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T101 Basket Trader with ONE of Nanningbob's Balls

  • #81
  • Sep 8, 2011 2:07pm Sep 8, 2011 2:07pm
Hi Gvc

how is trading with the 8 pair basket generally??

buy the looks of it with your 100 pips pretty good, is that normal with a decent entry system for signals

for the moment i am testing with the 14 as i need to test out the ea, but when i start the actual live test in a real money acct. i would appreciate any tips people may have, as I have said numerous times, this T101 stuff is all new to me in the last week.....

just noticed, there looks to be a bug in that the no open order / hedge table in gray at the bottom has some odd values on your screen, doesn't happen on mine so maybe it's something to do with you using only 8

will look into it

Quoting Gvc
I hear you.

As far as the negative pairs go I am fortunate that it rarely affects me because I have only been trading the 8 pair basket for a while.
So opposite trades rarely if ever affect me.

The 8 pair also gives candles with near normal bodies and wicks. I find the long wicks on the 14 pair distracting.

I have just closed the basket for 100 odd pips.
This is on a Live penny account.

Regards
  • #82
  • Sep 8, 2011 2:46pm Sep 8, 2011 2:46pm
The 8 pair has been good to me for about a year now.(Maybe longer)

I traded 14 pairs first, but found the DD was too much for my small starting account & the 8 pairs made me consistently more profitable.

I make anything from a few hundred pips per week to over a thousand.
This is not always the case as i do have bad weeks in between, but fortunately more profits than losses.
  • #83
  • Sep 8, 2011 3:09pm Sep 8, 2011 3:09pm
John

This is really good, managed a few good trades when i get the entry right! In regards to direction attached is my last basket and all the CHF pairs are going wrong way to basket. So your new developments look just the ticket to maximise profit.

I think we should be looking at entries and trying to nail down a definition that is consistently repeatable, this is the key to a good EA. As for exits we have that covered with tp and trailing stops.

I have been looking at using NB10 for entries, not doing too well though so need to reread the thread. Before you released the EA i was using tma true and BBs for entry in my EA and they seemed to work to a point but still needed development.

Any thoughts?

Mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: t101 m5.gif Size: 75 KB
  • #84
  • Sep 8, 2011 3:29pm Sep 8, 2011 3:29pm
I THINK CORRELATION IS OF UTMOST IMPORTANCE! This is a web site that lets you try any combination of pairs. I just got it and once I master the "Buttons" I intend to match up the best correlations.

http://www.forexticket.co.uk/en/tools/01-01-correlation

Catch you later.
  • #85
  • Sep 8, 2011 3:37pm Sep 8, 2011 3:37pm
version 1.3 is now available from the first post

highlights of this release as follows:-

Version 1.3 - 8 Sept. 2011

Some quite major changes in this release, which directly affect the profitability of the bot, use wisely

Ability to exclude temporarily pairs from the basket, to assist a script has been written to exclude / include the pair (!T101 Exclude Include Pair). For those with move savvy, you can press F3 and set the global variable manually without the script
Ability to trade certain pairs in the opposite direction, this is set up in parameters and shouldn't be changed that often. Note:- to make the pair balance screen make sense, pairs that are traded oppositely have their value multiplied by -1 so it matches the rest of the basket
Improved break even & lock handling, bot will now automatically set to breakeven + lock, the set to breakeven value can be modified via global variables (F3)
Start trailing at value can now be modified via global variables (F3)
Fixed problem with extra data being displayed when not using basket 14



am beginning to wonder what version number we will be at before this bot is finished.............
  • #86
  • Sep 8, 2011 4:00pm Sep 8, 2011 4:00pm
I have 3 more major upgrades planned for the bot (this is of course not including any bug fixes and whatever else other people may decide is needed)

the next major upgrades in order are

get hedging to work

move the signals generation (ie. buy,sell,close etc) to external indicators
this would allow me to have a "default" template version, then anyone who had their own method of signals, could simply create a new template without having to modify the bot at all

automatic opening & closing of orders based on the signals

Of course things come up (like for instance this opposite thing today) which may move priorities somewhat but the general plan is there

regards, john
  • #87
  • Sep 8, 2011 4:09pm Sep 8, 2011 4:09pm
Quoting Beshakey
If you write down the 14 and look at what currencies you are trading when you "buy" or "sell" the entire basket, you find that you are trading the strength or weakness of the JPY against the European currencies.
Yep, that's the general idea. These basket systems all boil down to one thing - betting that certain currencies will outperform others. With this T101 14-pair basket, you are clearly betting heavy on the JPY.

