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  • #535,981
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:05am Sep 8, 2011 10:05am
sometimes its ridiculously obvious to see the targets and the stops... to the pip.. i can even tell you NZDUSD is gonna hit the wall and fall down at 0.840x...

i used to use one one simple indicator nothing else... without fibonacci and without any headache just rely on statistical trading not technical and no fundamentals
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #535,982
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:07am Sep 8, 2011 10:07am
Quoting johncen
actualli I want it to test the low once again here...
was out while we at low...
looking to build some more if we retest...

its already 3am in NZ...bed time..but I wanna build some more position here...
lol...I keep those kind of hours sometimes, but it's 11:09 AM here in the eastern US...

...Pretty good odds that we get at least the lower end of my target range
  • #535,983
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:10am Sep 8, 2011 10:10am
Quoting micho
well this is your view. my view is that news is already priced in and unexpected disasters/news will move the market in the news direction YES but it should not be able to do so against math which means you should hit the technical targets against the logic of the news first and then start reversing because of the news... because the money is accumulation of the past not only the present...

the only explaination of such shit reversals to me is that: few players are much much bigger than most of the other players, they can simply move the market...
You must be an atheist if you believe that fundamental disasters cant change direction against the mathematics..

Move like SNB generally happens once every two-years and most of the funds are not always 'all in'.

Before SNB I can recall moves like JPY intervention, EURO capitulation, Lehman bust, carry trade bust in GBP/JPY back in 2006, sustained unexplained bull run before that.. markets will do what it has to do and their is not always a hint or an explanation why it did that.
  • #535,984
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:12am Sep 8, 2011 10:12am
It will be too early if bear leave the battle. It's a golden chance for bear.
Bear has strong signal but in 1min chart bear showing its weakness.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #535,985
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:13am Sep 8, 2011 10:13am
Quoting BlueCirrus
lol...I keep those kind of hours sometimes, but it's 11:09 AM here in the eastern US...

...Pretty good odds that we get at least the lower end of my target range
lol lucky..never a good idea to trade us session here in US..
while Asian session usually no move at all....

oh well...
probably pending orders helps...
hmmmmm
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #535,986
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:13am Sep 8, 2011 10:13am
Quoting micho
anybody explains this technically to me. (technically and not the bullshit fundamental view) i believe in science and i am a pure technical trader who can nail 10 trades in a row but one trade like this every 10 trades ruins all the profits. if science cannot explain what happened in this chart then trading means losing money. (please don't tell me about some economical prospects or whatever, i am not a magician who can guess what is SNB thinking about doing in this second or the other...)
Same beleif when it comes to EUR/USD, but anything smaller, dunno - they would seem small enough to be messed with whereas eur/usd seem big enough to aborb most attempts at messing with it with only ripples to show for it.

So having never looked at that pair before and ignoring possible outside influences -
The move is more or less within an establish up channel on H4, so aint that wierd beyond how fast it moved.

Looking back spikes of dec 2008 and june 2010 suggest another is due, but they are slipping slightly (relative to each other), so perfectly possible that could combine to make really nasty spike between them - seen it often enough on EUR/USD over the summer.

Complex market waves are hard to predict hence all the crazy and only partially useful methods for reading candles and all the indicators that attempt to re-interet the data for you - mostly they are little better than reading tea leaves I find and sometimes shit just happens (national banks - grrr!)

Sorry - nothing to help predict the spike - there a tiny pin bar just before...

Also remember a bank might choose to throw money at a problem at an oppotunity that is most advanteous to them - for eg by hugely accelerating an anticipated up move ratehr than trying to stall a downer - in the end they want to make some loot as well.
  • #535,987
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:14am Sep 8, 2011 10:14am
Quoting Purple
You must be an atheist if you believe that fundamental disasters cant change direction against the mathematics..

Move like SNB generally happens once every two-years and most of the funds are not always 'all in'.

Before SNB I can recall moves like JPY intervention, EURO capitulation, Lehman bust, carry trade bust in GBP/JPY back in 2006, sustained unexplained bull run before that.. markets will do what it has to do and their is not always a hint or an explanation why it did that.
news change the markets but not before hitting the technical targets... this is in a fair market where everyone is almost equal... dont make me say things i never said....

ill be closing my NZDUSD trailing longs now for -60 at 0.84 instead of -350...grrr what a sucker week... +500 last week -240 this week... why?? SNB!!!
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #535,988
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:16am Sep 8, 2011 10:16am
Quoting Shaggy_rock
Next plan, it's all written on the pic.
Goodluck

S.
...Not a bad plan!
  • #535,989
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:19am Sep 8, 2011 10:19am
Quoting Khazul
Same beleif when it comes to EUR/USD, but anything smaller, dunno - they would seem small enough to be messed with whereas eur/usd seem big enough to aborb most attempts at messing with it with only ripples to show for it.

