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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #26,701
  • Sep 2, 2011 8:20am Sep 2, 2011 8:20am
@realjumper,@fosking,@USDBear and Other....

Just Wake up and Got a Heavy Flu,I though my SL got hit (I even Dream of that ) Now I see that the trendline support was tested even the daily not closed yet,how do you think guys
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Daily.png Size: 25 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,702
  • Sep 2, 2011 8:35am Sep 2, 2011 8:35am
Quoting romstreets
Can someone just call Mr. Noda, ask his fin minister to intervine again
Forget about intervention.

If you are long manage your trade accordingly like you would any other.

Everything is else is just gravy.
  • #26,703
  • Sep 2, 2011 9:48am Sep 2, 2011 9:48am
imo key is USDX trend.
Got a view small long positions now at average price of 76.70 and will keep them as long as daily USDX close at or above 74.40

Although yesterday and today the level 74.55 showed no support or resistance bashing it both ways, I think it is very important.
Above 74.55 chances for bulls
Below 74.55 chances for bears

Attached Image
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,704
  • Sep 2, 2011 2:52pm Sep 2, 2011 2:52pm
Quoting USD-Bear
imo key is USDX trend.
Got a view small long positions now at average price of 76.70 and will keep them as long as daily USDX close at or above 74.40

Although yesterday and today the level 74.55 showed no support or resistance bashing it both ways, I think it is very important.
Above 74.55 chances for bulls
Below 74.55 chances for bears

Attachment
Ok,I am Blind with USD Index,Try Download..But Hemmm Maybe am stupid,But please kindly let me know the USDX later ya Mate

Have a nice weekend all
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,705
  • Sep 2, 2011 3:00pm Sep 2, 2011 3:00pm
Quoting FXMindset
Ok,I am Blind with USD Index,Try Download..But Hemmm Maybe am stupid,But please kindly let me know the USDX later ya Mate

Have a nice weekend all
just follow http://www.forexpros.com/quotes/us-d...advanced-chart if you have probs installing it in a fxcm-demo mate.
Have a good weekend!
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,706
  • Sep 2, 2011 3:59pm Sep 2, 2011 3:59pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I would like to see it go down to below 75 just to read everyone's comments. I bet we'll get alot of "wow" and "wtf's".

nice guy you are
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,707
  • Sep 2, 2011 5:22pm Sep 2, 2011 5:22pm
Over the next couple of weeks I'm going to keep an eye on the Neikki and the descending support line it's currently bouncing down.
A break of the support could pull UJ down with it.

USD/JPY / Neikki 225 Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj1.jpg Size: 121 KB
  • #26,708
  • Sep 2, 2011 5:50pm Sep 2, 2011 5:50pm
Quoting fosking
Over the next couple of weeks I'm going to keep an eye on the Neikki and the descending support line it's currently bouncing down.
A break of the support could pull UJ down with it.

USD/JPY / Neikki 225 Daily
Attachment
I watch the Neikki as well fosking, and I'm glad, but not surprised, that you watch it too.

UJ handled NFP quite well compared to the Swissy.....but it's early days I think.....next week should be interesting.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,709
  • Sep 2, 2011 5:57pm Sep 2, 2011 5:57pm
Quoting realjumper
I watch the Neikki as well fosking, and I'm glad, but not surprised, that you watch it too.

UJ handled NFP quite well compared to the Swissy.....but it's early days I think.....next week should be interesting.
Yeah, I dropped UJ today and made some great pips on the Swiss pairs.
Looking forward to next week, though I don't think UJ will see much action from me. It's just not moving lol.
  • #26,710
  • Sep 2, 2011 6:09pm Sep 2, 2011 6:09pm
Quoting fosking
Yeah, I dropped UJ today and made some great pips on the Swiss pairs.
Looking forward to next week, though I don't think UJ will see much action from me. It's just not moving lol.
Yes, it's a pity the UJ is so stagnant of late, but it will get back to normal sooner or later. Swissy has been good so I'll keep trading that instead of UJ until this pair moves again.

Have a great weekend
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #26,711
  • Sep 2, 2011 9:19pm Sep 2, 2011 9:19pm
Quoting USD-Bear
nice guy you are
Has nothing to do with being nice or not. Everyone has control of where to put there trades and stops. If someone doesn't want to lose then don't trade. All I'm saying is that there are probably many stops between 74 and 75.