For example, if you buy 1 lot of each of the 14 pairs, you are trading a basket that is equivalent to:

2.0 Lots AUDUSD
4.0 Lots EURUSD
2.1 Lots GBPUSD
2.0 Lots NZDUSD
2.8 Lots USDCHF
7.0 Lots USDJPY

Now, if you buy 13 pairs, but sell USDCHF, you get this:

2.0 Lots AUDUSD
4.0 Lots EURUSD
2.1 Lots GBPUSD
2.0 Lots NZDUSD
0.8 Lots USDCHF
7.0 Lots USDJPY

Now, if you buy 12 pairs, but sell USDCHF and USDJPY, you get this:

2.0 Lots AUDUSD
4.0 Lots EURUSD
2.1 Lots GBPUSD
2.0 Lots NZDUSD
0.8 Lots USDCHF
5.0 Lots USDJPY

When viewing these long baskets like this, you can clearly see that you are creating 3 groups of currencies, where the USD is in the middle and CHF/JPY is at the bottom and all others are on top:

You want AUD/EUR/GBP/NZD to all be stronger than the USD.

You want the USD to be stronger than the CHF and JPY.

As you can see, getting the strength of JPY correct is very important to basket profitability.
  • #88
  • Sep 8, 2011 4:20pm Sep 8, 2011 4:20pm
hi zznbrm

do you have a spreadsheet or indicator working this out, or did you do it by hand?

i have absolutely no clue about this basket stuff, and was basically looking more at the pairs moving in correlation (hence me doing the opposite with usdchf and usdjpy)

john

Quoting zznbrm
Yep, that's the general idea. These basket systems all boil down to one thing - betting that certain currencies will outperform others. With this T101 14-pair basket, you are clearly betting heavy on the JPY.
As you can see, getting the strength of JPY correct is very important to basket profitability.
  • #89
  • Sep 8, 2011 4:40pm Sep 8, 2011 4:40pm
Quoting zznbrm

When viewing these long baskets like this, you can clearly see that you are creating 3 groups of currencies, where the USD is in the middle and CHF/JPY is at the bottom and all others are on top:

You want AUD/EUR/GBP/NZD to all be stronger than the USD.

You want the USD to be stronger than the CHF and JPY.

As you can see, getting the strength of JPY correct is very important to basket profitability.
Finally, the explanation I've been looking for. Thanks so much for this. A correlator indicator, of which there are many floating around, would help us time the entry to when the conditions you stated are met.
  • #90
  • Sep 8, 2011 4:41pm Sep 8, 2011 4:41pm
Forgot to attach screenshot.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fx correlator.jpg Size: 88 KB
  • #91
  • Sep 8, 2011 5:29pm Sep 8, 2011 5:29pm
Quoting zznbrm

You want AUD/EUR/GBP/NZD to all be stronger than the USD.

You want the USD to be stronger than the CHF and JPY.

As you can see, getting the strength of JPY correct is very important to basket profitability.
Zznbrm,

If both the conditions aren't in place, what would you say is the more important to enter a basket?

I think the first condition will occur more often, but that doesn't make it the better one, especially with the strength of the CHF lately.
  • #92
  • Sep 8, 2011 5:36pm Sep 8, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting jmw1970
hi zznbrm

do you have a spreadsheet or indicator working this out, or did you do it by hand?

i have absolutely no clue about this basket stuff, and was basically looking more at the pairs moving in correlation (hence me doing the opposite with usdchf and usdjpy)

john
See attached spreadsheet. Uses DDE for live data.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls T101BasketCalc.xls   137 KB | 530 downloads
  • #93
  • Sep 8, 2011 5:50pm Sep 8, 2011 5:50pm
Quoting gilab
Zznbrm,

If both the conditions aren't in place, what would you say is the more important to enter a basket?

I think the first condition will occur more often, but that doesn't make it the better one, especially with the strength of the CHF lately.
JPY is the most important currency for this basket. Get the direction/strength of JPY correct and you have a good chance of a profitable basket.
  • #94
  • Sep 8, 2011 6:23pm Sep 8, 2011 6:23pm
thanks for the spreadsheet

it's quite funny really - trying to code a bot when I have no clue about the mechanics behind the logic of the basket

hopefully though i will understand better as i code and test more

i am getting quite attached to this bot...

