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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #26,801
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:49am Sep 6, 2011 3:49am
Quoting SIgurs
Based on what ?:

- miserable US growth figures
- US QE3
I am mostly a technical analyst and all my technicals indicate a strong recovery in the next 1 to 2 years to 100 USDJPY, but the fundamentals behind it are:

-Japanīs debt to GDP ratio is staggering. Over 120%.
-Rapidly aging population which makes solving the problem an impossibility.
-Yen printing as far as the eye can see.
-There will not be a QE3. It is not politically possible at this stage.
-Obama is on the way out. The Republican president will be a supply sider intent on bringing King Dollar and budget responsibility back. We will all be amazed at the changes coming for the US in the next year or two.
-I lived in the US for 35 years and learned one thing clearly: Never, ever sell the US short. They can stray for a while, but in the end they always return in a big way. A great example was Reagan after the Vietnam/Nixon/Carter malaise.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #26,802
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:52am Sep 6, 2011 3:52am
Quoting geniusztc
hey,my friend .i did not closed my positions @30 ,so sad.i was long @ 76.80.now SL@ 77.00 is a good or bad idea ? thank you
moving up nicely now, I don't have a crystal ball
a. SNB decision is very bad for UJ
b. Can hardly see BOJ not doing anything
So my idea is =>DOWN=>UP
76.30 and 76.50 could be nice levels
It's your own choice......
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,803
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:55am Sep 6, 2011 3:55am
Quoting SIgurs
Based on what ?:

- miserable US growth figures
- US QE3
Mate,If you dont like people going long,simply you just can keep your short and short till your target hit

You may call 75..74 73..or 60 whatever,but when you confident to post the number then you should give us a date also..it might happening this week,next month,next year etc and at that time you can coming here and with proudly said "I told you so" Or "As Expected" aka Untie 2 + 2 = 4
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,804
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:56am Sep 6, 2011 3:56am
Quoting Alorente
I am mostly a technical analyst and all my technicals indicate a strong recovery in the next 1 to 2 years to 100 USDJPY, but the fundamentals behind it are:

-Japanīs debt to GDP ratio is staggering. Over 120%.
-Rapidly aging population which makes solving the problem an impossibility.
-Yen printing as far as the eye can see.
-There will not be a QE3. It is not politically possible at this stage.
-Obama is on the way out. The Republican president will be a supply sider intent on bringing King Dollar and budget responsibility back. We will all be...
Most of what you say is true, and it's all old news. Debt to GDP is much more than you think.....something in the region of 230%, which is why Moodies downgraded them. More here
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,805
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:58am Sep 6, 2011 3:58am
Quoting geniusztc
hey,my friend .i did not closed my positions @30 ,so sad.i was long @ 76.80.now SL@ 77.00 is a good or bad idea ? thank you

i am soooo lucky . however,i closed my positions .
congrats!
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,806
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:59am Sep 6, 2011 3:59am
Quoting USD-Bear
moving up nicely now, I don't have a crystal ball
a. SNB decision is very bad for UJ
b. Can hardly see BOJ not doing anything
So my idea is =>DOWN=>UP
76.30 and 76.50 could be nice levels
It's your own choice......
yeah~~~~ i am so lucky .but you actually the pro .learn from you .and now lets c if the 77.30 can be the support .
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #26,807
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:05am Sep 6, 2011 4:05am
Quoting geniusztc
hey,my friend .i did not closed my positions @30 ,so sad.i was long @ 76.80.now SL@ 77.00 is a good or bad idea ? thank you

i am soooo lucky . however,i closed my positions .
Congrats Bro

@Daily,We've only touch "2 poin" of trendlines resistance and probably we might see another 76.xx soon?But this time with tight stop loss @ 76.70
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,808
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:09am Sep 6, 2011 4:09am
Quoting realjumper
Most of what you say is true, and it's all old news. Debt to GDP is much more than you think.....something in the region of 230%, which is why Moodies downgraded them. More here
Sorry. Meant to write 220%.

It is, in fact all old news, but that is the way the market works, it ignores the obvious for a time until it ceases to do so suddenly and for no apparent reason.

I see a move similar to the one from 1995 to 1997 during which USDJPY went from 77 to 146.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #26,809
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:12am Sep 6, 2011 4:12am
Quoting geniusztc
yeah~~~~ i am so lucky .but you actually the pro .learn from you .and now lets c if the 77.30 can be the support .

77.30 will fail to hold. Every single bounce for the past months has been a good short opportunity. Nothing fundamental has changed, Us still way weaker than Japan.

Will head back to it's channel.
  • #26,810
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:15am Sep 6, 2011 4:15am
Quoting Alorente
Sorry. Meant to write 220%.

It is, in fact all old news, but that is the way the market works, it ignores the obvious for a time until it ceases to do so suddenly and for no apparent reason.

I see a move similar to the one from 1995 to 1997 during which USDJPY went from 77 to 146.
Yeah I agree.....the 'market' has been too involved in the EZ crisis for the past 18 months.....then came along the USA debt ceiling crisis etc, so there are other things for the market to focus on......especially as it's common knowledge that Japan has a massive current account etc. Never-the-less, the focus will fall on Japan sooner or later and turn the tide. Is that time now? I doubt it......but now would be a great chance for BOJ to jump on the bandwagon and make their point!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,811
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:24am Sep 6, 2011 4:24am
Quoting realjumper
.....but now would be a great chance for BOJ to jump on the bandwagon and make their point!!!
They have missed earlier opportunities. See no reason why they wouldn't act in the same manner this time.
  • #26,812
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:26am Sep 6, 2011 4:26am
Quoting realjumper
Yeah I agree.....the 'market' has been too involved in the EZ crisis for the past 18 months.....then came along the USA debt ceiling crisis etc, so there are other things for the market to focus on......especially as it's common knowledge that Japan has a massive current account etc. Never-the-less, the focus will fall on Japan sooner or later and turn the tide. Is that time now? I doubt it......but now would be a great chance for BOJ to jump on the bandwagon and make their point!!!
It would be nice for the BOJ to jump in on it but it is not necessary. As the market sees in the next few months that the tide has indeed changed, they will jump in and ride the wave.

