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EURUSD

  • #536,821
  • Sep 11, 2011 6:51am Sep 11, 2011 6:51am
this maybe
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  • #536,822
  • Sep 11, 2011 7:29am Sep 11, 2011 7:29am
Trichet promised price stability.
  • #536,823
  • Sep 11, 2011 7:41am Sep 11, 2011 7:41am
Quoting AlbertR
Trichet promised price stability.
and can we trust ??
  • #536,824
  • Sep 11, 2011 7:42am Sep 11, 2011 7:42am
Quoting rokokdaun
and can we trust ??
Policy - Bastards
  • #536,825
  • Sep 11, 2011 8:33am Sep 11, 2011 8:33am
Quoting The Fool
you don't understand my point:

Commercials take futures and options positions as a hedge primarily, so those positions are considered counterindicative.

In other words, a heavy flow to long positions in the Commercials is a clear signal to short.
okay now i got it, I've been trading continuously for 4 years now and from what I understand is that when I'm holding a short position lets say on gold and I'm expecting it to go higher, I would hedge it with a long position, I don't hedge because I'm expecting it to further decline.

however, few years ago i read this article http://articles.mql4.com/867 and it takes what you said as an argument, he did a VERY complicated indicator based on cot data, and created an EA and lunched a test, his results were interesting, lets say whenever the commercials increase their net long position he opens a long position
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #536,826
  • Sep 11, 2011 8:35am Sep 11, 2011 8:35am
Quoting The Fool
you don't understand my point:

Commercials take futures and options positions as a hedge primarily, so those positions are considered counterindicative.

In other words, a heavy flow to long positions in the Commercials is a clear signal to short.
you know what, I'm actually interested in what you're saying, I've read several books and they never mentioned anything about this, do you have any resource where I can understand the concepts behind this assumptions? please?

Regards and thanks in advance
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #536,827
  • Sep 11, 2011 8:53am Sep 11, 2011 8:53am
EC

Candle by candle tech analysis of SNB intention is showing the first sign of failure as H1 closed below 2090.
Now we are waiting if H4 is able to close below 2071 H4 breakup bar to start another sell-off to 1.2 region...unless the SNB intervene.

Yuro is so very fcucked
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  • #536,828
  • Sep 11, 2011 9:28am Sep 11, 2011 9:28am
Quoting Obaidah
COT report is suspicious, banks have greatly increased their long positions by 58% on EURUSD in one week!!

be careful guys and good luck.
Bank must hedge Euro future. Thats what they always do. If they got USD, they need Euro asset or future in case that EUR value go up and USD goes down. By doing so, if the USD value go up, they gain from that, if the USD value go down, they gain from their euro future.
  • #536,829
  • Sep 11, 2011 9:59am Sep 11, 2011 9:59am
Quoting Obaidah
you know what, I'm actually interested in what you're saying, I've read several books and they never mentioned anything about this, do you have any resource where I can understand the concepts behind this assumptions? please?

Regards and thanks in advance
Check on babypips. They talked about that

Here the link :

http://www.babypips.com/school/the-c...-strategy.html
  • #536,830
  • Sep 11, 2011 10:36am Sep 11, 2011 10:36am
Quoting Link
Check on babypips. They talked about that

Here the link :

http://www.babypips.com/school/the-cot-trading-strategy.html
this link does not work
  • #536,831
  • Sep 11, 2011 10:36am Sep 11, 2011 10:36am
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rpbdku1f0M...1_09.09.11.gif

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CaEVehU_iq...y_09.09.11.gif
  • #536,832
  • Sep 11, 2011 10:44am Sep 11, 2011 10:44am
Trend : Down from 1.4208 and gone mad below 1.3823

valid for this month .

coming week

Resistance at 1.3823 -1.3840

If we do not touch 1.3594 in next week then we are heading towards 1.3845 and 1.3920 .

It is 100 % certain that if we miss 1.3594 then we hit 1.3845 .

All time big support and resistance

1.3536 abv must hit tgt is 1.3948 ( this is a big tgt hence can take time ) this triggers only when the price dips 100 pips below 1.3536 and cuts it from below.