Quoting zznbrm
See attached spreadsheet. Uses DDE for live data.
  • #95
  • Sep 9, 2011 12:52am Sep 9, 2011 12:52am
Quoting zznbrm
Yep, that's the general idea. These basket systems all boil down to one thing - betting that certain currencies will outperform others. With this T101 14-pair basket, you are clearly betting heavy on the JPY.

For example, if you buy 1 lot of each of the 14 pairs, you are trading a basket that is equivalent to:

2.0 Lots AUDUSD
4.0 Lots EURUSD
2.1 Lots GBPUSD
2.0 Lots NZDUSD
2.8 Lots USDCHF
7.0 Lots USDJPY

Now, if you buy 13 pairs, but sell USDCHF, you get this:

2.0 Lots AUDUSD
4.0 Lots EURUSD
2.1 Lots GBPUSD
2.0 Lots NZDUSD
0.8...
zznbrm,
thats good insight.
looking at fundamentals and price action.. USDJPY should be made to have a weaker role in the basket. Here's why

TECHNICALLY:
----------------
If we look at USDJPY price action over the past year it's been constantly in range, other than the weeks where BOJ has intervened.

I personally make a lot of pips from EURUSD, however when it comes to USJPY, i dont loose many trades but the profits are never high. It just ranges.

If the idea of profitability of the basket depends on trend then a ranging currency should not have a strong influence.

FUNDAMENTALLY:
--------------------
The japanese economy is reallllllly stagnant. They dont have a clear direction in term of local economic growth. Its STRONG export growth & market share make JPY a safe currency. However the country is stagflating.

So JPY is not a good currency to hold if we are looking for trends and movements. Especially when its trading in the 75's.

These arguments fit good for USA too, however
1. the US$ is a base currency
2. still the biggest investment market in the world
3. EU & US have huge liquidity pools & hedge funds to drive price up r down
4. Its still a superpower

In conclusion, how abt we throw some ideas on engineering the basket.

What if we swap JPY & AUD?
  • #96
  • Sep 9, 2011 3:05am Sep 9, 2011 3:05am
There is a slight bug in the latest version

for those of you who have no idea how to modify code, simply set the VisualTP parameter to false

for those who are more technically inclined

search for the code

Inserted Code
         if (Get_Opposite_Pair_Index(Symbol()) == (-1))
in the Get_Basket_Trades() function and change it to

Inserted Code
         if (Get_Opposite_Pair_Index(OrderSymbol()) == (-1))
  • #97
  • Sep 9, 2011 5:37am Sep 9, 2011 5:37am
on second thoughts i have decided to release all 3 of these upgrades at once

there is one more upgrade that i forgot to mention, and that is that both types of pending can now be entered (ie. limit and stop)

the reason for this decision is simple, as I am probably going to introduce bugs into each one (it is inevitable) if I release all 3 together (now 4) then there is better chance of fixing the bugs before getting to release 99!!

I also want to put together some decent documentation for the bot, as it's now getting so complicated I can't even remember what certain settings do

so folks - the next release is the big one




Quoting jmw1970
I have 3 more major upgrades planned for the bot (this is of course not including any bug fixes and whatever else other people may decide is needed)

the next major upgrades in order are

get hedging to work

move the signals generation (ie. buy,sell,close etc) to external indicators
this would allow me to have a "default" template version, then anyone who had their own method of signals, could simply create a new template without having to modify the bot at all

automatic opening & closing of orders based on the signals

Of course things come...
  • #98
  • Sep 9, 2011 6:15am Sep 9, 2011 6:15am
Quoting zznbrm
Yep, that's the general idea. These basket systems all boil down to one thing - betting that certain currencies will outperform others. With this T101 14-pair basket, you are clearly betting heavy on the JPY.

For example, if you buy 1 lot of each of the 14 pairs, you are trading a basket that is equivalent to:

2.0 Lots AUDUSD
4.0 Lots EURUSD
2.1 Lots GBPUSD
2.0 Lots NZDUSD
2.8 Lots USDCHF
7.0 Lots USDJPY

Now, if you buy 13 pairs, but sell USDCHF, you get this:

2.0 Lots AUDUSD
4.0 Lots EURUSD
2.1 Lots GBPUSD
2.0 Lots NZDUSD
0.8 Lots USDCHF
7.0...
I had forgotten how much I enjoyed trading the basket, until I scooped up about 300 pips this morning.

