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  • #536,801
  • Sep 10, 2011 8:07pm Sep 10, 2011 8:07pm
Quoting bumapatria
Where do you get your COTR?

Im guessing this is a plan to not devalue the euro so badly.

Anyways, we must adapt to survive!
http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/Co...ders/index.htm

Chicago Mercantile Exchange -> short format

all the data contained is traded against the dollar so when you see increased long on YEN that means increased long on YEN/USD and not on USD/YEN

one thing you should know is that usually commercials trade using weekly charts and their position might build up for moves on weekly and monthly chart, usually they're net sellers and when they buy something you better be careful
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #536,802
  • Sep 10, 2011 8:10pm Sep 10, 2011 8:10pm
Quoting The Fool
commercial futures positions commonly taken as a hedge, so this is usually interpreted contrarily.
even on futures and options combined report, they're net buyers, increased their long positions more than 50%
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #536,803
  • Sep 10, 2011 8:43pm Sep 10, 2011 8:43pm
Quoting bumapatria
beautiful chart. I believe that there is so much meaning to all those channels and TLs. But for me its too crowdded. but hey, ive seen sooo many traders with at least 30 TLs on one chart, and can still focus.

Its good as long as you know what they all mean and use it to your advantage
Yep - I cant deal with a messy chart when actually trading - the busy ones I keep for reference that I can recall onto a current chart when needed to back check something.

For real time I tend to have a scratch chart (usually M15) that starts clean with some basic guide TLs and just gets messy during the day.

Along the bottom of the screen 6 different naked and clean views of T/M1/M5/M15/H1/H4 so I can see the last dozen or so candles clearly from each TF at all times - nothing worse for me than not be able to see them clearly in real time due to too much scribbling etc
  • #536,804
  • Sep 10, 2011 9:39pm Sep 10, 2011 9:39pm
Looks like we've taken quite a fall through that long term trend line!

WooHoo! Now its time for the retest of it from below and then the inevitable continuation down to the recent lows around 1.20.

Just my 2 pisa.

-f4e-
  • #536,805
  • Sep 10, 2011 10:04pm Sep 10, 2011 10:04pm
Quoting Obaidah
even on futures and options combined report, they're net buyers, increased their long positions more than 50%
you don't understand my point:

Commercials take futures and options positions as a hedge primarily, so those positions are considered counterindicative.

In other words, a heavy flow to long positions in the Commercials is a clear signal to short.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #536,806
  • Sep 10, 2011 10:57pm Sep 10, 2011 10:57pm
Quoting The Fool
Commercials take futures and options positions as a hedge primarily, so those positions are considered counterindicative.
Moreover, that commercial position is 128K contracts. With 8 contracts per million, 8000 contracts per billion. Hence, the position is about 16 billion. That's a size well within the range of the system's hedge needs for forward rate agreements, bank client positioning, etc.
  • #536,807
  • Sep 10, 2011 11:30pm Sep 10, 2011 11:30pm
Quoting OldQuant
Moreover,...., etc.
Hey, OldQ - hope Summer is being good to you. See ya at the bottom?....if there's anything left to bottom, that is....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #536,808
  • Sep 11, 2011 12:20am Sep 11, 2011 12:20am
My understanding also is that commercials are also often countertrend traders.... They are commercial because they fit the definition under the CFTC and are required to report their positions on Tues each week. Hedgers also must also fit the criteria.

My understanding though is that not all commercial activity is hedging so some positions could be in effect the taking of the other side of the trades??? The report is released Fri. It's only a snap shot.

IMO this report is just reflecting the trend at the moment among other things. Remember also this is just a piece of the puzzle as futures contracts are not the only products which make up the currency market.
Do your time and enjoy the ride...
  • #536,809
  • Sep 11, 2011 12:37am Sep 11, 2011 12:37am
Quoting Good Fortune
are required to report their positions on Tues each week. .....The report is released Fri.
right...some would say that's ..."old news"...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #536,810
  • Sep 11, 2011 12:41am Sep 11, 2011 12:41am
1.25 even if they not come up with some fiscal union then even 1.00
  • #536,811
  • Sep 11, 2011 12:54am Sep 11, 2011 12:54am
Inserted Video
Do your time and enjoy the ride...
  • #536,812
  • Sep 11, 2011 12:55am Sep 11, 2011 12:55am
Quoting ingmarforex
1.25 even if they not come up with some fiscal union then even 1.00
Crash the currency but save the union? The EMU will survive if the Bankers have their way. What can stop them? Between the ballot and the bullet the latter has usually been more effective.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #536,813
  • Sep 11, 2011 1:09am Sep 11, 2011 1:09am
Quoting The Fool
Crash the currency but save the union? The EMU will survive if the Bankers have their way. What can stop them? Between the ballot and the bullet the latter has usually been more effective.
The only way to save the eu is to come up with some fiscal union if they dont and just let greece leave then te rest will follow (domino) and will make things real nasty if they come up with some solution. Political backup in the eurozone regarding a fiscal union euro will get straight up and give a great buy in between i see eu go 1.25 otherwise par. Only reason for me to buy will be the fiscal union. and will buy it big eur can go straight of to 1.60 then.