You accusing me of being a 'not so nice' person is tantamount to calling yourself the same thing. The truth is a profitable trader is profiting off the losses of someone else. Traders losing will always be around as long as trading itself exists. Me saying I want to read their reactions doesn't make me a bad or good person. If anything, you're the not-so-nice person calling others evil for something of which you are doing the same. Unless you trade for any reason other than profiting. I'll assume you do though.
  • #26,712
  • Sep 2, 2011 9:32pm Sep 2, 2011 9:32pm
Earlier I commented that I'm not trading this pair, but if had to choose I would go short based on the long term trend and the nice filet mignon with lobster entree (short stops) between 74 and 75 for the big players. Just my hunch. I've been wrong before.
  • #26,713
  • Sep 2, 2011 10:04pm Sep 2, 2011 10:04pm
2+2 makes a valid point, 3 weekly doji's makes for large clusters of stops--gunning for those stops is bread and butter for many traders.

i think all the talk of Noda and his intervention is making this an even greater possibility -- the brokers, dealers, insti's, and banks are always talking -- would be very hard for the boj to "surprise" everybody -- and having a player that is sure to buy you out of your position if you push the low's and gun for those stops makes it very likely to push and test the range low's.

(for those that want to know more on stop guns and order flow, suggest you check out Darkstar on this forum... lets not forget this is a zero-sum game)

what makes this situation dangerous for many retail traders, and those just starting out is a matter of patience. many inexperienced traders will get sucked into the trap of starting out with a small - medium lots size and go long or short this pair (hopefully at the top or bottom of the range) -- but as time goes on and things go no where, they keep adding in to the trade size -- but the view has not been confirmed. -- pretty soon they end up adding to the lot size anticipating a massive move to reward them, and end up over trading.

for those ones that are new to trading -- do not get sucked in. stick to your risk measures and wait for the market to confirm your view -- if its right, then add to your trade.
  • #26,714
  • Sep 3, 2011 1:30am Sep 3, 2011 1:30am
http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=877&h=396
  • #26,715
  • Sep 3, 2011 2:42am Sep 3, 2011 2:42am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Has nothing to do with being nice or not. Everyone has control of where to put there trades and stops. If someone doesn't want to lose then don't trade. All I'm saying is that there are probably many stops between 74 and 75.

You accusing me of being a 'not so nice' person is tantamount to calling yourself the same thing. The truth is a profitable trader is profiting off the losses of someone else. Traders losing will always be around as long as trading itself exists. Me saying I want to read their reactions doesn't make me a bad or good...
that's not what you were addressing apparently you do not understand you're own words anyway have a nice life
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,716
  • Sep 3, 2011 3:59am Sep 3, 2011 3:59am
Quoting USD-Bear
that's not what you were addressing apparently you do not understand you're own words anyway have a nice life
USDX Close Higher bro,how do you think
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,717
  • Sep 3, 2011 4:54am Sep 3, 2011 4:54am
Quoting FXMindset
USDX Close Higher bro,how do you think
Well as I said I'll keep my longs as long as USDX closes above 74.40
74.56 has been a tricky level and longs have to be sure it stays north of that level.
My general view is that the bottom forming process of last weeks has been accomplished by the market and not by BOJ which increases chance of turning the downtrend.
In current market environment
-pressure on Chinese growth
-expected near 0 growth in coming years for US/Europe
-fierce pressure on EJ further endangering exports to Europe
-historic low on UJ further endangering exports to US
-fierce stock market drops
are all elements increasing the likelihood of returning interventions.
Possible "disorderly" Nikkei sell-of next Monday could well be the trigger to activate BOJ so yes my bias is long atm, but must confess I wrongfully experienced such a state of mind earlier above 80-level so market will tell....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,718
  • Sep 3, 2011 4:57am Sep 3, 2011 4:57am
Quoting USD-Bear
Well as I said I'll keep my longs as long as USDX closes above 74.40
74.56 has been a tricky level and longs have to be sure it stays north of that level.
My general view is that the bottom forming process of last weeks has been accomplished by the market and not by BOJ which increases chance of turning the downtrend.
In current market environment
-pressure on Chinese growth
-expected near 0 growth in coming years for US/Europe
-fierce pressure on EJ further endangering exports to Europe
-historic low on UJ further endangering exports to...
However Thanks for the Input ya Mate
Btw,I am still couldnt understand well about nikkei and Yen relation?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,719
  • Sep 3, 2011 5:31am Sep 3, 2011 5:31am
Quoting FXMindset
Btw,I am still couldnt understand well about nikkei and Yen relation?
look at foskin's earlier message
Further downturn of the Nikkei-225 endangers UJ, they do not like that....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #26,720
  • Sep 3, 2011 5:43am Sep 3, 2011 5:43am
btw FXMindset,

I noticed you are from China, You know what Index is best to follow Chinese large stocks, I follow the Hang Seng Index and the SZSE Composite Index but I often notice they can move in different directions?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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