Even though the fundamentals are clearly behind this story, they are not the main reasons why I am heavily on the long side. As I mentioned in my post from yesterday where I predicted this, it is the accumulation of technical evidence that has me convinced that this is the real move. I am long and holding for a long tiume. Of course, I will trade around my position as I always do.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #26,813
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:30am Sep 6, 2011 4:30am
Quoting SIgurs
They have missed earlier opportunities. See no reason why they wouldn't act in the same manner this time.
That's right.....besides.....the Japanese are not known for 'shooting from the hip', they are more orderly than that!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,814
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:31am Sep 6, 2011 4:31am
Quoting Alorente
It would be nice for the BOJ to jump in on it but it is not necessary. As the market sees in the next few months that the tide has indeed changed, they will jump in and ride the wave.

Even though the fundamentals are clearly behind this story, they are not the main reasons why I am heavily on the long side. As I mentioned in my post from yesterday where I predicted this, it is the accumulation of technical evidence that has me convinced that this is the real move. I am long and holding for a long tiume. Of course, I will trade around my position...
Well, whatever happens, it's interesting to see this unfolding
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,815
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:33am Sep 6, 2011 4:33am
I am still remember the time when I've tried to contact and chat with some high pro forex analysis - tens years of experience which always shown in the media and tv ( Without reveal their name),at that time UJ around 90 and I was said its time to going short and most of them said you shouldnt short,everyone in the world are going buy the uptrend and we shouldnt fight against BOJ and we will see the lowest level around @ 84.xx ( I am forgot ) and we need agressively buy this pairs but it was breaking that level till close the lowest level 79.xx ?? and its time to act now keep buy and buy,but see whats happened?we reach the lowest low!People getting tired,some of them loss a lot of money because buy without stoploss,and now i see most of people mind has form a new mindset,BOJ failed,US Collapses,It wont going up anymore,time to short and short!No more heard some buy or even lack of buyers now,,

for this momment I would like to try and fight against the average people mind and lets see what will happening,of course am will protected myself with my value weapon that called "stop Loss" as always
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,816
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:42am Sep 6, 2011 4:42am
Quoting FXMindset
I am still remember the time when I've tried to contact and chat with some high pro forex analysis - tens years of experience which always shown in the media and tv ( Without reveal their name),at that time UJ around 90 and I was said its time to going short and most of them said you shouldnt short,everyone in the world are going buy the uptrend and we shouldnt fight against BOJ and we will see the lowest level around @ 84.xx ( I am forgot ) and we need agressively buy this pairs but it was breaking that level till close the lowest...
Very good point. When everyone is bearish, that usually means the move has run its course. The long, tight trading range for the past month indicates there are no more new bears to push the price down further. The break of the 200 SMA on the H4 chart is happening as we speak. Next we need to break the 60 EMA on the daily which is at 78.20 right now. The final one will be the break of the 200 SMA on the daily at 81.10 now. After a successful test of this, the trend will have changed and more and more bulls will jump on board to carry us to 100 and beyond.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #26,817
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:47am Sep 6, 2011 4:47am
Quoting Alorente
Very good point. When everyone is bearish, that usually means the move has run its course. The long, tight trading range for the past month indicates there are no more new bears to push the price down further. The break of the 200 SMA on the H4 chart is happening as we speak. Next we need to break the 60 EMA on the daily which is at 78.20 right now. The final one will be the break of the 200 SMA on the daily at 81.10 now. After a successful test of this, the trend will have changed and more and more bulls will jump on board to carry us to 100 and...
Thanks,But Personally I am not dare to makes that numbers,however keep trade with stop loss ya friends
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,818
  • Sep 6, 2011 4:58am Sep 6, 2011 4:58am
Quoting Alorente
Very good point. When everyone is bearish, that usually means the move has run its course. The long, tight trading range for the past month indicates there are no more new bears to push the price down further. The break of the 200 SMA on the H4 chart is happening as we speak. Next we need to break the 60 EMA on the daily which is at 78.20 right now. The final one will be the break of the 200 SMA on the daily at 81.10 now. After a successful test of this, the trend will have changed and more and more bulls will jump on board to carry us to 100 and...
200Sma is still far away. Looks like another sell off in the making to me, unable, yet again, to hold on to it's gains. What else is new ? lol
  • #26,819
  • Sep 6, 2011 5:29am Sep 6, 2011 5:29am
@FXMineset and @SIgurs thank you my friends. 77.30 did not hold .i can not understand why BOJ is so sucks if he is compared with SNB.
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #26,820
  • Sep 6, 2011 5:40am Sep 6, 2011 5:40am
Quoting geniusztc
@FXMineset and @SIgurs thank you my friends. 77.30 did not hold .i can not understand why BOJ is so sucks if he is compared with SNB.
Right 77.30 did not hold, however can you really call that a normal attempt at breaking the line and now an overall change in trend...I think we will see more ranging with more emphasis on the downside...my two cents, worth 2 cents (I entered the current trade after the spike and excitement)
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