Now 1.25 or par.
  • #536,814
  • Sep 11, 2011 1:40am Sep 11, 2011 1:40am
Quoting Spacetec
we are trading in buy zone currently but watch out for drop to around 1.3526 then sudden spike back up its possible simply because when we last visited 1.3645 same thing happend on daily TF on 22/02/2011 good to just have a look ,so wud be carefull if shorting after 1.3625 ,this is only valid if price breakout downward from here
This is no where close to a buy zone, it is a complete downward move with pullbacks.
  • #536,815
  • Sep 11, 2011 1:57am Sep 11, 2011 1:57am
Quoting ingmarforex
The only way to save the eu is to come up with some fiscal union if they dont and just let greece leave then te rest will follow (domino) and will make things real nasty if they come up with some solution. Political backup in the eurozone regarding a fiscal union euro will get straight up and give a great buy in between i see eu go 1.25 otherwise par. Only reason for me to buy will be the fiscal union. and will buy it big eur can go straight of to 1.60 then.

Now 1.25 or par.
Jim Rogers had an interesting take on Fri. Don't have a conclusion myself yet...

Inserted Video
Do your time and enjoy the ride...
  • #536,816
  • Edited 3:11am Sep 11, 2011 2:09am | Edited 3:11am
Quoting ingmarforex
The only way to save the eu is to come up with some fiscal union if they dont and just let greece leave then te rest will follow (domino) and will make things real nasty if they come up with some solution. Political backup in the eurozone regarding a fiscal union euro will get straight up and give a great buy in between i see eu go 1.25 otherwise par. Only reason for me to buy will be the fiscal union. and will buy it big eur can go straight of to 1.60 then.

Now 1.25 or par.
Possible , good see what going & may go next . the big failure on the forehead eu bull now , bo down strong , sequelae of previous one there 3864 limit breaks though on 12-7-'11 but neglected now got new C again and also c at far low onwards inpulse up unclear . lets see how far but may at the same time subject to go opposite any moment with this present last spike down to bull enormous, 3568 & 3406 ones such # & corresponding USDX 77.78 before grand final 78.76 now 77.15 .existing top making still considering a bull flag rather crushed altogether .
afterall no clean play since the birth of euro , mofu may continue birth to death so accomodate any wave any place at any time with ease .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #536,817
  • Sep 11, 2011 2:35am Sep 11, 2011 2:35am
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip528928

Ashraf Laidi says short E/U to 1.3, short CAD/JPY, and long gold to $2300 by yearend.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #536,818
  • Edited 2:55am Sep 11, 2011 2:45am | Edited 2:55am
Quoting The Fool
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip528928

Ashraf Laidi says short E/U to 1.3, short CAD/JPY, and long gold to $2300 by yearend.
ok , still in bull eu , gold expecting 1758/28 before my level 1962.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #536,819
  • Sep 11, 2011 6:00am Sep 11, 2011 6:00am
Asalamu Alikum,

Brother! I want to express my views on eur/usd.

I am bearish in Eur/USD till she tastes 1.34 zones, because bellow reasons:

1- (TF: Daily) After February MA indicating bearish nicely
2- (TF weekly) broke very strong support at 394. And next strong support at February low 1.34
3- E/u broke many supports line.
4- European debit crisis.
5- UBS on its client flows shows asset managers were big sellers of the euro last week, while hedge funds also shed Euro.

My Views Conclusion: 1.3400 zones is more effective zone than 1.4000 areas in coming days.




Quoting khizer
408 is nice entry for short only for scalping!
18th july low not yet tested 40124

Be remember Brother! its broked many levels its free falling!
Quoting fontu
Possible , good see what going & may go next . the big failure on the forehead eu bull now , bo down strong , sequelae of previous one there 3864 limit breaks though on 12-7-'11 but neglected now got new C again and also c at far low onwards inpulse up unclear . lets see how far but may at the same time subject to go opposite any moment with this present last spike down to bull enormous, 3568 & 3406 ones such # & corresponding USDX 77.78 before grand final 78.76 now 77.15 .existing top making still considering a...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #536,820
  • Sep 11, 2011 6:36am Sep 11, 2011 6:36am
Posted the first chart on 4/9/11. But the daily close below 1826.6 on wednesday makes this rise again to 1879 looks like a retest for a next push lower possibly to 1780 or 1700 this week.

Bear is gaining power
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