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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #26,761
  • Sep 5, 2011 10:38pm Sep 5, 2011 10:38pm
Quoting werido
could be the psych support below the last historical low. I think that the pair will not get even close to that because it's been more than a month since the last intervention and the original motivation behind it is even more in play now that Noda has even more responsibility for the Japanese economy and more control to weaken the yen.
Well yeah, but it's got to get past 76 first......so far it has only been able to dip a toe in the water under 76, and it soon popped out again!

Before we can contemplate anything below, we have to establish a foot hold below 76 first.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,762
  • Sep 5, 2011 10:40pm Sep 5, 2011 10:40pm
Quoting realjumper
I'm well aware of the long term down trend.....what I want to know is where this number "75" comes from? What causes you to target 75?
As weirdo just said, it's a psych level that is a nice round number that is below low where I'm willing to bet are many many stops. I'm only speculating. And I'm not in on this pair right now. If I was very very confident I would be, but I'm not. Again, just some speculation on my part.
  • #26,763
  • Sep 5, 2011 10:41pm Sep 5, 2011 10:41pm
Quoting realjumper
Well yeah, but it's got to get past 76 first......so far it has only been able to dip a toe in the water under 76, and it soon popped out again!

Before we can contemplate anything below, we have to establish a foot hold below 76 first.
That's why I'm a bull on this pair at the moment. There is too much keeping it above a downtrend. I don't think there will be a huge stop hunt either because the retail traders don't make enough of a dent to matter in this regard and the hedge funds can ride it out.
  • #26,764
  • Sep 5, 2011 10:42pm Sep 5, 2011 10:42pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
As weirdo just said, it's a psych level that is a nice round number that is below low where I'm willing to bet are many many stops.
Yeah there is that I suppose......to clear those stops just takes a 1 second spike, as we have seen. I tend to ignore such spikes because they don't constitute genuine PA in my opinion......guess it depends on how we each look at it
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,765
  • Sep 5, 2011 10:45pm Sep 5, 2011 10:45pm
Quoting werido
That's why I'm a bull on this pair at the moment. There is too much keeping it above a downtrend. I don't think there will be a huge stop hunt either because the retail traders don't make enough of a dent to matter in this regard and the hedge funds can ride it out.
Like 2+2=4ex, I'm not confident enough to take a position on this pair, either way, at the moment. It is interesting though
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,766
  • Sep 5, 2011 10:49pm Sep 5, 2011 10:49pm
Quoting realjumper
Yeah there is that I suppose......to clear those stops just takes a 1 second spike, as we have seen. I tend to ignore such spikes because they don't constitute genuine PA in my opinion......guess it depends on how we each look at it
The spikes we saw were the additional 10 billion dollars that Noda was strategically buying after the intervention to offset big selling and to sway the pair upwards. I'm not convinced it would pay for Noda to spike it downward to clear out the Long stops, however, he does have enough USD now to do this.
  • #26,767
  • Sep 5, 2011 10:49pm Sep 5, 2011 10:49pm
If it really drop to 75, it will be very good price to enter.. BoJ sure do something when it reach there..
  • #26,768
  • Sep 5, 2011 10:55pm Sep 5, 2011 10:55pm
Quoting HandsFx
If it really drop to 75, it will be very good price to enter.. BoJ sure do something when it reach there..
Maybe....maybe not. I would never buy based on what I think BOJ may do at a certain level......Only BOJ know what there will do, taking a position based on what we think BOJ will do is just gambling....imo
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,769
  • Sep 5, 2011 11:01pm Sep 5, 2011 11:01pm
Quoting realjumper
Maybe....maybe not. I would never buy based on what I think BOJ may do at a certain level......Only BOJ know what there will do, taking a position based on what we think BOJ will do is just gambling....imo
I will buy at 76 because I think realjumper and FXmindset will intervene. lol.
  • #26,770
  • Sep 5, 2011 11:04pm Sep 5, 2011 11:04pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I will buy at 76 because I think realjumper and FXmindset will intervene. lol.
Lol......I will be watching the market closely, and I will take strong action at the appropriate time......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,771
  • Sep 5, 2011 11:25pm Sep 5, 2011 11:25pm
Quoting werido
That's why I'm a bull on this pair at the moment. There is too much keeping it above a downtrend. I don't think there will be a huge stop hunt either because the retail traders don't make enough of a dent to matter in this regard and the hedge funds can ride it out.
important to consider that there are more players in the market than just "retail" traders and hedge funds. there is a huge private wealth market and various other funds of varying sizes. also a number of corporations and businesses that actively trade fx through a number of local and international banks.

if you're talking about "bucket shop" like oanda, fxcm (and 101 other brokers that give 500:1 leverage on $200 usd accounts) -- then yes its a drop in the bucket...

