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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #27,001
  • Sep 12, 2011 3:37am Sep 12, 2011 3:37am
Quoting Alorente
Trend changes are always established on the RSI, MACD, THV. etc much before they show in price. If you wait for price to show trend, you will lose most profit potential. The big profits are made by betting before it shows in price, with a stop loss, of course.
I think most people have their own way of identifying the trend change.....for me, the trend has yet to change
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,002
  • Edited 3:58am Sep 12, 2011 3:42am | Edited 3:58am
Quoting Alorente
I donīt make my trading decision based on price levels. I listen to what my indicators tell me. Sometimes when in doubt I actually turn off the price bars. The picture is much clearer when you look at your favorite indicators alone. As a matter of fact, I traded for several years without price bars and did very well. They remove a lot of the stress inherent in the price action and volatility. So, in a way, what I am saying is that I donīt use normal stop losses based on price. I set alarms on my indicators. They never lie to me.
I hope you are right with your own analysis but if this moves as not your expected,I am hope you will keep coming and post in here
Just Because its interesting
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,003
  • Sep 12, 2011 3:46am Sep 12, 2011 3:46am
Quoting Alorente
I donīt make my trading decision based on price levels. I listen to what my indicators tell me. Sometimes when in doubt I actually turn off the price bars. The picture is much clearer when you look at your favorite indicators alone. As a matter of fact, I traded for several years without price bars and did very well. They remove a lot of the stress inherent in the price action and volatility. So, in a way, what I am saying is that I donīt use normal stop losses based on price. I set alarms on my indicators. They never lie to me.
What a great way to focus. Its good to have a lot of trust in your trading system.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #27,004
  • Sep 12, 2011 3:50am Sep 12, 2011 3:50am
Quoting bumapatria
lets hope this thread doesnt become a EUR/USD thread. Hot-damn, there's a really damn good pro 'cloggie' im sure you all heard him, and shudder at him, and he really insults beginners and novices alike. He calls it entertainment. Lets hope the stars here are much better than that.
He is not insult you,he just try teach you in a harder way otherwise you wont be wake up and learn from mistakes
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,005
  • Sep 12, 2011 3:51am Sep 12, 2011 3:51am
still wait and see.....

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  • #27,006
  • Sep 12, 2011 3:56am Sep 12, 2011 3:56am
Quoting FXMindset
He is not insult you,he just try teach you in a harder way otherwise you wont be wake up and learn from mistakes
Hey hell im okay with it cause he corrected me nicely (less harsh). Its the other guys. You know, the scalpers who try to go long a few days ago, when EUR/USD was like panic selling?
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #27,007
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:13am Sep 12, 2011 4:13am
I think the key might be lying in 76.30
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,008
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:18am Sep 12, 2011 4:18am
Quoting FXMindset
I think the key might be lying in 76.30
eying that level too (+76.50)
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,009
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:26am Sep 12, 2011 4:26am
Quoting USD-Bear
eying that level too (+76.50)
I am hope that 2 level strong enough to hold otherwise what i am see is big huge down bro especially if the daily close below 77.58
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,010
  • Sep 12, 2011 4:55am Sep 12, 2011 4:55am
rarely trade this pair - but with EU/GU extreme pa - had a look and took 7685 long , no sweat >7670 sl 7650 ... this is what I'm looking at :
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  • #27,011
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:15am Sep 12, 2011 5:15am
Long, target 77.80
Quoting adianto
still wait and see.....

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" you can't consume more than you produce "
  • #27,012
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:21am Sep 12, 2011 5:21am
Quoting realjumper
I think most people have their own way of identifying the trend change.....for me, the trend has yet to change
You are correct. Many roads lead to Rome. If there is one thing Iīve learned in this game is humility. There is no ONE right way. Heck, I have a friend trader who is very successful and doesnīt look at charts. He is all fundamentals and a great dose of intuition.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,013
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:24am Sep 12, 2011 5:24am
Quoting bumapatria
What a great way to focus. Its good to have a lot of trust in your trading system.
Thanks. Trading is not too difficult. What is difficult is controlling your emotions or, should I say, not letting your emotions interfere with what you know has to be done. Any tool that helps you do that, goes a long way towards making you a more successful trader.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,014
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:28am Sep 12, 2011 5:28am
Quoting Alorente
You are correct. Many roads lead to Rome. If there is one thing Iīve learned in this game is humility. There is no ONE right way. Heck, I have a friend trader who is very successful and doesnīt look at charts. He is all fundamentals and a great dose of intuition.
Exactly right. I get upset when people posts things like 'Short at 76.50', with nothing further to add. I want to see a chart with reasons why the trade was taken.....and I want to see that shortly after the trade was taken.....not 4 hours later.....anyone can do that! I may not agree with a persons reasons, but I don't have to, they aren't trading for me!! I don't really care whether the trade was successful or whether it stopped out......I still want to know.....that's how we learn and we keep ourselves honest.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,015
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:30am Sep 12, 2011 5:30am
Quoting FXMindset
I hope you are right with your own analysis but if this moves as not your expected,I am hope you will keep coming and post in here
Just Because its interesting
So far so good. Price bounced off the RSI H4 ascending trendline right on time.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,016
  • Sep 12, 2011 5:58am Sep 12, 2011 5:58am
Quoting Alorente
So far so good. Price bounced off the RSI H4 ascending trendline right on time.
you might be correct if this pattern is form
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #27,017
  • Sep 12, 2011 6:13am Sep 12, 2011 6:13am
I don't pay too much mind to professional analysts, but I make an exception for Joel Kruger.......when he speaks, I listen:


