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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #26,781
  • Sep 6, 2011 1:13am Sep 6, 2011 1:13am
What a seller
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,782
  • Sep 6, 2011 1:15am Sep 6, 2011 1:15am
Quoting pursuit_21
important to consider that there are more players in the market than just "retail" traders and hedge funds. there is a huge private wealth market and various other funds of varying sizes. also a number of corporations and businesses that actively trade fx through a number of local and international banks.
There is over $4 trillion per day exchanged on the forex markets.
  • #26,783
  • Sep 6, 2011 1:21am Sep 6, 2011 1:21am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Here's a tip: the Bank of Japan is not the bank you should be watching. It's all smoke and mirrors.
haha. how true.

something to note -- net positioning on the tokyo exchange is actually short yen. what matters more is what the distribution is in that basket.

if the banks choose to shift more heavily to eur and gbp...we may see lower levels in usdjpy without it affecting the overall yen basket enough for the boj to intervene.


something else to consider -- japan exports are also affected by the overall market sentiment, looking at ism data and purchasing data from major importers from japan may give a broader view of boj concerns.

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  • #26,784
  • Sep 6, 2011 1:25am Sep 6, 2011 1:25am
Quoting fosking
There is over $4 trillion per day exchanged on the forex markets.
yes, i realize that.

the point i was trying to make is that you can not base reasoning that institutional traders do not have stops to hunt below the current range, just because according to fxcm and oanda most retailers are long *yen crosses.

*just based on open interest from the TFE..we can see some big players are short yen.
  • #26,785
  • Sep 6, 2011 1:35am Sep 6, 2011 1:35am
for now the best way would be to sell the top of the range and buy the bottom -- i know it sounds obvious, but these kind of conditions and market movements will tempt many to get greedy with prematurely betting big on big breakout trades.

my 2c. stay opportunistic and let this pair play itself out.
  • #26,786
  • Sep 6, 2011 2:03am Sep 6, 2011 2:03am
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nice clean small setup. likely we'll see move to the bottom of the range, possible test last week's lows.
  • #26,787
  • Sep 6, 2011 2:05am Sep 6, 2011 2:05am
Have said it many moons ago; losing credibility due to verbal interventions and threats will lead to a stronger Jpy. Couple that to another round of US QE, lack of international support and flight to safe havens ..... a perfect recipe for another record high Jpy.

Imo, we'll soon visit the lower end of the channel and eventually drop below.
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  • #26,788
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:08am Sep 6, 2011 3:08am
SNB Sets a minimum exchange rate target of 1.2 per Euro and is prepared to buy unlimited amounts of foreign currency.

Now, that's a way to handle things. No tough talk ... action !
  • #26,789
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:15am Sep 6, 2011 3:15am
Quoting USD-Bear
imo key is USDX trend.
Got a view small long positions now at average price of 76.70 and will keep them as long as daily USDX close at or above 74.40

Although yesterday and today the level 74.55 showed no support or resistance bashing it both ways, I think it is very important.
Above 74.55 chances for bulls
Below 74.55 chances for bears

Attachment
all longs closed @ 77.30
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,790
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:17am Sep 6, 2011 3:17am
YAHHHH !!!!!!!!!
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,791
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:20am Sep 6, 2011 3:20am
finally some movement. added a short at 77.30. s/l 77.40.

all the best on your trades, trade safe.
  • #26,792
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:23am Sep 6, 2011 3:23am
Quoting USD-Bear
all longs closed @ 77.30
nicely traded. great r/r
  • #26,793
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:25am Sep 6, 2011 3:25am
The Swiss made it very clear that they will intervene to lower their currency, no messing around with Swissies.

Leaving the Jpy as the only safe haven ? Beware of the sell off on the Usd/Jpy. lol

"SNB Sets a minimum exchange rate target of 1.2 per Euro and is prepared to buy unlimited amounts of foreign currency"
  • #26,794
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:28am Sep 6, 2011 3:28am
I am still hold my long
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,795
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:33am Sep 6, 2011 3:33am
Quoting SIgurs
The Swiss made it very clear that they will intervene to lower their currency, no messing around with Swissies.

Leaving the Jpy as the only safe haven ? Beware of the sell off on the Usd/Jpy. lol

"SNB Sets a minimum exchange rate target of 1.2 per Euro and is prepared to buy unlimited amounts of foreign currency"
Yes USD and YEN the only safe haven so let it go down a while then buy it again awaiting a minimum exchange rate of 80 for UJ.........
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,796
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:36am Sep 6, 2011 3:36am
Quoting FXMindset
I am still hold my long
I am holding my long also. I believe this is the beginning of a long term bull market for the USDJPY.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #26,797
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:38am Sep 6, 2011 3:38am
Quoting Alorente
I am holding my long also. I believe this is the beginning of a long term bull market for the USDJPY.
Based on what ?:

- miserable US growth figures
- US QE3
  • #26,798
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:43am Sep 6, 2011 3:43am
Quoting USD-Bear
Yes USD and YEN the only safe haven so let it go down a while then buy it again awaiting a minimum exchange rate of 80 for UJ.........
In my opinion, Noda et al have missed many opportunities to push the Yen down......this is another such opportunity......sigh.......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,799
  • Edited 3:54am Sep 6, 2011 3:44am | Edited 3:54am
Quoting USD-Bear
Yes USD and YEN the only safe haven so let it go down a while then buy it again awaiting a minimum exchange rate of 80 for UJ.........
hey,my friend .i did not closed my positions @30 ,so sad.i was long @ 76.80.now SL@ 77.00 is a good or bad idea ? thank you

i am soooo lucky . however,i closed my positions .
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #26,800
  • Sep 6, 2011 3:49am Sep 6, 2011 3:49am
Quoting pursuit_21
finally some movement. added a short at 77.30. s/l 77.40.

all the best on your trades, trade safe.

s/l hit. done for the day.

all the best on your trades all, trade safe.
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