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  • #536,781
  • Sep 10, 2011 10:49am Sep 10, 2011 10:49am
Quoting AlbertR
Hi.
What do you think a pair of euro dollar?
Its bearish.

USD is strong.

lol i was watching bloomberg, and they were talking about the obama speech, and i noticed in the background they had HUGE stock rates with big RED numbers and a big red arrow on DOW Jones, S&P (basically the major stocks) drop. I went to see my charts, and I was worried if my short was hunted. from a 400 pip gain from 1.4249, my profits were at 600 pips profit.

Its bearish, and its going to break through support Imo.

If it aint, reversal into resistance.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #536,782
  • Sep 10, 2011 10:56am Sep 10, 2011 10:56am
Quoting AlbertR
Hi.
What do you think a pair of euro dollar?
looking for 3574 + soon.. but it still may bounce first..3626/05.. it has dropped slightly since Friday close. 3733 may be a good short area.. it may bounce in the 3550 area also.. give or take 25
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #536,783
  • Sep 10, 2011 11:01am Sep 10, 2011 11:01am
yes 1.3733. or Best arena 1.3787 if they give
  • #536,784
  • Edited 11:16am Sep 10, 2011 11:04am | Edited 11:16am
Quoting AlbertR
yes 1.3733. or Best arena 1.3887 if they give
3733 was my #2 Friday.. its still valid. but missed. i longed at 3626 bounce.. my monthly s3.... mid point to s2 (3841) is near 3633.. looks like 100 pip moves are in vogue. 100 pips from low is below 3574 min at 3526
3574 was the target from the last move weeks ago. the others are much lower.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #536,785
  • Sep 10, 2011 11:26am Sep 10, 2011 11:26am
Quoting gatorinla
3733 was my #2 Friday.. its still valid. but missed. i longed at 3626 bounce.. my monthly s3.... mid point to s2 (3841) is near 3633.. looks like 100 pip moves are in vogue. 100 pips from low is below 3574 min at 3526
3574 was the target from the last move weeks ago. the others are much lower.
sorry for my bad English. you think that we will verify 1.3841?
  • #536,786
  • Sep 10, 2011 11:59am Sep 10, 2011 11:59am
Hello, below some charts about eurusd, first the daily.

As i see, there are good chances that a new downtrend is just started after a nice distribution period, the pair MAY be targeting the 1.18 area in the verylongterm, however many variables have to be considered and it's very hard now to attemp such forecast, so let's concentrate on what happening now.

As we see from the daily chart, volatility is exploding and everything is pointing down.
However, yesterday the pair just reached some (probably) support area that may give it a temporanely stop.

So, zooming in, let's see where the next resistances can be (and hopefully if you bought eur during the downmove, where you can close your positions minimizing the losses).


So let's look at the 1h chart, we see this downmove was composed by one impulsive move (from 1.4533 to 1.3972), and one second wave that reached the impulsive wave targets, doing so it also broke an important support and well everything is pretty bearish now.

What to expect now, i guess buyers are somehow scared at the moment because of the current situation, and i think it's the case to be scared.
As we see from the 1h chart, just after broke the impulsive wave support (1.3972), the pair made a little resistance point at 1.3935 just before go down like a rock.
My idea is that such point may be where the next sells-cluster can be found, and also 1.3972 (ex support) can be a good point, also 1.3832 (ex support) or 1.3870.

Those points can give a big help in case you've bought the pair and are looking to a point where to get out from the market minimizing losses, so keep an eye on them, of course everything can happen so be careful both buying or selling the pair, volatility is really high now and can become higher and higher in the coming times.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 1h.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #536,787
  • Sep 10, 2011 12:20pm Sep 10, 2011 12:20pm
we are trading in buy zone currently but watch out for drop to around 1.3526 then sudden spike back up its possible simply because when we last visited 1.3645 same thing happend on daily TF on 22/02/2011 good to just have a look ,so wud be carefull if shorting after 1.3625 ,this is only valid if price breakout downward from here
  • #536,788
  • Sep 10, 2011 1:32pm Sep 10, 2011 1:32pm
today is saturday..i will wait for the monday.to give the actual numbers of eurusd.
  • #536,789
  • Sep 10, 2011 1:56pm Sep 10, 2011 1:56pm
COT report is suspicious, banks have greatly increased their long positions by 58% on EURUSD in one week!!

be careful guys and good luck.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #536,790
  • Sep 10, 2011 2:15pm Sep 10, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting Obaidah
COT report is suspicious, banks have greatly increased their long positions by 58% on EURUSD in one week!!

be careful guys and good luck.
Where do you get your COTR?

Im guessing this is a plan to not devalue the euro so badly.

