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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #26,941
  • Edited 11:09am Sep 9, 2011 10:57am | Edited 11:09am
Quoting Marvabu
Germany has proposed a plan in place in case Greece defaults. They apparently want to shield banks. Should this event occur people will seek safe havens in order to protect capital.

Question is which safe havens are left. The Euro has huge debt problems, the Swiss central bank is very motivated and willing to take action in order to prevent the Chf from appreciating. So whats left on the table ? In my opinion the Jpy is still being considered as being a safe haven, Eur is heading towards all time lows as we speak, the Gbp is just close to its...
sharp view Marvabu, saw it just too late otherwise I wouldn't have posted!
Worth my "V"
A sell off would make me position before the weekend, gl
Maybe EJ even better now....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,942
  • Edited 9:27pm Sep 9, 2011 5:58pm | Edited 9:27pm
Quoting USD-Bear
too bold, bugger trade, but he, USDX pierces through all my resistances, with UJ lagging so far behind chances of acceleration are great!

ps, rumours Greece will default today/weekend, don't know how this would correlate with UJ though....
My UJ got stopped at BE while I was asleep!! It's ok....it's been a reasonable week and I just couldn't stay awake any more to baby sit the trade. Pity I closed the EU trade so early, but thems the breaks!

I have noticed with interest that you use the USDX to enter trades sometimes. I'm a little bit different in that I enter trades irrespective of USDX (unless the trade is totally counter to USDX of course), but I use USDX to try and see whether the trade entered has a chance of becoming a good earner...long term.

Regarding Greece.......here is a post from April 2010......just after the first Greece default scare. Some of the newer posters here may not have seen this, but, how utterly true this is proving to be.....and.....Greece should have been cast off way back then.

Anyway.......enjoy:

A Harsh Reality for the European Union
By Jeff Clark

Dear European Union and International Monetary Fund,

Please do the world a favor and allow Greece to default on its debt. It's going to happen anyway, and it would be better if it happened sooner rather than later.

When you loan money to friends, two things will happen

You'll lose the money and you'll lose the friendship.

Please keep this in mind as you consider your loan to Greece. I've made four such loans to friends during my lifetime, and all of them produced the same result.

The recipient is thankful at first, and promises to reform his/her/its spendthrift ways. And for a short period of time, it seems to work. The borrower stops going out to expensive dinners, asks the housekeeper to come just once each week, and cuts back on the Tiffany and Nordstrom shopping sprees.

But in reality, it's hard to reduce your own standard of living.

As long as a lifeline is available, reform is impossible. It's just too hard to say "NO" to the forces in place for so long that have actually caused the fiscal breakdown. The easy solution is to say "YES" and continue the spendthrift, irresponsible ways that have brought Greece to the brink of bankruptcy.

Your money will provide a temporary relief. But it's the equivalent of throwing good money after bad.

Greece will keep spending the way it has all these years, and when it burns through the money you've provided, it'll ask for more. Moreover, the Greek politicians will rationalize their expenses and make you feel like the bad guy for not lending them even more money. After all, you have it and they don't. So you ought to send more money their way.

But here's the unfortunate fact of life...

The motivation for change only happens when someone stares into the eyes of his hungry children and realizes they'll die if they don't do something, anything, to put food on the table.

Yes, it's harsh. But it's reality. And it's a reality that hasn't been recognized for much of the past 20 years. Your generosity will be gratefully received at first. But then you'll be declared the bad guy when it comes time to perform on the loan.

You can lend the money if you want to. It'll provide a temporary backstop and a basis upon which to build the economy if Greece chooses to implement the necessary reforms. Based on my experience, though, it's wasted money.

It's wasted money on Greece. It'll be wasted money on Portugal, Italy, and Spain when they ask for it as well. And it'll be wasted money when the U.S. government steps up to feed at the trough.

The best thing you can do now is to say no to Greece. Tell them they're responsible for their own actions. They need to bite the bullet, cut the expenses, and lower their standard of living.

No, you won't be hailed as the good guy and as the savior of financial reform. In fact, by denying a bailout you'll likely be demonized.

But your kids will thank you for it. They'll have an opportunity to spend time as innovators and developers of economic prosperity, rather than slaves to the state of indentured servitude.

So here's the choice you have to make...

Do you loan Greece 30 billion euros with the understanding its people will continue along the path of working 30-hour weeks, retiring at the age of 50, and receiving compensation for contributing nothing to the economic environment? Or do you demand some sort of economic payment for your hardship of making the loan?

I demanded economic payments in all four of the loans I made to my friends. I was disappointed in every instance.

Somehow, I expect you, the IMF and the European Union, to experience the same fate.


Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,943
  • Sep 10, 2011 7:33am Sep 10, 2011 7:33am
http://snap.windin.com/ns/findsnap.p...03353&ad=0&t=1


Foreign news, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on September 10 in Europe and the U.S. debt to increase the global economic uncertainty. Japanese Finance Minister Ann live Chun also said that Japan would take decisive measures to deal with speculative movements in exchange rates, and hope G7 understand Japan's position in the foreign exchange market.

A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #26,944
  • Sep 10, 2011 8:08am Sep 10, 2011 8:08am
Quoting geniusztc
http://snap.windin.com/ns/findsnap.p...03353&ad=0&t=1
would take decisive measures to deal with speculative movements in exchange rates, and hope G7 understand Japan's position in the foreign exchange market.
What is decisve measures to deal with speculative movements? Hope the G7 understands? Apparently the G7 is unwilling or unable to assist so Japan will do its own type of intervention, maybe something radical? Other then dumping Yen and flooding the market, what would they do that would tic off the G7
Never been vouched
  • #26,945
  • Sep 10, 2011 9:20am Sep 10, 2011 9:20am
USD/JPY – Bias (W1): Bearish; Bias (D1): Bearish

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=397
  • #26,946
  • Sep 10, 2011 6:42pm Sep 10, 2011 6:42pm
Quoting realjumper
My UJ got stopped at BE while I was asleep!! It's ok....it's been a reasonable week and I just couldn't stay awake any more to baby sit the trade. Pity I closed the EU trade so early, but thems the breaks!

I have noticed with interest that you use the USDX to enter trades sometimes. I'm a little bit different in that I enter trades irrespective of USDX (unless the trade is totally counter to USDX of course), but I use USDX to try and see whether the trade entered has a chance of becoming a good earner...long term.

Regarding Greece.......here...
great view on peoples mentality, fully concur if help is not offered at economic prices it's a wast of money.
Look at Italy, the first thing you see on TV are protests, anger and violent behavior. Debt issue can only be solved be accepting a decrease in prosperity/wealth and modern world is way too democratic today to force it on people. The decoupling of politics at one side against real economy at the other side makes people think they are not responsible.
I'm afraid things will get a lot worse before real solutions are in sight.

Yes, for my USD-Pairs USDX has become a major indicator for initiating trades. EUR/USD is my main trading pair and what I have found is:
1. levels (horizontal ones) are far more important and predictive then patterns/channels/indicators etc.
2. for trading EUR/USD levels on USDX seem to be a lot clearer and more predictive compared to the pair itself.
So lately almost all my EU trades are based on presumed USDX levels.
It appears and remains subject to more study that trading that way in intermediate moves are very successful, enables narrow stops and by nature produce fast results. Predicting large possible trend changes it does not supply because those levels are often formed by just one other top or bottom level, while acting on several historic tops/bottoms makes the trade less riskier.
UJ is not a perfect partner for USDX level predictions because of the safe haven nature of the Yen as described above. On the other hand, if large moves in USDX do not lead to moves of UJ (safe haven issues in play) my experience is they will follow later, after all historic lows at USDX with historic lows at UJ at the same time, are the prove in the pudding.
I've burned almost al indicators and strategies behind me, it's strange on the long run the simplest way of operating tend to be the best for me together with a little bit of fundamental theory.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,947
  • Sep 10, 2011 7:23pm Sep 10, 2011 7:23pm
Till after bernanke comes in on his white horse and bails out the world(temporarily) with more USD devaluation on the 20th the best play is def buying the UJ...

Rest assured though Ill be fading the move after intervention and as the FOMC approaches

10 yr UST's hitting 60 year lows, horrible unemployment data everyone seems to be forgetting about, VIX >40, Gold still under 2K with plenty of room topside, consistantly terrible consumer confidence amongst other terrible data doesnt really lead me to be a long term USD bull...
  • #26,948
  • Sep 11, 2011 1:44am Sep 11, 2011 1:44am
Quoting USD-Bear
great view on peoples mentality, fully concur if help is not offered at economic prices it's a wast of money.
Look at Italy, the first thing you see on TV are protests, anger and violent behavior. Debt issue can only be solved be accepting a decrease in prosperity/wealth and modern world is way too democratic today to force it on people. The decoupling of politics at one side against real economy at the other side makes people think they are not responsible.
I'm afraid things will get a lot worse before real solutions are in sight.

Yes, for my...
I don't mean to sound callous, but Greece should have been left to default the first time around......not not let that happen has caused all this extra damage, that might have been avoided had Greece been the 'example' to the other EU members.....but no.....Trichet et al with their pigheaded stubborness wanted to prove that the EZ and EU was in 'safe hands' and that they could 'handle' things......what many of us feared is now coming true.....lol.....you don't lend more money to people who already can't pay their bills!!!