So having never looked at that pair before and ignoring possible outside influences -
The move is more or less within an establish up channel on H4, so aint that wierd beyond how fast it moved.

Looking back spikes of dec 2008 and june 2010 suggest another is due, but they are slipping slightly (relative to each other), so...
I AGREE WITH YOU that some currencies have lower possibilities to be manipulated because they are alot more universal and distributed... i think JPY and CHF are two monsters... i saw many illogical before in the pairs of these two in particular... also GPB is a beast because of BoE......

probably euro and usd is the most decent pair but still...

in the end... is it worth to be trading and wasting my time for a slim gain every week?? grrrr
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #535,990
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:20am Sep 8, 2011 10:20am
it failed break 1.4015 again and 1.3970 also gives support. might be a move if this range is break. maybe when Bernake speaks it will break the range.
  • #535,991
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:21am Sep 8, 2011 10:21am
Quoting forexings
It will be too early if bear leave the battle. It's a golden chance for bear.
Bear has strong signal but in 1min chart bear showing its weakness.
how can you post when you are suspended ?
btw, your posts are insightful and you said bull need to close up 1.4015 is correct so far
  • #535,992
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:28am Sep 8, 2011 10:28am
Quoting micho
news change the markets but not before hitting the technical targets... this is in a fair market where everyone is almost equal... dont make me say things i never said....

ill be closing my NZDUSD trailing longs now for -60 at 0.84 instead of -350...grrr what a sucker week... +500 last week -240 this week... why?? SNB!!!
I dont know from where you got this idea everyone is almost equal in FX.. central bank > retail .. FX markets dosent exists to give a retailer a chance to make quick buck, its their to give a country's currency its price and business which actually produces something and contributes to the economy depend on this market.
  • #535,993
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:30am Sep 8, 2011 10:30am
Looking for some sort of analysis regarding the 13:30EST fed speech this PM and its effect on the EUR/USD.
  • #535,994
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:30am Sep 8, 2011 10:30am
Quoting JanPoko
don't test another computer, try another broker...
kindly recommend a good one please..coz i've been scammed even by FXCM before..
I'm learning to trust my own charts..
  • #535,995
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:31am Sep 8, 2011 10:31am
Quoting BlueCirrus
Yep, scalping one short and three longs so far today.....Trying for 1.4038 to 1.4055 area now...
...Falling back close to BE stop here...last trade today either way...
  • #535,996
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:32am Sep 8, 2011 10:32am
Quoting Anis
kindly recommend a good one please..coz i've been scammed even by FXCM before..
IAMFX or Gallant
  • #535,997
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:33am Sep 8, 2011 10:33am
Quoting micho
I AGREE WITH YOU that some currencies have lower possibilities to be manipulated because they are alot more universal and distributed... i think JPY and CHF are two monsters... i saw many illogical before in the pairs of these two in particular... also GPB is a beast because of BoE......

probably euro and usd is the most decent pair but still...

in the end... is it worth to be trading and wasting my time for a slim gain every week?? grrrr
Depends what your definition of a slim gain is

Your been doing this a long time I guess already, whereas Im basically still very much a n00b finding my way. Out of interest - whats your target risk/gain per day?

(Edit: Point made above about our place in the market is true too - were just here to provide some extra liquidity for the banks... nothing more).
  • #535,998
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:33am Sep 8, 2011 10:33am
its time to long or wait?
  • #535,999
  • Edited 10:54am Sep 8, 2011 10:34am | Edited 10:54am
Quoting Yuchen
how can you post when you are suspended ?
btw, your posts are insightful and you said bull need to close up 1.4015 is correct so far
Yes i said that. Bull 1st reaction closed below 4005. Why didn't you follow my next post?
Bull 1st fail means bear 3x strong (math). Put down to 3981 and got more strong signal.
2nd attempt was a great mistake at 4025 hardline against strong signal.
If 1st attempt could touch that 4015 green line bull could prove its strong reaction.
If you follow my posts just read all of my posts. lol
Check my entire posts. You may learn something.

Now bull should lower the volatility at 397x-9x area before attempt to go above 4060.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #536,000
  • Sep 8, 2011 10:38am Sep 8, 2011 10:38am
long here
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