Anyways, we must adapt to survive!
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #536,791
  • Sep 10, 2011 2:35pm Sep 10, 2011 2:35pm
Quoting Obaidah
COT report is suspicious, banks have greatly increased their long positions by 58% on EURUSD in one week!!
commercial futures positions commonly taken as a hedge, so this is usually interpreted contrarily.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #536,792
  • Sep 10, 2011 2:36pm Sep 10, 2011 2:36pm
Not planning on going one way or the other until I see what is actually happenning, though tempted by small tight stop longs to catch a retrace until the real ongoing behaviour is revealed.

I can see strong arguments in the charts in favour of both a strong rise and a strong fall. I think a long fall is a likely eventual outcome in either case.

For next few weeks one of:
1. Now in a down trend, so retrace to 1.38-1.4 region, then trend towards 1.1x region... or...

2. Still in an uptrend so, up to 1.43-1.44, some small consolidation then continue upto 1.48-1.50 with a longer term trend toward 1.1x.

In either case an eventual long fall seems inevitable and about due - the question is is this the start of it or not? Ie where to target your inter-day/inter week trades.

For me, my tentative thoughts are to open small long positions on monday morning to target at least 1.375, but hold with trailing stops to hopefully 1.38. If/when past 1.38, may add more longs to target 1.40+, but nothing further until some clear indication of targetting 1.42 or higher, as that might suggest that 1.44+ is on the cards. If you get there - then time to start looking for a break upto 1.48+, but be careful in that region.

Conversely, if we see only a small retrace to 1.375/80 or so, then may be time to start loading heavy on shorts for a long long ride down.
  • #536,793
  • Sep 10, 2011 2:36pm Sep 10, 2011 2:36pm
Quoting Obaidah
COT report is suspicious, banks have greatly increased their long positions by 58% on EURUSD in one week!!

be careful guys and good luck.
Here you can find charts of all COT's databases divided between Large investors, Commercials, and small speculators.

Select the value and in the COT table select wich level are you interested in...

http://www.timingcharts.com/charts
  • #536,794
  • Sep 10, 2011 2:54pm Sep 10, 2011 2:54pm
Quoting Khazul
Not planning on going one way or the other until I see what is actually happenning, though tempted by small tight stop longs to catch a retrace until the real ongoing behaviour is revealed.

I can see strong arguments in the charts in favour of both a strong rise and a strong fall. I think a long fall is a likely eventual outcome in either case.

For next few weeks one of:
1. Now in a down trend, so retrace to 1.38-1.4 region, then trend towards 1.1x region... or...

2. Still in an uptrend so, up to 1.43-1.44, some small consolidation then continue...
The truth is, forex is feckin' simple. It's our minds that are complicated. Im biased on both positions. That's why most of my trades were crosses so far. And a lot of them were profitable thank god.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #536,795
  • Sep 10, 2011 3:27pm Sep 10, 2011 3:27pm
Quoting The Fool
commercial futures positions commonly taken as a hedge, so this is usually interpreted contrarily.
I thought that was for Options and not Futures?
  • #536,796
  • Sep 10, 2011 6:15pm Sep 10, 2011 6:15pm
It seems the current week end might have filled in the missing piece of a couple of channel puzzles - june 2010 to present (green) and april 2011 to present (red) ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Channels Completed 20110909.jpg Size: 106 KB
  • #536,797
  • Sep 10, 2011 7:27pm Sep 10, 2011 7:27pm
Quoting Khazul
It seems the current week end might have filled in the missing piece of a couple of channel puzzles - june 2010 to present (green) and april 2011 to present (red) ...
Nice chart man, sophisticated analysis!!
  • #536,798
  • Sep 10, 2011 7:38pm Sep 10, 2011 7:38pm
Quoting Khazul
It seems the current week end might have filled in the missing piece of a couple of channel puzzles - june 2010 to present (green) and april 2011 to present (red) ...
beautiful chart. I believe that there is so much meaning to all those channels and TLs. But for me its too crowdded. but hey, ive seen sooo many traders with at least 30 TLs on one chart, and can still focus.

Its good as long as you know what they all mean and use it to your advantage
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #536,799
  • Sep 10, 2011 8:01pm Sep 10, 2011 8:01pm
Quoting kerubinus
Here you can find charts of all COT's databases divided between Large investors, Commercials, and small speculators.

Select the value and in the COT table select wich level are you interested in...

http://www.timingcharts.com/charts
thank you VERY VERY VERY MUCH!!!
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #536,800
  • Sep 10, 2011 8:01pm Sep 10, 2011 8:01pm
Quoting Khazul
Not planning on going one way or the other until I see what is actually happenning, though tempted by small tight stop longs to catch a retrace until the real ongoing behaviour is revealed.

I can see strong arguments in the charts in favour of both a strong rise and a strong fall. I think a long fall is a likely eventual outcome in either case.

For next few weeks one of:
1. Now in a down trend, so retrace to 1.38-1.4 region, then trend towards 1.1x region... or...

2. Still in an uptrend so, up to 1.43-1.44, some small consolidation then continue...
PA closed below TL of Weekly, Daily, H1, H4. And Profit targets are as low as 1.300s. HA shows damn strong sell signal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tl.gif Size: 39 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
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