but there are plenty of clients that trade off local and international banking platforms, like barx, dbfx...then there are the true ecn online brokers...etc -- when you add them up, its a lot of $$.

for example, just in just the tokyo fin exchange -- here is a list of those trading on margin with them (all big players...variety of clients)

http://www.tfx.co.jp/en/trading/member_tfx.shtml

you can do your own research and check out their reports and daily stats.

if i'm not wrong currently net short yen positions are more than Y500bio.
  • #26,772
  • Sep 5, 2011 11:50pm Sep 5, 2011 11:50pm
Quoting realjumper
Maybe....maybe not. I would never buy based on what I think BOJ may do at a certain level......Only BOJ know what there will do, taking a position based on what we think BOJ will do is just gambling....imo
i agree completely with this view.

there are teams of people worldwide with inside track to knowing ahead of time when the boj will move, there are numerous quants that do micro-structure evaluations on predicting intervention based on price shock models and likelihood of the central bank intervening in the spot or forward market based on prevailing premiums...blaah blah..

for most of the traders here on ff...your only edge is your charts, your risk management and the fact that you don't have to trade till you really really like the setup. would be best to trade your edge.
  • #26,773
  • Sep 6, 2011 12:09am Sep 6, 2011 12:09am
Just wake up and what??
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,774
  • Sep 6, 2011 12:26am Sep 6, 2011 12:26am
Quoting FXMindset
Just wake up and what??
hi fxmindset, sorry i'm just curious and bored -- but i was looking at your twitter link from your signature.

you posted you went long 5hrs ago at 77.06 usdjpy. is this a limit order? because i don't have that price available. the highest offer was 76.97 on my chart. if that was market, you may want to switch brokers if they're overcharging you on the spread.
  • #26,775
  • Sep 6, 2011 12:50am Sep 6, 2011 12:50am
Quoting pursuit_21
hi fxmindset, sorry i'm just curious and bored -- but i was looking at your twitter link from your signature.

you posted you went long 5hrs ago at 77.06 usdjpy. is this a limit order? because i don't have that price available. the highest offer was 76.97 on my chart. if that was market, you may want to switch brokers if they're overcharging you on the spread.
no,that is my buy stop
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,776
  • Sep 6, 2011 12:57am Sep 6, 2011 12:57am
what is the matter with BOJ ? it is sure the BOJ is selling yen here by stealth. BOJ now just want to hold this level ,not let yen down .may be they changed the method of intervene. no trend twenty days .
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #26,777
  • Sep 6, 2011 12:58am Sep 6, 2011 12:58am
Quoting HandsFx
If it really drop to 75, it will be very good price to enter.. BoJ sure do something when it reach there..
Why would BOJ intervene at 75 ? Perhaps they have realized that intervention is not appropriate when:

- they have no international support to count on
- the US is probably heading towards another round of quantitive easing

Imo, the Japanese will just have to live with a stronger Jpy as intervention results are shortlived in todays uncertain and nervous markets.
  • #26,778
  • Sep 6, 2011 1:05am Sep 6, 2011 1:05am
Quoting SIgurs
Why would BOJ intervene at 75 ? Perhaps they have realized that intervention is not appropriate when:

- they have no international support to count on
- the US is probably heading towards another round of quantitive easing

Imo, the Japanese will just have to live with a stronger Jpy as intervention results are shortlived in todays uncertain and nervous markets.
Here's a tip: the Bank of Japan is not the bank you should be watching. It's all smoke and mirrors.
  • #26,779
  • Sep 6, 2011 1:07am Sep 6, 2011 1:07am
Quoting SIgurs
Why would BOJ intervene at 75 ? Perhaps they have realized that intervention is not appropriate when:

- they have no international support to count on
- the US is probably heading towards another round of quantitive easing

Imo, the Japanese will just have to live with a stronger Jpy as intervention results are shortlived in todays uncertain and nervous markets.
Because, every time yen is getting stronger, it will affect their economy badly as exporter country.. Each 1 Yen increase might cause them loss billions for big companies.. The stronger yen means their products will become more expensive. If they do nothing, at the end noone interested to import their expensive products..

Correct me if I'm wrong..
  • #26,780
  • Sep 6, 2011 1:12am Sep 6, 2011 1:12am
Quoting HandsFx
Because, every time yen is getting stronger, it will affect their economy badly as exporter country.. Each 1 Yen increase might cause them loss billions for big companies.. The stronger yen means their products will become more expensive. If they do nothing, at the end noone interested to import their expensive products..Correct me if I'm wrong..
I understand what you're saying, however one can't keep on spending billions on intervention when the endresult is a status quo at best. What's left of the early August operation ?
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