Thanks for explaining your USDX theory.....it certainly makes sense.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,949
  • Sep 11, 2011 3:47pm Sep 11, 2011 3:47pm
Down 0.35% in premarket. G7 meeting was lackluster, lots of blabla statements, still leaving Jpy as one of the few safe havens left.

Bof/Mof did too little too late, time to face a stronger Jpy as a direct result of loss of credibility. All imo.

http://fr.easy-forex.com/EU/currencyratespage.aspx
  • #26,950
  • Sep 11, 2011 3:49pm Sep 11, 2011 3:49pm
Quoting SIgurs
Down 0.35% in premarket. G7 meeting was lackluster, lots of blabla statements, still leaving Jpy as one of the few safe havens left.

Bof/Mof did too little too late, time to face a stronger Jpy as a direct result of loss of credibility. All imo.

http://fr.easy-forex.com/EU/currencyratespage.aspx
You're such a biased perma-short Everytime I read a very bearish USD/JPY post, I say hmm must be SiGurs, then I check the name and I'm usually right ;D
  • #26,951
  • Sep 11, 2011 8:06pm Sep 11, 2011 8:06pm
78.50/65 should limit the upside then will resume
the downtrend again.... I have a feeling that the
historical low is not done yet......
  • #26,952
  • Sep 11, 2011 8:11pm Sep 11, 2011 8:11pm
Quoting Demon Bane
78.50/65 should limit the upside then will resume
the downtrend again.... I have a feeling that the
historical low is not done yet......
agree with u
  • #26,953
  • Sep 11, 2011 9:02pm Sep 11, 2011 9:02pm
Boj got the go ahead from the G7 to act unilaterally if not with them. They will most likely intervene and then defend a base price like the swiss did.
  • #26,954
  • Sep 11, 2011 9:17pm Sep 11, 2011 9:17pm
Quoting werido
Boj got the go ahead from the G7 to act unilaterally if not with them. They will most likely intervene and then defend a base price like the swiss did.
Hey Weirdo , do you have a link to this G7 go ahead statement?
Thanks
Never been vouched
  • #26,955
  • Sep 11, 2011 9:22pm Sep 11, 2011 9:22pm
Quoting werido
Boj got the go ahead from the G7 to act unilaterally if not with them. They will most likely intervene and then defend a base price like the swiss did.
Intervention cannot be rules out, but I think they are finally getting the message that intervention rarely works. If Japan were to state a 'line in the sand' to defend, they would have to do what the Swiss will have to do......spend large amounts of money defending. Whether the Swiss will be able to achieve what they couldn't last time they tried this, time will tell.

For the Japanese to do it it's a different kettle of fish. Japan certainly has the means to buy a shitload of dollars to defend their 'line in the sand', but that will have the effect of pushing up the USD, and I don't imagine that Uncle Sam would be too happy about that.

It's going to be interesting over the next few weeks.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,956
  • Sep 11, 2011 9:37pm Sep 11, 2011 9:37pm
Quoting iono
Hey Weirdo , do you have a link to this G7 go ahead statement?
Thanks
G-7 Ends Without Objection to Yen Action
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,957
  • Sep 11, 2011 10:45pm Sep 11, 2011 10:45pm
Quoting realjumper
G-7 Ends Without Objection to Yen Action
Yeah, it was more lack of objection that I was intending to convey which is meaningful given that they all didn't seem too happy about their last intervention at the time when it happened. They understand now that Japan has to do what it must. At the conference, they didn't attack Japan's last intervention so without their outright objections it would seem that when Japan intervenes again, they won't all come out against it or disapprove when it happens and that might its self mean a steadier effect.

p.s thanks realjumper for posting the link
  • #26,958
  • Sep 11, 2011 11:03pm Sep 11, 2011 11:03pm
I don't think the whole G7 is exactly happy with Japanese intervention and it's not like they all agreed to a specific timeline or amount that the boj should intervene at, but Japan did bring it up and they didn't object. That's why I would expect it to happen again. This time though they see how the chf intervention is holding up...much better than theirs, so I think they will defend a limit. Right now they are doing more quantitative easing locally, but this is what the swiss tried and that didn't work which is what prompted them to intervene in the fx.
  • #26,959
  • Sep 11, 2011 11:21pm Sep 11, 2011 11:21pm
Quoting Demon Bane
78.50/65 should limit the upside then will resume
the downtrend again.... I have a feeling that the
historical low is not done yet......
I concur.
  • #26,960
  • Sep 11, 2011 11:29pm Sep 11, 2011 11:29pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I concur.
Oh no...not you again.....I was contemplating a long until you showed up!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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