1.39746 < (1.38666 - 1.38531) < (137452 - 137027 ) < (135954 > 135789) < (1.3494 > 1.3479)

rock solid support 1.3479 -94 zone

break of each of these () box level opens the next resistance levels.

These levels do not change on a daily basis and remain same always. The values might change a little may be 2-4 pips depending upon the broker you use. These figures are generated from my broker data .
  • #536,833
  • Edited 11:45am Sep 11, 2011 10:49am | Edited 11:45am
Quoting khizer
Asalamu Alikum,

Brother! I want to express my views on eur/usd.

I am bearish in Eur/USD till she tastes 1.34 zones, because bellow reasons:

1- (TF: Daily) After February MA indicating bearish nicely
2- (TF weekly) broke very strong support at 394. And next strong support at February low 1.34
[color=black][font=Verdana]3- E/u broke many...
Walikum as salam , Very true what happening right now , 3660 level breaks ( 4/8mm as majore sr weekly corresponding daily tf 0/8MM ultimate resistance readying for undershoot already ) & hold still the platform for next levels down & in this turn 3546 & even test 3428 no matter & confirmation yet . if so breaks there next level 3177 3/8 MM weekly test, typical for up try with full force or failure towards or set for undershhot & same will apply breaks & hold formula with tests 3058 & 2939 .
so first 3428 or not.

lets see
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #536,834
  • Sep 11, 2011 11:18am Sep 11, 2011 11:18am
What is the reason for the high bear from Aug 30?
I must missed an important news ( I was busy ), anyhow my preferred time to trade in after 15 of each month, because no ulta high important news.
Unemployment Claims it should be on favor of EUR for eg.

This forum contains post at page=35500
until this page (793) is 400 page almost..
I want to buy PATIENCE
  • #536,835
  • Sep 11, 2011 11:25am Sep 11, 2011 11:25am
Here is my Numbers with the possibilties.......for monday
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  • #536,836
  • Sep 11, 2011 11:26am Sep 11, 2011 11:26am
Planning to sell 1.3672 Line in the sand
  • #536,837
  • Sep 11, 2011 11:29am Sep 11, 2011 11:29am
Quoting SlyQsx
Nice count.


Seb
  • #536,838
  • Sep 11, 2011 11:39am Sep 11, 2011 11:39am
dont see any reason for a turn before we touch marked demand area.

previous important PPZ

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Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #536,839
  • Sep 11, 2011 11:41am Sep 11, 2011 11:41am
Quoting Obaidah
you know what, I'm actually interested in what you're saying, I've read several books and they never mentioned anything about this, do you have any resource where I can understand the concepts behind this assumptions? please?

Regards and thanks in advance
You're welcome. I didn't arrive at this view from something in a book, although I think its touched on in a Kathy Lien book I read. Anyway, its a common interpretation of the COT Report. This guy, Larry Williams, is supposed to be a trader...

http://www.ireallytrade.com/cotreport.html

"The largest powers in the marketplace are the Commercials. These are the large users and producers of the commodity. They do not use the commodity markets to speculate or directly make money in the markets. They are producers and users of the commodity, so they sell forward or hedge their production/demand. They use the markets for selling and delivery, not speculating."

etc.... as I've said, for me the COT report is old news.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #536,840
  • Sep 11, 2011 11:41am Sep 11, 2011 11:41am
Quoting unimak
Trend : Down from 1.4208 and gone mad below 1.3823

valid for this month .

coming week

Resistance at 1.3823 -1.3840

If we do not touch 1.3594 in next week then we are heading towards 1.3845 and 1.3920 .

It is 100 % certain that if we miss 1.3594 then we hit 1.3845 .

All time big support and resistance

1.3536 abv must hit tgt is 1.3948 ( this is a big tgt hence can take time ) this triggers only when the price dips 100 pips below 1.3536 and cuts it from below.

1.39746 < (1.38666 - 1.38531) < (137452 - 137027 ) < (135954...
Nothing is 100 % in this business
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
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