A year and a half ago, I traded the basket for about 3-4 months, and made money. I had one huge problem with this, i always felt like I was trading blind, since there was no real chart to look at. The ones that were around at the time weren't good enough for me. But THIS, is a GREAT CHART, and a Great EA. Any of you who are just looking into basket, and T101 methods, take pause at how inovative and creative this offline chart really is.

THANKS A MILLION koz, Telac, Koz, JMW, DRY, GVC, Nanbob, and anyone I've forgotten

You made me dig out my old notes and re-aquaint myself with this system.



Back when I used to trade the basket, a guy told me this . . . it served me well.

When the USD and JPY are both strong, the EUR and GBP are weak. When the USD and JPY are weak, the EUR and GBP are strong.

When the basket is all jumbled up, this means the minors are driving the bus. (risk appetite?) No money to be made there.

Your statement; "You want AUD/EUR/GBP/NZD to all be stronger than the USD." is exactly right, in my veiw. YOU ALSO WANT THESE SAME CURRENCIES TO BE STRONGER THAN THE YEN.

THEREFORE, BUY BASKET (weak USD, JPY) would be; AU,EU,GU,NU, EJ,GJ,NJ,AJ. (I have doubts about the value of the CHF in the basket nowadays, since it is a rescue currency).

The UJ, like the UCf is often wandering around in the basket wilderness somewhere.

Thanks again, Guys. The members of FF have given me a million times more that I have given . . . For that I am grateful and I hope to repay some of that someday.
  • #99
  • Sep 9, 2011 7:41am Sep 9, 2011 7:41am
Here is a possible way to enter that may work . . .

Used the currency index indy that is included with IBFX platform. I am sure it is propriatory and so I couldn't attach to download. Perhaps their demo includes this, or your present broker may provide one. There a more than a few variations on FF. Perhaps, if we become interested in it's use, a coder will stop by and knock one together for us.

Have also changed candles to synergy HA. I thought these candles might look a little less scary against the bollingers

SIGNAL 1 NANNINGBOB SHOWS BASIS READS "SHORT"
PRICE IS BREAKING AWAY FROM UPPER BOLLINGER BAND

SIGNAL 2 CURRENCY INDEX SHOWS BASKET SHORT, USD AND JPY ON SELL SIDE OF MID-LEVEL

AT LEAST ONE (either EUR or GBP) are on BUY side of mid-level. The STRONGEST SIGNAL WOULD BE IF BOTH GBP AND EUR WERE DESCENDING INTO BUY ZONE.

ENTRY SIGNAL; ENTER ON STRONG BEAR (RED) SYNERGY CANDLE AWAY FROM BOLLINGER.

SECONDARY ENTRY, SAME SIGNALS, BUT ENTER AT BEARISH SYNERGY CROSSING MIDDLE BOL BAND

SOMETHING TO LOOK OVER IF ANY ARE INTERESTED IN THIS APPROACH OR HAVE ANY IDEAS

Thanks, Shake
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: possible set up.jpg Size: 140 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: basket currency index.jpg Size: 147 KB
  • #100
  • Sep 9, 2011 7:54am Sep 9, 2011 7:54am
[quote=Beshakey;4941695
THEREFORE, BUY BASKET (weak USD, JPY) would be; AU,EU,GU,NU, EJ,GJ,NJ,AJ. (I have doubts about the value of the CHF in the basket nowadays, since it is a rescue currency).
[/QUOTE]

It seems to this dim-witted idiot (Steve's name for me), that we have to find three things to make this work: the composition of the basket, simple and consistent entry signals, and the EA with the mechanics to make this work. The only area where I can contribute since I don't have a deep grasp of the fundamentals and I can't code, is in the area of entry signals.

I just modified the offline basket chart to reflect Beshakey's list. I added a trend indicator (nonlagdot) and a stoch indicator with arrows. This is not a magic formula (there are any number of combinations of trend indicators and oscillators that can be used).

You can take the signals from the arrows when they agree with the direction of the nonlagdot. I made a few minor modifications in the settings for the indicators which are attached.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 nonlagdot.ex4   6 KB | 319 downloads
File Type: ex4 Stochastic_Color_v1.02classicC.ex4   16 KB | 337 downloads
File Type: tpl basket-8 pairs - stoch with arrows.tpl   14 KB | 362 downloads
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