On the strategy front, with the Swissie short trade now well on its way, we look to the next potential major mover, and this leaves us staring squarely at the Yen. We are now waiting for the currency to undergo a similar bout of selling ahead and have a hard time seeing how things won't play out this way. A few months back very few would have been able to anticipate that the more active central bank would have been the SNB. Given the super aggressive measures taken by the Swiss central bank to depreciate their local currency, we can only expect to see similar measures taken by a Bank of Japan whose economy might arguably be even more at risk to currency appreciation than Switzerland.

The Bank of Japan name is synonymous with currency intervention and the central bank has plenty of ammunition to throw at the problem when they feel it is necessary. Given that the Yen is also trading just off record highs against the buck and some other major currencies, we do not suspect that the central bank will welcome the additional spillover flows into the Yen resulting from the Swiss depreciation. While it is true that the current deteriorative state of the global economy should funnel more money into the Yen on the liquidation of risk correlated assets, the Japanese Yen is by no means a safe haven currency given the equally uncertain Japanese economic outlook and natural benefit to the economy in having a weaker currency.

As such, we predict that any additional appreciation in the Yen will open the door for a major central bank reaction that equals or exceeds the one we have just seen from the SNB. The Euro/Yen cross is trading by multi-year lows and has dropped back below levels even seen at the onset of the crisis in 2008. We think that any additional upside pressures on the Yen will soon escalate pressures for the newly appointed Japanese officials to speak out on the unwanted currency strength and set the stage for a strong central bank campaign of aggressive currency intervention. We may not see this play out over the coming sessions, but keep a close watch for our outlook to materialize over the coming days and weeks.

Joel Kruger
Currency Strategist
DailyFX Research Team
[email protected]
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,018
  • Sep 12, 2011 6:21am Sep 12, 2011 6:21am
Quoting realjumper
I don't pay too much mind to professional analysts, but I make an exception for Joel Kruger.......when he speaks, I listen:


On the strategy front, with the Swissie short trade now well on its way, we look to the next potential major mover, and this leaves us staring squarely at the Yen. We are now waiting for the currency to undergo a similar bout of selling ahead and have a hard time seeing how things won't play out this way. A few months back very few would have been able to anticipate that the more active central bank would have been...
I agree with every one of his words. Maybe it will be this intervention the "reason" that will build the steep right side of the saucer on the H4 that I expect.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #27,019
  • Sep 12, 2011 6:25am Sep 12, 2011 6:25am
Quoting Alorente
I agree with every one of his words. Maybe it will be this intervention the "reason" that will build the steep right side of the saucer on the H4 that I expect.
And this statement from the G7 meeting explains (to me anyway) why the G7 don't have a problem if Japan wants to intervene on it's own.....I have bolded the pertinent bit:

Stark’s nominated successor, Deputy German Finance Minister Joerg
Asmussen, “is totally able to fulfill the job,” since “he knows
everything there is to know about European affairs including monetary
affairs,” Constancio asserted.

The recent G7 meeting resulted in “an expression of willingness to
achieve” coordinated action on global growth, although “no concrete
details have yet been finalized,” he said.

Central banks in the past have coordinated actions, he noted, “but
the situation now is different” from post-Lehman and “each one of course has to take into consideration the exact situation of the country or area for which it is responsible.”
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #27,020
  • Sep 12, 2011 9:37am Sep 12, 2011 9:37am
This is seem really like a failed bearish for me,lets see the daily close today
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
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