion or biased towards any side of the story, i have decided to throw away my emotions and continue gump trading based on the PA so i will be at the ride side of the field when something happens.
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